DUBROVNIK—In 2016, representatives of twelve Central and Eastern European countries gathered in the Croatian city of Dubrovnik to lay the groundwork for an ambitious undertaking. By establishing the Three Seas Initiative—a coalition of states spanning the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic seas—they aimed to kick-start the development of regional energy, transport, and digital infrastructure to match Western European standards.
As the Three Seas Initiative’s now thirteen member states—Greece joined the group in 2023—meet in Dubrovnik for their annual summit this week, they can point to substantial progress. The initiative has evolved into an established international forum, raised awareness of regional development priorities, and launched a unique and successful investment fund.
Still, it is increasingly evident that the Three Seas Initiative will not achieve the momentum and ambitious results it seeks in the absence of a committed, full-time team dedicated to this cause. To truly succeed, it needs to transition from a loose platform into an operational entity with a permanent front office.
Stuck in a stop-and-go cycle
When the then presidents of Croatia and Poland, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and Andrzej Duda, convened regional heads of state to inaugurate the Three Seas Initiative in 2016, member states agreed that it would operate as an informal coalition. The aim was to avoid unnecessarily burdening the group with cumbersome bureaucracy and draining resources.
At the outset, there was value in this approach. It gave the initiative and its member states time to establish confidence in its structure and consolidate priorities. But since then, the limitations of this informal design have become increasingly apparent. A key drawback is that it has confined the initiative to a stop-and-go undertaking—driven primarily by its annual summit and business forum. Political commitment and energy peak as these events approach, only to wane for months—sometimes up to three-quarters of a year—after they conclude.
As a result, the initiative has never fully leveraged Central and Eastern Europe’s significant economic potential to drive infrastructure development forward. With 120 million citizens, the Three Seas region accounts for more than a quarter of the European Union’s population. Its combined gross domestic product exceeds $3 trillion and is growing at roughly twice the rate of Western Europe. Given that the region requires an estimated $1 trillion in infrastructure investment to reach Western European standards, these projects can be highly lucrative.
The Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund underscores that reality, reportedly generating annual returns approaching 15 percent. But while the fund operates full-time, it operates more like a private investment vehicle—seeking opportunities and deploying capital without necessarily broadcasting its activity to potential competitors.
From platform to powerhouse
To unlock its full potential, establishing a full-time Three Seas Initiative office or secretariat should be a top priority on the agenda of the upcoming Dubrovnik summit. A moderately sized office of less than a dozen personnel could fulfill a number of key functions on a full-time basis, including serving as a:
- Marketing hub: The office would market the region and its potential to investors globally. That itself is a full-time job, requiring advertising efforts and international engagement to generate awareness and interest in the region’s infrastructure opportunities.
- Repository of infrastructure opportunities: The office should also serve as a repository of existing, emerging, and potential infrastructure projects, and it should facilitate linkages between the stakeholders of those projects and those who could support or invest in them. Currently, there is limited information on the exact projects the initiative is undertaking—an obvious detriment to its ability to raise funds for these efforts.
- Convening agency: The office should take responsibility for supporting the host nation of the annual Three Seas Summit and Business Forum, which would add continuity to these events. The office could also host convenings in between these annual events to sustain a steady, uninterrupted drumbeat of Three Seas promotion.
- Generator of new Three Seas projects: As the central point of contact, the institutional memory, and de facto representative of the Three Seas, this office would naturally help generate, shape, and accelerate projects and policies that push the initiative forward.
A Three Seas office can be created through several possible institutional arrangements. It could be integrated into a reorganized Three Seas Initiative Investment Fund, set up as an independent stand-alone office, or built around the recently launched Three Seas Business Council—a self-financed business association that is already taking the lead on several fronts, particularly in information sharing and marketing.