TIVAT—Perhaps no country is closer to joining the European Union than Montenegro, which has ambitions to become the twenty-eighth member state by 2028. At the recent EU-Western Balkans Summit, held in the small coastal city of Tivat, Montenegro, both these ambitions and its momentum toward this goal were on full display.
The EU-Western Balkans Summit was the largest such event ever held in Montenegro, and the security and logistical undertaking to host it created in a palpable buzz in the town. Everywhere we looked, local produce stands and live music showed off Montenegro’s economic and cultural exports for the international delegations at the event.
Dozens of officials from EU member states, Western Balkan countries, and key EU institutions descended upon the scenic Adriatic town from June 4-6. The Atlantic Council’s Europe Center was also on the ground in Tivat hosting discussions on how drawing closer to the whole of Europe underpins the EU’s strategic priorities, and on how countries in the region can advance their own ambitions. Many in the Western Balkans are watching Montenegro’s momentum toward EU membership with great interest.
And for good reason. Montenegro’s “28 by ‘28” timeline includes the stated goal to close all thirty-three negotiating chapters with the EU by the end of this year. This timeline is not as outlandish as it might seem. So far, Montenegro has opened all, and closed fourteen, of the requisite thirty-three chapters. This includes the difficult chapter thirty-two on financial control, the closure of which highlights Montenegro’s work in building institutional trust and financial transparency. Both are essential in underwriting additional EU investment. The country is aggressively working to close the remaining chapters, and it is doing so with the support of many EU member states.
“Montenegro is a frontrunner,” said Davor Kunc, head of the European Investment Bank (EIB) representation to Montenegro, during a recent interview with the Europe Center’s #BalkansDebrief. “It’s not just a future member of the EU, but a future shareholder of the EIB.”
What Montenegro stands to gain
EU membership will provide Montenegro access to the EU single market, as well as stabilizing governance frameworks and diplomatic shielding as part of the European family.
Look to Croatia, which joined the EU in 2013, to see the tremendous economic benefits that EU membership can provide for countries from the region. This past year, Croatia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.4 percent, and its GDP per capita was around €32,450. Compare that to Montenegro’s 2.7 percent GDP growth and €22,580 per capita GDP in the same year. Joining the EU as the twenty-eighth member state would give Montenegro access free-flowing EU capital and labor markets, as well as to EU-wide cohesion funds that can help to realize the country’s economic potential.
Already, Montenegro has benefited from €46 million in pre-accession modernization funds through the EU’s Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance through 2027, and a prior €279 million between 2014 and 2020. The EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, which provides €6 billion in loans and grants to the whole region, includes a €383 million package to Montenegro, €89 million of which has already been disbursed upon successful completion of reforms.
Other EU institutions are also playing an important role. The European Investment Bank, which recently opened a new permanent office in Podgorica, has announced a €175 million commitment for infrastructure modernization along the Bar-Golubovci railway. This rail line links Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans with Central Europe along the pan-European corridor network.
What remains to be done
As Montenegro draws closer to EU membership, several challenges stand out for the country’s leaders to address.
Most pressing, malign influence from abroad will likely attempt to slow the country’s progress toward EU accession. Case in point: Days before the Tivat summit, a chartered flight from Belgrade with eighty-seven individuals linked to Serbia’s ruling party was turned away upon arrival at Tivat’s airport, deemed a security risk by Montenegrin authorities. Police and media reports allege that the travelers were reportedly pro-government Serbian activists equipped to protest and disrupt the summit.
Montenegro is scheduled to hold its next parliamentary elections on or before June 30, 2027, and there are already fears of Russian disinformation and meddling in the media space. As EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said earlier this year: “In the immediate term, foreign actors will not stop trying to interfere in democratic spaces, of this we can be very, very sure.” She went on to note that Montenegro is a potential target due to its ambitions to join the EU.
But beyond disinformation and other external concerns, Montenegro must still close nineteen chapters before negotiations can be finalized with the EU. This includes chapters on some of the most challenging issues required to join the EU, such as environmental rules, judicial reform, and economic competitiveness. The EU has especially hammered rule of law as a priority for the country.
Nonetheless, many Montenegrins we spoke with seemed unfazed by nefarious foreign actors and undeterred by the internal reforms still necessary to meet their “28 by ‘28” goal. The mood in Tivat reflected citizens’ confidence.