The US military runs on JP-8 jet fuel. Besides powering bombers, fighters, and helicopters it also fuels most US Army vehicles like M1 Abrams tanks and even the tactical generators that keep forward operating bases alive. Most engines on US Navy vessels can also use JP-8, if needed. All of NATO uses the same fuel for its aviation assets, meaning JP-8 is the lifeblood of modern military power.
What few realize is that producing jet fuel at scale depends on a little-known rare earth element: lanthanum. It does not go into jet fuel itself, but lanthanum enables the refining process that creates JP-8. In Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) units—the workhorse of a refinery—lanthanum stabilizes catalysts, keeps them from breaking down under high heat, enabling refineries to make jet fuel efficiently and flexibly. Without lanthanum, surging American jet fuel production becomes slower, costlier, and riskier.
Unfortunately, China controls most of the supply of this rare earth. Beijing has already weaponized minerals and materials, restricting exports of rare earths, critical metals, and chemicals to the United States. In a future crisis, China could easily restrict the flow of lanthanum into global supply chains, constraining America’s ability to make the fuel its armed forces need for warfighting.
If Washington is serious about tackling strategic mineral chokepoints, then lanthanum must be treated with the same urgency as semiconductors, batteries, and munitions. The questions are clear: Why does this obscure mineral matter so much for JP-8 production? And what steps can the United States take now to reduce its vulnerability and secure a reliable supply?
Why lanthanum matters
Producing jet fuel is more than just pumping crude oil into a refinery to get JP-8. Refineries depend on a series of high-temperature processes to break heavy hydrocarbons into lighter products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Lanthanum does not enter the fuel itself, but is embedded in a catalyst called zeolite Y to allow FCC units to run hotter, longer, and more efficiently. Thus, lanthanum gives refineries the flexibility to shift output toward jet-fuel range specifications when demand rises.
Without lanthanum, refineries can still make jet fuel, but there is a major trade-off: Catalysts wear out faster, output quality drops, and costs rise. Without lanthanum, it means less hydrocracking flexibility when the Pentagon or NATO allies need to surge JP-8 production. This may look like a minor chemistry problem, but it becomes a major upstream supply chain problem in a crisis, with economic and military readiness ramifications.
A supply chain exposed
Think of the lanthanum supply chain as four basic links: (1) lanthanum salts (usually carbonate or chloride), (2) catalyst producers who incorporate lanthanum-stabilized zeolite Y into finished FCC catalysts, (3) US refineries that run FCC units, and (4) the resulting product slate, including jet-fuel blending components. Recent industrial progress has added a domestic node at the first link: rare earths company MP Materials now produces lanthanum carbonate designed for FCC catalysts, with technical data showing its circuits meet FCC specifications. This is welcome progress because it diversifies supply inside the United States.
Yet the bigger picture remains sobering. Even with new US capacity, a large share of FCC-grade lanthanum is still imported, including Chinese-origin streams. If US–China tensions flare over tariffs, Taiwan, or the South China Sea, lanthanum could easily be added to Beijing’s export-control list.
The flexibility channel
A lanthanum shortage would not ground US military operations overnight. Refineries and catalyst vendors have various workarounds. But the effect would be insidious: it would erode operational flexibility and raise costs precisely when fuel markets are already tight.
One lever is to reduce rare-earth zeolite content or shift to lanthanum-lean formulations. Industry guidance is clear about the trade-off: reducing rare earth on the zeolite tends to reduce activity (at a given zeolite content and matrix activity) and can shift product qualities (i.e., octane/gasoline olefinicity on the gasoline side). These effects must be compensated by refiners through operating changes or additives, but those adjustments cost money, sacrifice performance, and take time.
The immediate impact of a lanthanum squeeze would show up as higher catalyst costs, shorter catalyst lifetimes, and modest penalties in efficiency—especially in FCC units run at high severity. The broader refinery can still meet jet and distillate targets by leaning more on hydrocracking and hydrotreating, but at the cost of hydrogen, severity, and potentially throughput changes. Accordingly, lanthanum exposure is more appropriately conceptualized not as a singular point of failure but as a parameter of operational flexibility and cost, marginal at the unit level yet consequential in aggregate across platforms.
A US plan for mitigation
The good news is that the United States is not powerless against this jet fuel production vulnerability. Unlike some rare earths used in advanced electronics, lanthanum’s role is concentrated in bulk catalyst production. That means three steps must be taken by US policymakers to improve economic and military resilience.
First, treat lanthanum as a strategic input. Just as the military pre-positions fuel and munitions, refineries supplying JP-8 should maintain small but reliable buffers of lanthanum-bearing catalysts. Catalyst change-outs can be aligned with supply visibility, so units are never caught short during a crisis.
Second, pre-qualify catalyst alternatives. Refiners can and should work with catalyst vendors to test lanthanum-lean or substitute formulations now. Research grants should also be provided to scientists trying to identify more efficient FCC processes with cheaper and better alternative materials. If those options become feasible, switching becomes an administrative choice instead of an improvised experiment when China imposes a stress test.
Third, expand domestic production. Companies like MP Materials are bringing new lanthanum products to market, but scale matters. Clear demand signals from the Pentagon—whether through the Defense Production Act, long-term contracts, or National Defense Stockpile purchases—can encourage investment and ensure at least two suppliers can meet US needs.
Lanthanum may be obscure, but it is a pressure point in the United States’ fuel lifeline. Without it, refineries lose the flexibility to surge JP-8 production—the single fuel that powers weapons systems across the joint force. China’s control over most of the world’s supply makes this a vulnerability that cannot be ignored.
Strategic competition is not only about missiles, ships, and bases. It is also about the hidden enablers that make joint warfighting effective. US leaders must scrutinize every step of its supply chains, from minerals to munitions, and ask where adversaries could exploit a dependency. Lanthanum is one such chokepoint. Addressing it now is far cheaper than discovering in a crisis that China holds the key to America’s fuel supply.
Macdonald Amoah is a communications associate at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.
Morgan Bazilian is the director of the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines and a former lead energy specialist at the World Bank.
Jahara “FRANKY” Matisek is a US Air Force command pilot, a fellow at the US Naval War College, and a fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. The views in this article are his own and not the official position of the US Naval War College, US Air Force, Department of Defense, or any part of the US government.
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Image: An F-15C Eagle assigned to the 493rd Fighter Squadron takes off in support of exercise Point Blank 20-1 at Royal Air Force Lakenheath, England, Jan. 30, 2020. Point Blank is a bilateral exercise that enhances professional relationships and improves overall coordination with allies and partner militaries. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Airman 1st Class Mikayla Whiteley)
