As the Arab uprisings begin their fourth year, the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East continues to track and analyze the political and economic aspects of these transitions. Two new publications examine current trends and attempt to gauge future developments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen. In The State of the Arab Transitions: Hope Resilient Despite Many Unmet Demands, Mirette F. Mabrouk and Stefanie A. Hausheer argue that despite setbacks, citizen demands for freedom, greater economic opportunity and dignity have only grown in strength and will continue to spur demands for reform. Mabrouk and Hausheer also note Arab calls for greater US engagement in supporting the transitions, despite anger at US policy in the region.
In the second publication, The Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring, senior fellow Mohsin Khan examines Arab countries in transition, as well as the monarchies of Jordan and Morocco. He contends that politics have trumped economics, despite the persistent economic grievances which prompted the revolutions. Khan goes on to argue that since politics and economics move in tandem, political stability is difficult, if not impossible to achieve if the economy is stagnating. While Arab governments initially adopted various populist economic policies to appease an increasingly restive public, some have decided to work with international financial institutions to implement sound macroeconomic policies which would ensure external financing and help brighten their economic futures.