A crisis badly handled in the early days could weaken Trump and the US hand for years afterward. Any number of crises are just waiting to happen. For example, further North Korean nuclear testing or missile launches are becoming routine, but a North Korea that initiates a conventional military provocation against Seoul and threatens to use nuclear weapons would be a test of the next administration’s ability to defuse a highly combustible and consequential crisis. President-elect Trump has made it harder for himself by alienating the US Intelligence Community even before he assumes office.

If Marine le Pen wins the French Presidency in April, it’s hard to see how the EU survives.  A Wilders victory in the Netherlands in March would rock the European Project even without a Le Pen victory but not lead to its breakup. Though less likely, a Merkel defeat in Germany’s autumn elections — and she’s already in Putin’s crosshairs — could dramatically increase Europe’s instability. In any event, Brexit will soon be all consuming for Brussels.

President-elect Trump envisions a breakthrough in US-Russia relations that could reduce risks, but there’s a danger that Putin could be invigorated by too great a US play for better ties and escalate the conflict in Ukraine, or create provocations elsewhere in the Balkans or Kazakhstan.  A hybrid war move on a NATO Baltic state could be the sleeper risk of the year, testing how Trump’s America understands its alliance commitments.

Trump has already offended the US’s traditional allies by saying he will abrogate US participation in TPP as one of his first acts of state. Meanwhile, tensions with China are escalating over Taiwan and possible US trade restrictions.  If Trump doesn’t demonstrate he has a strategy for US engagement in Asia, China will fill the vacuum.

A political-military triumph for a corrupt Assad regime could leave it presiding uneasily, incompetently, and brutally over all or a significant part of a destitute country — making it a breeding ground for terrorists, insurgents, and fleeing refugees. Iranian and Russian influence would hold sway from Tehran to Beirut. Ironically, any US attempts to re-negotiate the Iranian nuclear agreement could bolster Iranian hardliners.

As with the 1998-2003 Second Congo War, a worsening DRC political conflict could draw in other African states and armed groups and result in huge casualties. Further north, the South Sudan civil conflict after three years has the potential to turn into a full-scale genocide. New migrant waves could further unsettle Europe.

Handled clumsily, the US-Mexico relationship could spin out of control if the US insists on tearing up NAFTA, building a wall, and deporting millions. Mexico would retaliate with stopping joint cooperation on narcotics. Elsewhere the political crisis in Brazil has yet to run its course, and Venezuela seems destined to be on the brink of chaos and disaster for years.

Free trade and democratic rule are likely to be dealt further blows in 2017, but a full scale US-China trade war would end globalization for the foreseeable future, fracturing the global order. A populist-run Europe could validate the spread of illiberal democracies elsewhere.

Most incoming US presidents want to cut back on US commitments abroad, but never figure out a way. Trump may be different because he’s set on taking a business-like approach to make only commitments that pay.  By avoiding costly engagements, however, he may at the same time leave a leadership vacuum on issues that have required US and Western leadership: climate change, state failure, proliferation, and terrorism.

Scientists have been warning for some time that the world is overdue for a severe pandemic. A pathogen that is easily transmissible could result in millions dying in a very short span. In the panic that ensues, economies would also suffer major setbacks as international and local transportation is halted.

US power has receded and turned inward. No one is in charge of organizing coalitions to solve the big global challenges. A medieval-type arrangement has emerged, consisting of numerous power centers, some of which are not states and don’t necessarily have an incentive to cooperate.

Big states begin to fail due to increased climate change impacts, slower global growth, and increased populations. The failed states are no longer the ones nobody cares about: They are the big ones like Pakistan or Nigeria or Egypt.

US, Russia, and China routinely sponsor proxy wars. Tactical nukes, robots, cyber and, artificial intelligence are the weapons of choice.

Chronic diseases, particularly cancers, diabetes, and heart diseases have been conquered. Life expectancy is in the 90s for people in wealthier countries, pushing up pension and healthcare costs to unsupportable levels and forcing governments to cut way back on education, R & D, and defense.

Many unemployed are highly educated, but have lost their jobs to new technologies. Cybercrime is the popular option for the young and out-of-work.

Designer babies are the norm in China and becoming popular elsewhere, prompting the US and other Western governments to give parents guidelines on how to have “better” babies.

US and European countries as well as China and Russia have built firewalls, preventing the free flow of information. Scientific exchanges are down. The internet mirrors the growing spheres of influence.

Alternative energies have replaced fossil fuels with the startling advances in battery storage. Vehicles are all electric and power is generated by alternative energies. The transition was very fast. Oil-producing nations and companies were caught off guard and are paying a steep price.

In the Middle East, Iran decided to break out and develop nuclear weapons at the end of the 10-year agreement. Consequently, Saudi Arabia and Turkey also started developing nuclear weapons. In East Asia, the US pullback spurred Japan and South Korea to quickly become nuclear powers.

Suicide human bombers are out; suicide robots are in. Nonstate actors rival states in their use of cyber to disable major infrastructure.

Onward and upward,