As Ukrainian and Russian officials prepare to renew peace talks next week in Abu Dhabi, there remains no clarity on the crucial issue of security guarantees for Ukraine to prevent a future Russian invasion. Until this issue is effectively addressed, there can be no real prospect of a sustainable peace in Eastern Europe.
The most obvious solution would be Ukrainian membership of NATO, but Moscow is staunchly opposed and there appears to be very little appetite within the alliance itself to integrate Ukraine. Throughout the past year and a half of faltering negotiations, the emphasis has shifted away from NATO membership toward security commitments from a grouping of partner countries known as the Coalition of the Willing. However, Russia’s refusal to permit the deployment of European troops to postwar Ukraine severely limits the potential impact of this Coalition.
There is also widespread skepticism in Kyiv over the value of any written guarantees. Ukrainians have bitter memories of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which saw the country hand over what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for “security assurances” from fellow signatories Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Those guarantees turned out to be worthless when Russia invaded Ukraine two decades later.
With no clear pathway toward the kind of alliance obligations or treaty commitments that could convince Putin to abandon his imperial ambitions, many Ukrainians believe their country’s future security will ultimately hinge on their own ability to defend themselves. This will require a strong Ukrainian military backed by an extensive domestic defense industry integrated into the wider European security system.
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The foundations of a powerful Ukrainian defense sector are already in place. The country’s defense manufacturing output has grown from around $1 billion a year at the start of the full-scale invasion to a projected $55 billion in 2026. Ukrainian weapons are tested in combat every day, with domestically produced drones now inflicting the majority of Russian losses on the battlefield. Ukraine’s defense industry is also economically competitive, with companies producing high-quality weapons systems for a fraction of the price paid by NATO countries for equipment with similar specifications.
A key challenge is financing. Ukrainian defense industry companies can currently produce significantly more than the state can afford to purchase. This unused capacity is a waste that wartime Ukraine cannot afford. Some of Ukraine’s partners are attempting to bridge the funding gap. In recent years, a number of countries have begun financing additional production at Ukrainian defense tech companies as a direct form of military aid. This model, which was first pioneered by Denmark, boosts Ukraine’s defense industry in a cost-effective manner while also getting weapons and equipment to the front lines with minimal delays.
In parallel, Kyiv is attempting to boost the domestic defense sector by opening up export markets. Enabling defense industry exports could help to keep Ukrainian factories busy, while also funding new research and giving partner governments a more direct stake in Ukraine’s security. After years of keeping all weapons at home, Ukraine announced new legislation in 2025 allowing controlled sales of surplus equipment to partner countries. Progress has been relatively slow so far, with only a handful of Ukrainian defense industry companies securing the necessary permission to begin exporting.
Critics have noted that features such as high fees on all defense sector exports are holding the industry back. Some have warned that these measures could make it unprofitable for companies to export. A promised fast track for export licenses has also been hampered by administrative delays relating to categories of weapons and potential destination countries.
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The sale of Ukrainian weapons to partner nations is not just a matter of generating revenues for the domestic defense industry and boosting the state budget. It can also strengthen Ukraine’s leverage by expanding the country’s involvement in Europe’s security sector.
Joint ventures between Ukrainian companies and their European counterparts are contributing to this process. Over the past year, a number of initiatives have been unveiled focusing on the drone industry. This makes sense, as Ukraine has unrivaled experience in the field of drone warfare, while European partners have the technological capabilities and financing to make the most of Ukraine’s expertise. The result is cooperation that deepens ties and places Ukraine at the heart of Europe’s evolving security architecture.
Some will argue that a country at war should not be looking to export weapons at all. But this overlooks the strategic benefits of building defense sector cooperation with Ukraine’s European partners. Export deals, joint ventures, and partnership agreements all boost Ukraine’s defense sector capacity while also integrating the country into the wider European security ecosystem.
Kyiv should now prioritize cutting export fees and implementing fast-track procedures so its companies can compete in Europe. In parallel, European governments should go beyond financing Ukrainian defense production for use in Ukraine itself and start purchasing Ukrainian systems for their own armies. The goal should be to make Ukraine not only a recipient of aid but an indispensable asset to its allies.
Ukrainians have little faith in written guarantees and are well aware that nobody is going to fight Russia on their behalf. Instead, the most realistic security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian military backed by a powerful domestic defense industry. Closer cooperation with Ukraine’s European partners can help Kyiv achieve this goal.
Leonid Baratz is an investigative journalist and Middle East correspondent for Ukrainian national television and radio who also writes for Israel’s BeSheva media group covering diplomacy and security in the region.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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