From Leipzig Airport to the Black Sea, Russia’s campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe has been escalating at an alarming rate in recent months. This is straining the definition of “hybrid warfare,” which is usually understood to mean actions by hostile states that blur the line between peace and war.
So far, European leaders have responded with strong statements but have stopped short of imposing any additional costs on the Kremlin. This is unlikely to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin. On the contrary, critics of Europe’s underwhelming response argue that empty talk will only encourage further Russian escalation.
With Russia growing visibly bolder, there are now fears that the Kremlin could seek to test NATO’s resolve in the coming months by launching a limited incursion into alliance territory. Danish military intelligence recently released a threat assessment warning that Putin might attack a NATO state bordering Russia. Other Western intelligence agencies have echoed these concerns.
The risk of a conventional war between Russia and NATO remains low, but even the most conservative analysts expect the current trajectory of escalating Russian aggression to continue. Moscow’s aim is to exploit divisions within NATO and fuel European insecurity by discrediting the alliance’s collective security commitment. The Kremlin hopes that by doing so, it can discourage European support for Ukraine and isolate Kyiv.
Russia is using the “boiling the frog” method, former NATO Assistant Secretary-General Camille Grand told Politico Europe recently. “What we found shocking yesterday becomes the norm tomorrow, and so on until you find yourself in a much more intense situation. They are testing the limits.”
Stay updated
As the world watches the Russian invasion of Ukraine unfold, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council expert insight and analysis on Ukraine twice a week directly to your inbox.
Europe’s ability to respond is restrained by widespread reluctance to risk a full-scale conflict with Russia. However, there are many steps that can be taken without inviting a wider war. For example, European leaders can start by abandoning euphemistic talk of “hybrid warfare” in favor of more direct language that reflects the reality of Russia’s attacks on Europe.
Progress must also be made toward solidifying a new defense architecture for Europe. During her State of the Union address in September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen championed the creation of a European Security Council bringing EU member states together with Britain, Norway, Canada, Ukraine, and other partners. This is a promising initiative that has the potential to produce a firmer and more united European response to Russian gray zone aggression.
Eurasia Center events
Europe can also draw upon Ukraine’s extensive experience of countering aggressive Russian actions beyond the battlefield. From infrastructure sabotage to cyberattacks and disinformation, many of the Russian tactics currently being employed against Europe were first honed in Ukraine.
Ukraine can help Europe by sharing the lessons it has learned over the years while working to identify Russian propaganda narratives, expose disinformation networks, and coordinate effective communications strategies. The Kremlin is currently attempting to polarize European societies and influence public discourse ahead of upcoming elections. This includes funding and amplifying pro-Russian populist parties with the goal of undermining support for Ukraine. Kyiv is all too familiar with these tactics.
Meanwhile, Russia is increasingly recruiting so-called “disposable agents” across Europe via online platforms to commit acts of sabotage, arson, vandalism, and attacks on critical infrastructure. Kyiv has significant experience investigating and identifying the networks used in these operations and has managed to counter recruitment efforts. European law enforcement and security agencies can learn much from their Ukrainian counterparts, while greater integration and data-sharing could undermine the effectiveness of the Kremlin’s tactics.
Ukrainian efforts to safeguard the country’s critical infrastructure against Russian attack also offer important pointers for Europe. From the energy sector to transportation, communications, and digital services, Ukraine has been forced to defend its national infrastructure on a daily basis for over a decade. European countries are already drawing on this Ukrainian experience, but more can be done to make sure Europe’s highly vulnerable infrastructure front is as secure as possible.
Opinions differ over exactly how far Putin is prepared to go in his shadow war against Europe, but there seems to be little prospect of a reduction in tensions while the invasion of Ukraine continues. With Russia set to remain a threat, European leaders must find ways to defend their countries while projecting strength in a manner that will prove convincing to the Kremlin. Ukraine is ideally placed to help.
Ryan Prior is an author and journalist. He has written for CNN, Daily Beast, USA Today, and others, with experience reporting on the ground in Ukraine. He is a Council on Foreign Relations term member and holds an MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School. Maria Kovach is strategic partnerships manager at the Serpens Center for International Security and an advisor to the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, with over ten years of experience in Ukraine’s government communications, public diplomacy, and Euro-Atlantic integration.
Further reading
Image: Tdpa via Reuters Connect