JUST IN
It’s out of the chamber and aimed at the Kremlin. New legislation that could impose major costs on Moscow’s trading partners cleared the US Senate today, at a time when the Russian economy is teetering and Ukraine is increasingly striking behind Russian lines. The 86-11 vote sends the bill, which has President Donald Trump’s blessing, to the US House. We turned to our experts to break down what exactly the act would accomplish and its prospects of becoming law.
TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY
- John Herbst (@JohnEdHerbst): Senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine
- Leslie Shedd (@leslieshedd): Nonresident fellow at the Eurasia Center and former congressional aide, most recently at the House Foreign Affairs Committee
- Charles Lichfield (@clichfield1): Director of economic foresight and analysis and C. Boyden Gray senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center
- Maia Nikoladze (@Mai_Nikoladze): Deputy director at the Economic Statecraft Initiative within the GeoEconomics Center
The prospects
- John characterizes today’s vote as “a significant step forward” in “putting additional pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his aggression in Ukraine.”
- The bill now goes to the House of Representatives, where it faces an uncertain future. “Members on both sides of the aisle have expressed reservations” about the legislation, Leslie points out. That includes “some Democrats who have a history of strong support for Ukraine,” such as Congressman Gregory Meeks (D-NY), who are balking at expanding Trump’s tariff authority.
- Still, Leslie predicts that the bill “will pass with large bipartisan support,” in part because “support for Ukraine remains very strong in Congress on both sides of the aisle.”
The targets
- The bill—named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who spent his last days on a trip to Kyiv advocating for its passage—would allow the executive branch to impose new “secondary tariffs” on the top five importers of Russian oil and gas.
- “Russia and other US adversaries have spent years developing sophisticated methods to circumvent American sanctions,” Leslie tells us. “Expanding the president’s tariff authority opens up new avenues for the US government to choke off the economic lifeblood fueling Putin’s war machine.”
- So who’s in the line of fire? Charles, who has just published a new assessment of the state of Russia’s economy, points out that a country can only be targeted with new tariffs if it “knowingly makes new purchases after enactment,” which would effectively exclude “almost every European country, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.” That leaves China and India as “the only large markets” that could be in US crosshairs, “provided Trump decides to use” the authority.
- Maia notes that the bill also includes a provision to sanction Russia’s “shadow fleet” vessels, which will require tighter enforcement in “coordination with allies, private companies, and international maritime organizations.”
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The big picture
- If the bill becomes law, the big question will be how Trump deploys it. The Supreme Court struck down his use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act earlier this year, and “his administration is in the process of rebuilding the tariff wall with other preexisting mandates,” Charles notes. The legislation’s allowance for “secondary tariffs” of up to 100 percent “can make a material difference in the tariff structure.”
- The bill “hands Trump another tariff hammer,” Charles says, “but I do believe the exemptions will stop him from using it willy-nilly. Plus, he has his truce with China.”
- The execution also depends on Trump’s willingness to antagonize the Kremlin. John says that while “Trump seemed to be moving” in the direction of applying more pressure on Putin by granting Ukraine a license to make Patriot interceptors, he has sent mixed signals on implementation.
- Ultimately, John tells us, “passage of the sanctions bill puts more pressure on the White House to put in place tariffs that would further undermine a doddering Russian economy that already is having trouble financing Kremlin aggression in Ukraine.” That, in turn, would constitute “a real legacy for Lindsay Graham” and enable Trump to “become the peacemaker ending the largest war in Europe since” World War II.
Further reading
Mon, Jul 27, 2026
What the latest US sanctions bill means for Russia—and for China, India, and Iran
Dispatches By Maia Nikoladze
If it passes, the bill would affect several major countries that currently trade with Russia, and those effects should be factored into US planning.
Wed, Aug 5, 2026
Russia will sacrifice its civilian economy on the altar of the war effort
Dispatches By
As the Central Bank of Russia runs out of options and bad loans accumulate on balance sheets, the Kremlin continues to privilege war-linked sectors.
Tue, Jul 21, 2026
Ukraine is winning. Here’s what it needs to finish the job.
Dispatches By Leslie Shedd
A recent trip to Kyiv, Dnipro, and Pavlohrad reveals that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is reaching a turning point.
Image: US Senator Jim Risch (R-ID) and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speak as Zelenskyy arrives for a meeting with U.S. senators on the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act at the US Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 28, 2026. REUTERS/Eric Lee