What to know about the new US-Saudi nuclear deal
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It’s a bit more complicated than 1-2-3. The Trump administration has reportedly agreed to a 123 agreement with Saudi Arabia, under which the US would send nuclear technology, material, and equipment to the kingdom. In addition to advancing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power system, the reported thirty-year deal raises the possibility of establishing uranium enrichment in the kingdom, capabilities that could one day be used to make a nuclear weapon. With so many factors in the mix, you can count on our experts to explain what this all means below.
TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY
- Jennifer T. Gordon: Director of the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative and the Daniel B. Poneman chair for nuclear energy policy at the Global Energy Center
- Allison Minor: Director of the Project for Middle East Integration and former director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the US National Security Council in the first Trump administration
- Matthew Kroenig (@MatthewKroenig): Nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and former US official in the Department of Defense and the intelligence community during the Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations
Picking the right partner
- “A 123 agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia is not only a win for the US nuclear energy industry,” Jennifer says. “It is also a victory for the US-led global nonproliferation regime.”
- For years, as Saudi leaders have stated their intention to purchase technologies for their civil nuclear program, Jennifer explains, “the only question has been whether the kingdom would choose to work with the US and its allies, or whether it would turn to Russia or China.”
- “US involvement ensures nonproliferation cooperation,” Jennifer argues, giving the US continued influence over the Saudi nuclear program that it may not have otherwise.
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The Iran influence
- Initial negotiations over a 123 agreement with Saudi Arabia began years ago, Allison points out, “as part of a larger package that included Israeli normalization.” But the Iran war has “lent greater political urgency to the negotiations, as Washington has sought to reassure a partner that is increasingly wary of US security commitments and frustrated by the lack of consultation.”
- “Saudi Arabia has long sought to become the dominant power in the Middle East,” Allison argues. But the Iran war has “emboldened Tehran and threatened the Gulf in ways that are deeply counterproductive to this goal.”
- With this deal, Riyadh is affirming its continued ambitions to be the major regional player. As part of this, the deal “sends a powerful message” to Iran, Allison tells us, by keeping the door open for uranium enrichment inside Saudi Arabia.
Enrichment questions
- While the deal could reportedly allow for a “black box” uranium enrichment facility in the kingdom, the site would be “run by US companies,” Jennifer says, and the need for that site would only be decided after a two-year study.
- Matt voices caution here: “It would be a mistake … to allow enrichment in Saudi Arabia as part of any deal.”
- Washington’s strategy has long been to “encourage peaceful uses of nuclear technology, while restricting sensitive fuel-making technology” even to friendly nations like South Korea, Matt notes.
- While the Trump administration “is right to strengthen its relationship with Riyadh,” Matt argues, exporting enrichment capabilities runs against US nonproliferation policy that has been “imposed on friends and enemies alike.”
- The two-year study of the “black box” site, Matt advises, “should conclude that Saudi Arabia can rely on imported fuel-cycle services like the many other countries around the world with truly peaceful nuclear programs. This would be a much better outcome than exporting a bomb-making capability to an additional country in an already volatile region.”
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Image: US President Donald Trump is welcomed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025. (REUTERS/Brian Snyder)