WASHINGTON—State elections this month in Germany will almost certainly weaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal coalition and raise new obstacles to his promised reforms. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and his coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are facing significant losses in the three state elections. Meanwhile, the most consequential state election comes first: in Sachsen-Anhalt, the right-wing nativist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is within reach of a parliamentary majority.
German voters go to the polls in Sachsen-Anhalt on September 6, with elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (also in eastern Germany) two weeks later. An AfD parliamentary majority in Sachsen-Anhalt would almost certainly consume German politics for the coming months and fuel existing speculation that Merz’s chancellorship is in danger. Even if the AfD has a strong showing in the elections, such speculation is probably premature. Merz and his coalition are likely to remain in place at least through mid-2027. But stability will come at a cost. The much-needed economic and social reforms that Merz had promised are likely to be watered down, and weak government will reinforce the public’s deep dissatisfaction with the political establishment.
Outcomes ranging from bad to worse
The Merz government started the year facing public dissatisfaction with continued economic stagnation, a threatening international environment, and the coalition’s failure to present a credible answer to these challenges. The war in Iran has contributed to increases in energy and food prices and deepened economic concerns, including reports that German companies are shedding more than ten thousand jobs each month. Merz’s mishandling of a cabinet shakeup in July intensified already widespread doubts about his leadership, and his public approval has reached record lows. The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are polling around 22 percent in a hypothetical election—down from 28.5 percent in the 2025 federal election. The SPD is faring even worse, with recent national polling showing it at around 12 percent, down 4 percentage points from its record-low showing in 2025.
In contrast, the AfD continues to rise in national polls. It now stands at nearly 30 percent nationally and is poised to make gains in all three September elections. Its support is rising even as the party becomes more extreme. It has broadened its focus from a demand to end migration to a call for mass deportations. It also promises a war on “wokeness” and a return to “German national culture” that does not apologize for its past. To date, the policy of the established parties has been to erect a firewall—Brandmauer—in which they isolate the AfD and deny it most of the privileges accorded to other parliamentary parties. This approach has kept the AfD out of all but a handful of local government positions. The cost, however, is increasingly unwieldy coalitions with little common purpose among the remaining parties.
Sachsen-Anhalt: The first and most important of the state elections
The possibility of an AfD parliamentary majority in Sachsen-Anhalt makes the first of the three elections the most consequential. The AfD is leading the incumbent CDU by 17 percentage points, 40 percent to 23 percent, in the most recent poll conducted in late August. The question is whether the CDU and the smaller parties can deny the AfD a parliamentary majority of its own. With almost a third of voters still undecided, the outcome remains uncertain.
The AfD has said that it will only enter government as head of a single-party majority. The results thus may hinge on the number of parties that enter the state parliament; the larger the share of the “wasted votes” that go to parties that fail to enter parliament, the lower the percentage of the overall vote needed to win a parliamentary majority. In the August poll, the post-Communist Left Party was at 13 percent, the SPD at 9 percent, and the Greens at 6 percent, with 9 percent going to parties below the 5 percent threshold for parliamentary representation.
Even if the AfD falls short of a majority, putting together a CDU-led government will not be easy. The CDU has an official policy prohibiting cooperation with either the AfD or the Left Party, although its top candidate in the state election, Sven Schulze, has shown openness to talking to the Left Party. In Saxony and Thuringia, two other eastern German states, CDU-led governments have relied on tacit Left Party support to pass legislation, and those governments have worked relatively well.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: A key test for the SPD
The stakes are highest for the SPD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where the party has led the government since 1998. The incumbent minister president, Manuela Schwesig, is the state’s best-known and most popular politician. While recent polling has the AfD in first place with about 36 percent of the vote and the SPD in second with around 29 percent, Schwesig is preferred over her AfD challenger 49 to 29 percent, according to a July poll. She has been outspoken in her criticism of the federal coalition for failing to make clear that it is taking the public’s economic and social concerns seriously. Like Schulze, she opposes raising the retirement age and also calls for price limits on gasoline. She currently heads a coalition with the Left Party, which is polling at around 10 percent, but the two parties are unlikely to win another parliamentary majority.
Once again, the fate of smaller parties will shape coalition building. The Greens and the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance are each hovering around 5 percent, while the CDU is at about 10 percent, which would be a historic low. Schwesig has narrowed the gap with the AfD since the beginning of the year. If she cannot close it, the federal leadership rather than the minister president is likely to be blamed.
Berlin: It’s complicated
In contrast to the other two races, the Berlin campaign has been focused on issues more than personalities. Voters are concerned about rising housing costs, an increase in violent crime, and perennial complaints that the city is dirty and trash-filled. The CDU, AfD, Left, and Greens parties are bunched within 5 percentage points of each other in the 15–20 percent range, with the SPD trailing in the 12–15 percent range. The incumbent CDU mayor, whose party governs in coalition with the SPD and the Free Democratic Party, is not seeking reelection due to his mishandling of a blackout in December and subsequent revelations that he misled the public about his slow response. A Left Party–led coalition (with the Greens and SPD) is probably the most likely result, but a weak SPD showing could leave these three parties without a majority and allow the CDU to remain in power.
Implications for Merz and his coalition
State elections have long complicated the legislative agendas of German governments. Social media and the increasing weakness of the once-dominant center-right and center-left parties have heightened the political impact of state elections. That said, the German constitution is aimed at ensuring political stability. Both federal governing parties will probably put off a major shakeup in leadership until after an even bigger round of western state elections in 2027.
Most concretely, the state elections are likely to have an impact on the federal government’s reform agenda. Merz recently insisted that he wants to push forward with retirement reform, but opposition is mounting, with the eastern state minister-presidents in the lead. The coalition also plans to move forward with health insurance and tax reform this fall, and it must agree on a new budget. Merz and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil lack the political clout to keep their troops together. Moreover, divisions within the Christian Democrats encourage the SPD to dig in its heels against more significant reform. Foreign and security policies are unlikely to be affected much, although eastern leaders in the CDU reportedly lobbied Merz against providing Taurus missiles to Ukraine and are more critical of German financial and military assistance to the country.
The state elections will also spur heightened debate about the firewall policy. There is a growing view that the policy has failed, and some Christian Democrats are already calling for adjustments to undercut AfD claims of discrimination. Eastern Christian Democrats feel trapped in coalitions with the left, and the lack of clear alternation of power adds to a sense of political dysfunction.
Finally, it is worth considering what an AfD-only government could do, since it remains a possible outcome in Sachsen-Anhalt or after some future state election. German-style federalism puts most policymaking at the federal level, with the states participating in that process through their presence in the Federal Council—the second legislative chamber. A single AfD government would have little influence in the Bundesrat, and recent procedural changes further limit the ability of a single state to slow down the chamber’s work. States take the lead on policy administration but also have policymaking prerogatives in some areas, particularly in policing, education, and culture.