History does not move in straight lines and is ever revealing new and surprising turns. Recent events related to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine remind us of this truism.

First, Russian President Vladimir Putin has suffered numerous setbacks since Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, with tacit support from Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, put to a vote the long-delayed aid package for Ukraine, which swiftly passed the US Senate and was signed into law by President Joe Biden. The quick arrival of US weapons, bolstered by the decision of many NATO allies, including the US, to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike many legitimate military targets in Russia, has brought to a halt Russian offensives near Kharkiv and in Donbas. And at last week’s NATO summit, the allies promised large shipments of additional weapons to Ukraine over the next year.  

But Putin found solace in recent days in the failure of the Biden administration to lift its restrictions on the use of longer-range US fires against targets in Russia, despite the Russian strike on a Ukrainian children’s hospital one day before the NATO summit began. Trump’s choice of JD Vance as his running mate, perhaps the most vociferous Senate Republican against aid to Ukraine, was also a boon for the Kremlin. In short, Putin’s war machine is counting on American timidity and naïveté to rescue his floundering war effort.

Please join the Eurasia Center for a look at the situation on the battlefield and the broader political chessboard.

This event will not feature an in-person audience. Please register using the embedded form for details on joining the virtual audience.