On Thursday, December 19 at 12:30 p.m. ET, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East Programs will host a discussion exploring the situation in Syria and the outcome for Russia and its interests.

The quick collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and takeover by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham rebel group stunned the international community, including the Assad regime’s partners. The Kremlin achieved a major victory in late 2015 when its escalation, in coordination with Iran, stabilized a fast-sinking Assad regime and Moscow was seen as a decisive international player in the region.

Today, Russia’s port facility in Tartus and air facility on the coast at Latakia have served as Russia’s only viable continuous military presence in the eastern Mediterranean. They have enabled the Russian Federation to engage in the region and have crucially also been a stepping-off point for some of the Russian military’s operations in Africa.

The fall of the Assad regime has now reversed that impression, delivering a major blow to Russian prestige and credibility as a steadfast protector of its clients. This has also put at risk the Russian long-held port facility and air base in Syria. If Moscow loses access to these facilities, it will be far more difficult to project naval power in the Mediterranean and to conduct its various military operations in Africa. In addition, Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and the related fall of the Asad regime have greatly weakened Iran, Russia’s principle partner in the Middle East. This too makes it harder for Iran to support Putin in Ukraine.