Event recap

On February 24, the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center and the Policy Center for the New South hosted a discussion on the future of US-Africa economic relations. With the backdrop of global economic shifts, investment trends, and an evolving US foreign policy approach under Trump 2.0, the event explored how trade, capital flows, and industrial partnerships can shape Africa’s economic trajectory.

The discussion was moderated by Otaviano Canuto, senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South and former vice president at the World Bank. The panel included several experts:

• Aubrey Hruby, senior advisor and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council
• Bryan Lanza, partner at Mercury Public Affairs and former advisor to US President Donald Trump’s first campaign
• Aymeric Saha, chief executive officer of MiDA Advisors
• Daniel Twining, president of the International Republican Institute

The discussion opened with remarks from Karim El Aynaoui, executive president of the Policy Center for the New South, who set the stage by highlighting Africa’s resilience despite macroeconomic challenges. “Half of the world’s twenty fastest-growing economies are in Africa,” he noted, emphasizing that the region remains a major economic force despite global headwinds.

Former Senegalese President Macky Sall, a member of the Atlantic Council’s International Advisory Board, framed Africa as a crucial partner in the global economy, the energy transition, and mineral supply chains. He called for a “strategic, mutually beneficial partnership” between the United States and Africa, underscoring the continent’s importance in critical minerals and industrial development.

Panelists broadly agreed that the current US administration views economic engagement with Africa through a transactional lens, with US officials focusing on trade, investment, and leveraging US financial markets to compete with China’s influence in Africa. Lanza framed this perspective succinctly: “Trump sees China across the chessboard from him. And Africa is a significant piece of whatever success the United States wants to have in this economic and geopolitical contest.” Saha highlighted how China has outpaced the United States in infrastructure investment, citing that between 2013 and 2022, China invested $680 billion in the Global South, compared to just $76 billion from the United States. He pointed out that “China put $250 billion into energy, $200 billion into transport, and another $200 billion into mining and industry,” while the United States lacked a comparable approach.

Saha argued that the United States must use its financial markets more strategically: “We don’t have the same tools that the Chinese have, so we need to be smart. The US should leverage capital markets, pension funds, and financial instruments like guarantees and insurance to help investors deploy capital into Africa.”

The discussion highlighted critical minerals as a key issue in which the United States’ and Africa’s interests align. Hruby said that critical minerals diplomacy has emerged as a top priority for the Trump administration: “This is an area where Africa’s riches and endowments meet global demand. We need to deepen investment along that vector.”

She pointed out that Africa’s vast mineral wealth, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements, is essential for the US energy transition and minerals supply chain security. To compete effectively with China, Hruby called for bold action, such as the creation of a US sovereign wealth fund that could finance African mining and infrastructure projects.

While transactional investment is gaining traction, governance remains a crucial factor in investment decisions. Twining argued that rule of law, transparency, and democratic governance are competitive advantages for the United States, stating, “American investors make money in places like Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa because they have strong courts and regulatory frameworks. We don’t beat China by playing by China’s rules—we should leverage our strengths.”

However, Hruby countered that governance may not be the Trump administration’s priority in Africa, saying, “I don’t see the US being very credible at the moment in preaching a democracy or governance story in African markets. This administration is learning from the Chinese playbook and focusing on deal making.”

Panelists agreed that US investment tools, such as the US International Development Finance Corporation and Export-Import Bank, need reform. Hruby argued that while these institutions were strengthened during the first Trump administration, they lacked a clear strategy: “We improved our tools, but we didn’t know what to build with them. This administration will be more focused on what to do with these tools once we have them.”

Saha raised concerns about bureaucratic delays and inefficiencies, arguing that major US-backed deals take too long to materialize: “We’re going from an average of two years to finalize a deal to maybe five years. If we don’t fix this, we’ll keep losing out to China.”

The panel ended with a call for greater congressional engagement to ensure long-term US investment in Africa. Twining said there is a need to “raise awareness among US policymakers that Africa is a major economic opportunity.”

Note: Some Atlantic Council work funded by the US government has been paused as a result of the Trump administration’s Stop Work Orders issued under the Executive Order “Reevaluating and Realigning US Foreign Aid.”

For continued insights into Africa’s evolving geopolitical landscape, follow the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center for upcoming events and publications.

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Event description

Welcoming remarks

Karim El Aynaoui
Executive President
Policy Center for the New South

Keynote speakers

Macky Sall
Former President
Republic of Senegal

featuring

Aubrey Hruby
Senior Advisor and Senior Fellow
Africa Center, Atlantic Council

Bryan Lanza
Partner
Mercury Public Affairs

Aymeric Saha
CEO
MiDA Advisors

Daniel Twining
President
International Republican Institute

Moderated by

Otaviano Canuto
Senior Fellow
Policy Center for the New South

In collaboration with

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