Commentary from
Marwan Muasher
Vice President for Studies
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Moderated by
Danya Greenfield
Acting Director, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East
Atlantic Council

Please join the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East for a discussion on the threats and opportunities facing Jordan’s economy and prospects for reform.

Although it appears that Jordan has weathered the Arab uprisings to date, all is not well in the Hashemite Kingdom. Over the past twenty years, its political economy has changed profoundly, putting pressure on the foundations of regime stability. The state has been retreating from many citizens’ economic lives, shrinking its circle of privilege and patronage, and leaving the population to fend for itself in a dysfunctional economy. Today, Jordan is also coping with hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, many of whom may remain in the country for years to come. Their presence exacerbates pre-existing tensions, yet the real danger to the monarchy’s stability is not the immediate cost of refugee care but the alienation of its traditional power base.

In a new Atlantic Council issue brief, Stability through Change: Toward a New Political Economy in Jordan, the Hariri Center’s Faysal Itani argues that Jordan can only achieve long-term stability and prosperity by building a new, wider base of support for the regime that includes its traditional social base. This requires disciplining elites hostile to political and economic reform, securing popular support for reform, establishing a state of laws, and restoring public faith in state institutions and the political process.