Please join us for the second meeting of the new independent task force sponsored by the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security on the future of US Extended Deterrence in East Asia. The second meeting of this task force will take place on Thursday, October 24, from 2:00-4:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council’s new offices at 1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor, West. Project co-chair and Atlantic Council board director Richard Armitage will preside over this meeting. The project director is Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Robert A. Manning.
The goal of this meeting will be to discuss current and prospective regional challenges:
— The US-China relationship and the prospect of creating a framework for strategic stability
— The evolving North Korean threat: impact on deterrence of a modest North Korean nuclear arsenal (8-20 deliverable weapons) and development of a mobile ICBM on both the US-ROK and US-Japan alliances – and how to avoid conflating the response to North Korea with that of China (e.g. will BMD and/or new conventional weapons threaten a Chinese 2nd strike capability).
Recall that the broader objective of this project is to examine the challenges and opportunities to strengthen US extended deterrence in East Asia over the coming decade by examining the evolving threat environment and new complexities in the international system. The task force will offer policy recommendations to the United States and key regional governments based on an assessment of evolving regional and global trends. The project also will address the expanding deterrence toolkit– nuclear elements of deterrence, as well conventional forces, conventional long-range strike, missile defenses, the domains of space and cyber space, and how emerging technologies and non-military means of deterrence may impact the security environment. The project will feature significant engagement of thought and opinion leaders in the region to assess their perceptions of US security guarantees.
For discussion purposes, please read “US, China and an unthinkable war” by David Gompert and Terrence Kelly.