In 2030, will the Internet and related information and communications technologies (ICTs) continue to drive global innovation and prosperity? Or will that bright promise be swamped by an unstable and insecure Internet, so overwhelmed by non-stop attacks that it has become an increasing drag on economic growth? The answers, as far as we can predict, are not promising and mean the difference in tens of trillions of dollars in global economic growth over the next fifteen years.
In the report, Risk Nexus: Overcome by cyber risks? Economic benefits and costs of alternate cyber futures, the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, in collaboration with Zurich Insurance Group and University of Denver’s Pardee Center on International Futures, uses economic modeling tools to understand, for the first time, how the costs and benefits from ICT might affect global gross domestic product (GDP) over time. The report also examined potential alternate cyber futures, driven either by governments vs. non-state actors, or strong cyber defenses and booming technologies vs. mounting risks and attacks.
The difference between the report’s best and worst forecasts through 2030 is a startling USD 120 trillion, or about 6 percent of cumulative global GDP. In order to steer the global community towards the best cyber futures with the trillions of dollars of global economic benefits, the report provides a roadmap of recommendations for policymakers, companies, non-state groups, and the general public alike.