On December 14, Ashford was featured in a Foreign Affairs “Ask the Experts” roundup on the future of nuclear proliferation.
“Two factors seem likely to push proliferation in the near term. First, the balance of power is shifting toward a more multipolar world, in which it is likely that smaller states may feel more threatened by their neighbors and in which the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella will be questionable, particularly for states without a formal alliance commitment. Second, and ironically, some of the actions that the United States itself has taken in recent years—its withdrawal from the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action], the invasion of Iraq and Libya, etc.—are likely to encourage states to develop an independent nuclear capability. If arms control treaties or agreements with the United States are not credible, and if dictators fear Western interventions, nuclear development is an unfortunate yet likely outcome.”
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