Center for European Policy Analysis quotes Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center Director John E. Herbst on the military imperative to support Ukraine if Russia renews its military campaign:

Still, opponents of security assistance to Ukraine should take heart – the very fact that their escalation-dominance argument is worthless means that Russia is less likely to launch a renewed military offensive. If there is no further Russian attack, the issue of enhancing Ukrainian defenses becomes moot. However, I would challenge my realist colleagues to take what John Herbst and Hans Binnendijk have called “the Mariupol test.” If Russia renews its military campaign in Ukraine, debate about providing defensive capabilities to the Ukrainians should end. Analysts of the realist school should don the sackcloth and ashes of repentance, abandon glib but hollow argumentation about escalation dominance, stop purveying the phony Russian victimization narrative, and pitch in to ensure that Ukrainians get the capabilities they need to defend themselves. At that point there would be no excuse for allowing wishful thinking to remain the coin of their realm.

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