Rafik Hariri Center Senior Fellow Frederic Hof writes for the Huffington Post on next steps for the Syria peace process following UN Security Council Resolution 2254:
With the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, adorned with expressions of Western regret and dismay over mass slaughter in Syria, the Obama administration continues to limp toward the January 2017 finish line hoping for the best. As Secretary of State John Kerry’s fingers remain super-glued to the lapels of his Russian counterpart’s well-tailored suit, that which passes for strategy is the sincere wish that Russia and Iran will abandon their interests and persuade their client (Bashar al-Assad) to step aside for the sake of a united Syrian front against an enemy whose survival in Syria Moscow and Tehran find useful: the Islamic State (ISIL, ISIS, Daesh). Hope is neither a plan nor a strategy. Indeed, if Russia and Iran decline to stop the mass murder right now, hope without action becomes an accessory.
The calm self-assuredness of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is hardly an act. Indeed, were it not for John Kerry’s dogged insistence on a diplomatic process that has thus far produced random, plucked-from-the-sky target dates for negotiations, ceasefires, agreements, constitutions, and elections, Moscow would not likely be paying any attention at all to Washington on Syria. Why, after all, would it go out of its way to spend time with a player of so little consequence?
With the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, adorned with expressions of Western regret and dismay over mass slaughter in Syria, the Obama administration continues to limp toward the January 2017 finish line hoping for the best. As Secretary of State John Kerry’s fingers remain super-glued to the lapels of his Russian counterpart’s well-tailored suit, that which passes for strategy is the sincere wish that Russia and Iran will abandon their interests and persuade their client (Bashar al-Assad) to step aside for the sake of a united Syrian front against an enemy whose survival in Syria Moscow and Tehran find useful: the Islamic State (ISIL, ISIS, Daesh). Hope is neither a plan nor a strategy. Indeed, if Russia and Iran decline to stop the mass murder right now, hope without action becomes an accessory.
The calm self-assuredness of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is hardly an act. Indeed, were it not for John Kerry’s dogged insistence on a diplomatic process that has thus far produced random, plucked-from-the-sky target dates for negotiations, ceasefires, agreements, constitutions, and elections, Moscow would not likely be paying any attention at all to Washington on Syria. Why, after all, would it go out of its way to spend time with a player of so little consequence?