WASHINGTON — An ambitious Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) currently under negotiation could provide hundreds of thousands of American jobs, benefiting every US state, according to TTIP and the Fifty States: Jobs and Growth from Coast to Coast, a study commissioned by the Atlantic Council, the British Embassy in Washington, the Bertelsmann Foundation. Such a pact would also increase exports to the European Union (EU) for each state and industrial sector.

TTIP negotiations between the United States and the EU began in July. A second round of talks is slated for October.

The study, released here today at an event with UK Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and US Senators Christopher Murphy (D-CT) and Ron Johnson (R-WI), concludes that an ambitious agreement—one that eliminates transatlantic tariffs, reduces costs of non-tariff regulatory barriers by 25 percent and cuts public-procurement barriers by 50 percent—could lead, when fully implemented, to more than 740,000 TTIP-related US jobs, the equivalent of the entire work force of New Hampshire. The four states to gain the most jobs are also the most populous: California (75,340), Texas (67,780), New York (50,520), and Florida (47,540). Among other large states, Pennsylvania (33,960), Ohio (26,960), Georgia (24,660), and North Carolina (22,860) each outperform the mean in terms of estimated TTIP job growth given the size of their populations.

Other top findings of the study include:

• One job for every 160 US jobs in existence would be attributed to TTIP under an ambitious scenario.
• Motor vehicles and chemicals would be top sectors for export growth in nineteen states. Alabama, South Carolina, Michigan, New Jersey and North Carolina would experience especially significant export boosts in these sectors.
• Annual exports to Europe would jump 33 percent per state, on average.

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The unweighted average of TTIP employment as a proportion of overall US employment in a post-TTIP scenario is 0.63 percent. This means that approximately one of every 160 US jobs would be directly tied to the implementation of an ambitious TTIP, although this figure varies by state. In Nevada (0.71 percent), Hawaii (0.68 percent) and Florida, Maine, Montana, Washington, and West Virginia (0.67 percent), more than one in every 150 workers would have a TTIP-dependent job. Indiana (0.59 percent), Alabama (0.56 percent), and Michigan (0.55 percent) would see slightly more than one per 180 jobs attributable to TTIP.

An ambitious TTIP would provide especially significant increases in trade for advanced American manufacturing. The study predicts that motor vehicles would be the top sector for export growth in 19 states, many in the South (Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama) and the Midwest (Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois). Chemicals exports would lead in sectoral export increases for thirteen states. Metals and metal products would be the top sectoral gainer in seven states.   

The greatest gains in exports would occur in states that are particularly well integrated into the supply chains of the transatlantic automobile market. The volume of trade between the EU andMichigan, traditionally the primary hub for US motor exports, would increase by 95 percentunder an ambitious TTIP. Alabama and South Carolina, which have become important locations for European automakers, would see an estimated187 percent and 138 percent increase, respectively, in the value of EU trade. Although motor vehicles are a significant source of US exports to the EU, an ambitious TTIP will provide the sector with a dividend that makes these two states the principal beneficiaries of the lowering of non-tariff barriers to trade in the automotive sector. 

States for which the chemicals sector is important are also expected to see large increases in exports when a TTIP agreement is fully implemented. Pennsylvania is estimated to increase its chemical exports by $2.3 billion, a 34 percent jump. New Jersey’s and North Carolina’s pharmaceutical exports could rise by $1.7 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively.

Click here to download the full study.

A livestream of the study’s release with UK Deputy Prime Minister Clegg and US Senators Murphy and Johnson can be seen starting at 3:30 p.m. EDT on September 24, at www.livestream.com/AtlanticCouncil.