Given the renewed attention to pipeline politics in the years following Russia’s invasion of Crimea, taking a critical look at the relationship between energy considerations and political behavior is not only warranted, but crucial. Based on historical examination and analysis of Russia’s approach to energy development in its neighborhood, The Caspian Sea and Southern Gas Corridor: A view from Russia provides insight into Russian behavior—and valuable lessons for how to influence it.
While Russia’s initial energy development strategy in the Caspian has been predicated on maintaining dominance, the presence of alternative projects and infrastructure can create new “facts on the ground” that alter Russian behavior, influencing it in a more competitive direction. By analyzing the evolution of Russia’s energy development strategy in contexts across Central Asia, from Turkey to Georgia, this report illustrates the potential for market integration and interconnectivity to foster energy market competition and influence behavior.