CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unscheduled recent Moscow visit has sparked widespread speculation, with many linking it to Russia’s escalating campaign of aggression against Europe. While no details of Ratcliffe’s discussions with his Kremlin counterparts have been released, multiple reports have since suggested that he traveled to the Russian capital with a warning not to test NATO directly.
This would certainly tally with America’s own recent intelligence assessments. A report released in early August claimed that Russia could potentially test NATO’s resolve with some form of limited attack against an alliance member at any moment in the next few years. Meanwhile, Germany this week accused Russia of being behind the attempted bombing of Leipzig Airport, highlighting the high stakes shadow war that is already being waged by the Kremlin across Europe.
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Despite ample evidence of Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions throughout Europe, many observers remain deeply skeptical of claims that Putin would actually dare to attack NATO. Doubters point to the Russian military’s well-documented difficulties in Ukraine as proof that Moscow is in no position to confront the far larger and more powerful NATO alliance.
This argument is not wrong, but it fundamentally misreads Russia’s intentions. If Putin does decide to attack NATO, his goal will be to divide and discredit the alliance rather than actually defeating it. Crucially, Putin may also believe that today’s volatile geopolitical environment represents a unique window of opportunity for Russia to split the West and achieve victory over Ukraine.
Since 2022, Putin has become notorious for exaggerating the Russian army’s gains in Ukraine. At the same time, he is not a complete fantasist and understands perfectly well that Russia could not realistically hope to beat NATO in a conventional war. Instead, any Russian attack on the alliance would be conducted on a small scale, with the aim of deepening divisions within NATO and exposing the alliance’s lack of political resolve.
In this scenario, Russian troops would launch a cross-border incursion somewhere along NATO’s eastern flank, possibly under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians. Moscow would then challenge the alliance to react. If NATO members failed to agree on a military response and were instead paralyzed by the escalation fears that have shaped their approach to Ukraine, the credibility the alliance’s collective security commitment would be left in tatters. Putin could then capitalize on this moment of unprecedented insecurity to pressure individual European countries into abandoning Ukraine.
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To many Western observers, the entire notion of a Russian attack on NATO remains ludicrously far-fetched. But when viewed from Putin’s perspective, it begins to look chillingly plausible. The Russian dictator has bet everything on the invasion of Ukraine, but his army has been unable to deliver a decisive breakthrough on the battlefield against an enemy that is supported from safety of Europe. In order to achieve victory, therefore, he must cut this lifeline of European backing. Dividing and discrediting NATO would potentially represent a huge step in that direction.
Based on personal experience, Putin would certainly have little reason to expect a robust NATO response to any Russian attack. Instead, he would be counting on Western leaders to offer the same loud protestations and underwhelming opposition that followed Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 seizure of Crimea, and the full-scale invasion of 2022.
Putin may also be encouraged by evidence of Western disunity. The United States is currently preoccupied with Iran, while disagreements over the handling of the conflict in the Middle East have deepened existing tensions between the Trump Administration and America’s European allies. In this environment, it is all too easy to imagine a lack of unity during a moment of crisis.
Nor is Europe ready to defend itself. European leaders are currently rushing to reverse decades of defense sector neglect and have recently embarked on a major rearmament drive. This process will eventually transform the continent’s security architecture but could take years to complete, creating a window of vulnerability that Putin may be tempted to exploit.
None of this means a Russian attack on NATO is either imminent or inevitable. In the present circumstances, Putin is far more likely to continue his campaign of gray zone aggression against Europe while attempting to bomb Ukraine into submission. Nevertheless, the risk of a dangerous escalation between Russia and NATO is now very real and should not be underestimated. The best way to counter this threat is by convincing Putin that if he gambles on Western weakness, he risks losing everything. However, that will require a degree of deterrence that is currently lacking.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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