WASHINGTON—Marine Le Pen’s first major campaign rally on October 25 felt more like a victory lap than a launch event. Eight days after the most significant protests France has seen in years, the latest polling has the presidential candidate of the far-right National Rally (RN) party well in the lead at over 32 percent, and she barely had to campaign for it: the national conversation has shifted to restoring order, exactly the narrative that best fits her messaging and that of the broader French right.
What started in September as localized protests over dilapidated school buildings and teacher shortages has grown into sweeping unrest merging complaints from trade unions and the Yellow Vests about the cost of living, the quality of public services, proposed public-sector pay freezes, and general discontent with a fragmented centrist government that seems unable to govern.
During the large-scale protests of 2018 by the Yellow Vests, a movement against high fuel taxes and rising living costs, President Emmanuel Macron could draw on a parliamentary majority and offer emergency measures boosting incomes and easing taxes to defuse the unrest. This time around, however, he has limited room to maneuver. Despite his intention to affirm the power of a centrist government, he heads into his last six months in office weaker than ever: since the arguably ill-judged 2024 snap elections, the fragmented center has no political majority in the National Assembly. Passing legislation, including the proposed 2027 austerity budget, is therefore a herculean feat that may ultimately require bypassing a parliamentary vote, extending the previous year’s budget through emergency legislation, or resorting to a legally contentious ordinance if agreement can’t be reached through negotiations.
And the budget itself is a significant pain point: France is still grappling with a spiraling debt and deficit crisis, necessitating an austerity budget with an eye-watering €54 billion in proposed savings targeting most ministries, with defense being a notable exception. This means that Macron lacks enough spare cash to meet protesters’ demands, as he did in 2018. Likewise, his government lacks the political majority to credibly address complaints, and the limited government concessions of the past week appear to be too little, too late.
That leaves security as one of the few remaining levers he can pull without parliamentary support, but it cuts both ways: deploying soldiers to protect public buildings and increasing police presence only reinforces the left’s narrative of the state cracking down on its citizens, while every instance of visible disorder feeds the right’s narrative of a centrist government that has lost control. But the picture is more nuanced: While images of riots dominated the headlines, most of the demonstrations on October 17 were largely peaceful, even according to French authorities. Much of the violence was attributed to smaller groups operating outside of the main marches, including both black-clad militants of the far-left and far-right activists that stoked clashes in several cities.
With Macron’s popularity at an all-time low of 15 percent, he has effectively tainted the centrist candidates hoping to succeed him. They are already splitting the centrist vote between former prime ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal, and there is growing pressure for a single centrist candidate. Without a formidable centrist candidate, the question becomes who can best capitalize on the current political and fiscal environment in France. The answer currently is the far right.
For its part, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left party France Unbowed (LFI) has emphasized its solidarity with protesters and their shared grievances, particularly over heavy-handed policing and allegations of excessive force. However, this narrative is undercut by accusations that it is exploiting the movement.
Meanwhile, the National Rally doesn’t need to make much of an argument at all: every image of a burning building makes its case for order. The longer that France is perceived to be spiraling and that the centrist government is seen as weak, the more Le Pen stands to gain.
And a narrative focused on unrest shifts attention away from the trickier budget debate. Although both the National Rally and France Unbowed have released proposed budgets, they rely heavily on contested assumptions, and there are widespread doubts among economists about whether the proposed budgets are realistic or effective.
Six months out from the presidential election, several factors could still reshape the race. The first is whether the planned November 5 nationwide strike and mobilizations are peaceful or bring a new wave of violence. The second is what will be included in the final budget, whether it will pass, and more broadly whether the fiscal debate returns to the campaign. The third is Le Pen herself: France’s Court of Cassation has yet to rule on her embezzlement conviction, a decision that could prevent her from running.