Tripling global nuclear energy capacity is in reach—if the world seizes the moment

In December 2023 at COP28 in Dubai, 22 countries and more than 120 companies pledged to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 to support the goal of reaching net-zero emissions. The declaration reflects a growing consensus around nuclear energy’s role in climate action and spurred a momentous year for the industry. Following further commitments announced at COP29, it will be crucial for industry to mobilize engagement as it looks ahead to this year’s COP30 in Brazil.

In the first global stocktake of progress towards the 2015 Paris Agreement, the 198 signatory countries called for accelerating deployment of low-emission technologies—including nuclear energy—to meet climate goals. The stocktake marked the first formal recognition of nuclear energy as a solution to reduce emissions in a COP agreement, reflecting a recent paradigm shift in how nuclear power is viewed among climate negotiators.

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Acknowledging the emissions-reducing role of nuclear energy enables government and private sector leaders to leverage it as a decarbonization tool; it also helps unlock investment for countries embarking on nuclear energy projects.

During New York Climate Week in September 2024, fourteen global banks and financial institutions pledged to support the COP28 goal of tripling nuclear energy capacity. This public backing from the financial sector was the first of its kind and is a critical step in driving investor confidence in this revitalized market.

The pledge marks a timely shift in attitudes toward financing nuclear energy projects. The average annual global investment in nuclear power in the 2010s was just $30 billion. From 2017-23, this rose to $50 billion. Tripling nuclear energy capacity would require upwards of $150 billion in annual global investment by 2050.

Private investment—in addition to government-backed initiatives—is critical to accelerate nuclear energy deployment at scale. Leaders in the nuclear energy industry must continue to engage with banks and financial institutions to mobilize capital to support anticipated levels of growth.  

Customers ready to purchase nuclear electricity are required for new projects to be bankable. As the only zero-emission baseload power source with the potential to be scalable in many regions, nuclear energy is an attractive option for industries which require reliable, 24/7 power—like data centers.

Global power demand from data centers is expected to grow 160 percent by 2030, with US demand rising from 25 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to more than 80 GW by 2030 to accommodate increased computing capacities. Customers are already experiencing higher electric bills as a result of data centers’ sudden and unprecedented strain on the grid.

Driven by their extraordinary demand for reliable power, US tech companies comprise some of the earliest end-users driving the large-scale deployment of commercial nuclear energy. Last year, some of the world’s largest tech firms announced big commitments to invest in nuclear energy projects, including agreements between Google and Kairos Power, Amazon and X-energy, and Microsoft and Constellation Energy.

Partnerships between Big Tech and reactor companies marked some of the most promising developments towards establishing demand at scale, or an “orderbook,” for the US industry last year. The partnerships illustrate the potential for financial mechanisms, such as power purchase agreements, to de-risk investments in novel projects. Using these developments as a blueprint, nuclear energy providers should work closely with other energy-intensive sectors, such as heavy manufacturing, as demand for clean electricity surges worldwide.

In November, COP29 in Azerbaijan delivered additional support for the industry. The Biden administration set a first-of-its-kind target to deploy 200 GW of new nuclear by 2050, which would more than triple current US capacity. The United States launched three project partnerships with Ukraine under the Foundational Infrastructure for the Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technology (FIRST) program to dedicate $30 million to explore the potential of nuclear energy to help the country meet its energy security goals. The United States also signed a civil nuclear collaboration agreement with the United Kingdom to pool research and development funding and exclude Russia from future collaborations.

With Brazil holding the COP30 presidency, the country’s nuclear power ambitions may help to secure nuclear energy’s place at the center of the COP agenda. Latin America’s leader in installed nuclear capacity and home to the world’s eighth-largest uranium reserves, Brazil has expressed intentions to add 10 GW over the next thirty years and revive domestic uranium production.

Deploying new nuclear energy projects at scale will require global leaders to translate pledges into action. Multilateral engagement, backing from the financial sector, and buy-in from new customers could deliver major wins for nuclear energy. The industry must now mobilize around these converging trends to secure a robust nuclear energy ecosystem for the decades ahead.

Amy Drake is an assistant director at the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

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Image: Tripling Nuclear Energy by 2050 Event at COP28 on December 2, 2023. (Photo by Ean Calma/International Atomic Energy Agency). https://www.flickr.com/photos/iaea_imagebank/53370506650/in/photostream/