A plan for postwar Gaza: Instead of removing Palestinian civilians, remove Hamas
The appalling condition of the three Israeli hostages released last Saturday, reminding all the world of Holocaust survivors and laying bare the torture Hamas inflicted on them and continues to inflict on others, has renewed calls in Israel for Hamas’s complete removal from power in Gaza. These calls compete with the urgency to free all remaining hostages, a need either advanced or complicated by US President Donald Trump’s recent interventions.
But the bottom-line requirement is correct: Israel cannot live alongside a territory controlled by an organization capable of the October 7, 2023, terrorist attacks and the abuse of hostages for five hundred days since. And Palestinians forced to live under Hamas’s brutal rule would be fated to live through additional rounds of war, compounding their suffering to date.
Throughout the Biden administration, in which I served, and so far during Trump’s brief time in office, all efforts at post-conflict planning have foundered on the failure to dislodge Hamas from power. Compounding this failure is that the only plan on the table at the moment is Trump’s fantastical proposal for Gaza to be emptied of all Palestinians, turned over to US ownership, and transformed into the Riviera of the Middle East.
Arab states are desperate to steer away from this unserious idea, which they find destabilizing and likely to be the death knell of their goal of seeing a Palestinian state established. Following his meeting at the White House on Tuesday, Jordan’s King Abdullah II posted on X that he “reiterated Jordan’s steadfast position against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. This is the unified Arab position.” Meanwhile, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has postponed his own visit to Washington.
In with a different plan . . .
But Arab states need to present an alternative, as King Abdullah told Trump they would in the coming weeks. It should fulfill the requirement of removing Hamas from power. Otherwise, we will see not Trump’s fantasy, but additional rounds of fighting and more destruction and death.
To give Trump something to work with, Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Kuwait, should indicate their willingness to invest significant resources in Gaza reconstruction. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, the UAE, Bahrain, and Indonesia should sign up for participation in a US-backed multinational stabilization force that would secure delivery of humanitarian aid and provide basic law and order. And Israel will need to relax its prohibition on allowing elements of the Palestinian Authority to participate in the governance of Gaza, as they move to implement needed reforms.
But these parties, and Palestinians in Gaza, can also help achieve what the Israeli military has not been able to do: removing Hamas from power.
The model for this removal is known. In 1982, in one of the great successes of US diplomacy in the Middle East, Special Envoy Philip Habib arranged the evacuation of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat and his cohorts, along with fourteen thousand PLO fighters, from a besieged Beirut. Their departure, by ships, planes, and buses, to Tunisia, Iraq, Syria, Algeria, Yemen, and elsewhere in the Arab world, spared Beirut from an Israeli invasion in response to PLO terrorist attacks against Israel.
Identifying Hamas leaders and fighters will require a fused intelligence effort drawing from Israeli, Arab, and US sources. And Gulf Arab states will also need to step up to finance this removal of perhaps twenty thousand Hamas militants, and to find locations to house and supervise them and their families. Potential destinations include Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Malaysia, Algeria, and Russia—all countries that maintain some connection or identification with Hamas. The United States would need to waive sanctions on facilitating this transit and housing of members of a terrorist organization. But getting them out of Gaza would be worth it.
. . . and out with Hamas
What could possibly induce members of Hamas, a jihadist organization committed to regaining what it sees as Palestine “from the river to the sea,” to accept exile instead of martyrdom in defense of their homeland? It won’t be easy, and the United States must pressure and empower a Qatari, and perhaps Turkish, negotiating channel to make this pitch to Hamas leaders. But three factors can help.
The first is the certainty that Israel will resume a ferocious military assault. Anyone familiar with the trauma Israelis are reliving as they see starving hostages emerge from tunnels, and may soon see corpses being returned, knows this is coming, whether after a hostage deal is completed or interrupting the current one. There will be no restraint imposed by Trump, no reason for Hamas to hope that daylight between the US and Israeli governments will rein in the campaign. This reality could focus the minds of these Hamas fighters, many recently recruited, on the fact that their days are numbered, their cause is doomed, and they might be better off living to fight another day from afar.
Second, a unified chorus of Arab governments denouncing Hamas as the cause of the Palestinian people’s suffering, and calling on Hamas to leave, will matter. Hamas is not completely immune to concerns for its reputation, and it prizes its heroic status in some quarters of Arab society. A determined messaging effort—both criticizing Hamas and coaxing its members to leave—led by Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE, and buttressed by the critical voice of the Hamas-sympathizing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, might sway the minds of some Hamas leaders.
Finally, Palestinians in Gaza must raise their voices to declare that they want to expel Hamas. This sentiment exists far more widely than is heard, as many Palestinians understand fully that it is Hamas that has brought disaster on their heads. There is understandable fear of Hamas brutality, which is frequently turned against Palestinians deemed disloyal. But as with any tyranny, the moment the masses have the courage to turn against it is the moment its brittleness is exposed.
Organizing this undertaking—the messaging campaign against Hamas, the financing, the transit and destination arrangements, and the support for Palestinian anti-Hamas voices—will be a huge task. But Philip Habib proved it is doable. It is the best prospect to hasten the end of this war and begin the tall order of rebuilding Gaza for Palestinians who want to live peacefully alongside Israel.
Trump has a unique moment to use his persuasive power with Middle Eastern leaders. He and his diplomats would be wiser to devote their energies to this project, with all its challenges, than selling stories of a US takeover and visions of gleaming hotels when there are no takers among critical Arab partners.
Daniel B. Shapiro served as US ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017, and most recently as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy. He also previously served as the director of the Atlantic Council’s N7 Initiative.
Further reading
Wed, Feb 5, 2025
Trump is serious about shaking up the Middle East, even if his Gaza plan isn’t
New Atlanticist By Jonathan Panikoff
It’s almost impossible to imagine Trump’s plan for Gaza coming to fruition. But it would be a mistake to think that he was anything but serious with the proposal he laid out Tuesday night.
Fri, Jan 31, 2025
What the Gaza war reveals about the limitations of missile defense
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The Gaza War serves as a cautionary tale about what missile defense can achieve, what it should achieve, and where it falls short.
Fri, Feb 7, 2025
The aftermath of the Gaza war will determine the trajectory of US-Egypt relations
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The direction of US-Egypt relations will be determined by how US policymakers address the aftermath of the Israel-Hamas war—and how Sisi responds to Trump's idea to "take over" Gaza.
Image: Israeli hostage Keith Siegel being delivered to representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross ICRC by fighters of the Ezz al-Din Al-Qassam brigades, the military wing of Hamas, at Gaza port in Gaza City Israeli hostage Keith Siegel being delivered to representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross ICRC by fighters of the Ezz al-Din Al-Qassam brigades, the military wing of Hamas, at Gaza port in Gaza City, 01 February 2025. Three Israeli hostages, Keith Siegel, Ofer Calderon and Yarden Bibas were transferred from Hamas to the Red Cross, as part of the Israeli-Hamas hostage release and cease-fire deal. Photo by Omar Ashtawy apaimages Gaza city Gaza Strip Palestinian Territory 010225_Gaza_OSH_0018 Copyright: xapaimagesxOmarxAshtawyxxapaimagesx