Behind the scenes of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings as leaders adjust to a new normal of uncertainty
As financial leaders descend upon Washington, DC, this week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva issued them some bleak advice: “Don’t get too comfortable.”
Georgieva’s warning last week came as the global economy continued to prove resilient against global shocks ranging from the United States’ tariff-rate changes to an artificial-intelligence investment boom that many believe is a bubble at risk of bursting. And while the global economy has done better than many feared, risks still linger. As Georgieva put it: “Uncertainty is the new normal, and it is here to stay.” An example of that played out just days before the annual meetings, when US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, but backtracked shortly after.
We sent our experts to the IMF and World Bank headquarters to sort through all the uncertainty and glean a sense of what may lie ahead for the global economy—and what policymakers should do about it. Below are their insights, in addition to highlights from our own conversations with economic leaders about how they plan to navigate tumultuous times.
This week’s expert contributors
THE LATEST
Why you won’t hear enough about Gaza at IMF-World Bank week
Expect IMF-World Bank meeting debates over China, the US, Ukraine, and more—behind closed doors
As the trade war resumes, China may be keeping one eye on Trump and one on the Supreme Court
Jobs and AI to dominate the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings
The five important issues at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings
OCTOBER 13 | 5:30 PM ET
Why you won’t hear enough about Gaza at IMF-World Bank week
The IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings kicked off today, on the same day that US President Donald Trump visited Israel to mark the implementation of phase one of his Gaza peace plan.
On the surface, the two events seem completely disconnected, but anyone who has been part of international finance over the past two years knows the opposite is true.
On October 8, 2023, I landed alongside my Atlantic Council colleagues in Marrakesh for that year’s IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. Throughout the airport, our hotel, and the conference venue, television news played the horrific images of October 7 on loop, and the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors were asked for their thoughts on the unfolding war. They largely demurred, arguing that it was too early to tell if there would be any economic repercussions. I criticized that response at the time.
Fast forward to the 2024 spring meetings. Two days before the meetings began, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel. The markets reacted sharply, and the risk of a wider war trickled into every conversation. But the threat passed, markets rebounded, and the world’s finance ministers went back to business.
Now, here we are again. Financial leaders will discuss tariffs, debt, a US government shutdown, the growth of artificial intelligence, the future of the dollar, the bailout in Argentina, and more. But the one thing they likely won’t talk about is the cease-fire in Gaza.
Economists have been trained for decades to separate the worlds of macroeconomics and geopolitics, despite time and again being reminded that’s not how the world works. Just look back to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which triggered the most sweeping sanctions response in history.
Events over the past few years remind us why the Bretton Woods institutions were created in the midst of World War II: to deliver economic prosperity in the hopes of fostering peace. But in recent decades, the world’s financial leaders have focused solely on the prosperity part (with mixed results) and have sometimes forgotten the larger goal.
To continue to earn the trust of the member countries they serve, these institutions must remember their roots.
OCTOBER 13 | 11:15 AM ET
Expect IMF-World Bank meeting debates over China, the US, Ukraine, and more—behind closed doors
Once again, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings will unfold against a turbulent global backdrop. In their speeches and prepared statements, delegates will raise concerns about the global economic outlook, fret about rising fiscal deficits and hidden risks in private equity and crypto markets, and make the case for their own policy efforts in front of the global community. A joint communiqué is unlikely, in part because both the United States and China will not agree to language aimed at reining in their isolationist or mercantilist tendencies for the benefit of the rest of the world.
But this is not what observers should focus on most this week. Instead, it’s worth closely watching for a hint of what is happening behind closed doors. There, conversations will focus on the few areas for which the two institutions still enjoy the support of their major shareholders—not the least because the IMF’s and World Bank’s considerable financial resources look ever more appealing to finance ministers who are running out of fiscal space at home.
The United States and the IMF
To begin with, most delegations will be keenly interested in Washington’s relationship with the Bretton Woods twins. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled support for the institutions at the spring meetings this year, recently firmed up by the US intervention in the Argentine peso. But while policymakers may talk of partnership, the power asymmetry within the IMF remains evident.
There is a possible upside to greater US engagement—including improved cooperation on major lending cases and a push for the IMF to strengthen its surveillance arm, a core mandate much neglected in recent years. Similarly, the United States could collaborate with the two Bretton Woods institutions to ensure that countries meet their loan conditions, enabling timely repayment. The administration might even convince Congress to ratify the 2023 quota increase, shifting the fund’s finances to a more permanent capital base.
But there is also a risk. Already reeling from the dissolution of the US Agency for International Development, many delegates are bracing for US demands to cut climate and, perhaps, development programs at the IMF and World Bank, which could lead to substantial friction with emerging market and developing countries. Moreover, there are concerns that the United States could politicize both lenders’ loan operations, exposing all shareholders to the risks of misconstrued lending programs.
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OCTOBER 12 | 4:36 PM ET
As the trade war resumes, China may be keeping one eye on Trump and one on the Supreme Court
The big question in Washington this weekend, following the latest exchange in the US-China trade war: What went wrong?
On Thursday, China announced sweeping new export controls on rare earths, and the following day, US President Donald Trump threatened to reinstate 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods (on top of existing tariffs) and cancel his long-awaited meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
That flurry of action came after a quiet summer, during which the world’s two largest economies put their trade war on hold and Trump said increasingly nice things about Xi. Just three weeks ago, the two leaders had what Trump called a “very productive” phone call, agreeing to finally meet face-to-face in South Korea at the end of October.
Then, on September 29, the US Department of Commerce issued the so-called “affiliates rule,” which—as an interim final rule—went into effect immediately, without full notice and comment. It placed export controls on thousands of foreign companies that are 50 percent owned or controlled by listed entities. Even though the rule doesn’t mention China, Chinese companies are on the lists, so the measure directly affects them.
Beijing viewed the move as a violation of the spirit of Geneva, where US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his counterpart, He Lifeng, brokered a temporary truce in May. So on Thursday, China added five new elements to its rare-earth licensing regime. Remember, this is the same authority that caused supply shortages at Ford factories in Michigan in June—and arguably pushed Trump and Xi to the negotiating table in the first place.
Trump, of course, reached for his favorite tool in response: tariffs. And now, many are watching to see whether Asian markets dip on Monday into what could be their biggest drawdown in months. Trump, perhaps wary of the market reaction, posted on Truth Social on Sunday, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment.”
But there’s something I think analysts are missing in all of this: the Supreme Court.
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OCTOBER 10 | 9:28 AM ET
Jobs and AI to dominate the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings
The GeoEconomics Center’s Sophia Busch and Bart Piasecki outline what to expect at the 2025 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings.
OCTOBER 8 | 2:28 PM ET
The five important issues at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank are gearing up for their annual meetings next week. Amid increasingly high stakes, this year’s gathering has special significance, seeing as the United States, after having withdrawn from several other international organizations and agreements, still remains active in the two Bretton Woods institutions.
At these annual meetings, the IMF and the World Bank will face five important issues, which span both near-term economic prospects and more fundamental, longer-term challenges confronting the global economy.
1. Navigating growth—and inflation
Recent data show a rather resilient global economy, particularly in the United States. Despite concerns about rising tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, economic activity has held up since the second quarter of the year—so much so that 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimates have been recently revised upward, to 3.2 percent globally (according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and 2.5 percent for the United States (according to Goldman Sachs). Stock markets have also performed well, with the MSCI World Index posting a 14.3 percent return year-to-date, roughly matching the S&P 500’s 14.4 percent, though a price-to-earnings ratio of thirty (compared to a long-term average of nineteen) suggests the market valuation could be stretched. Global inflation has slowed noticeably, from 5.67 percent in 2024 to an estimated 4.29 percent this year. In the United States, the consumer price index growth rate fell from 3 percent in January to 2.3 percent in April, before rebounding to 2.9 percent in August.
But this resilience may not last. Evidence suggests that the good performance of the global economy and stock markets has been narrowly based, driven by a handful of high-tech corporations (the so-called Magnificent Seven) pouring money into artificial intelligence (AI) hardware, software, and data centers. In fact, according to JP Morgan Asset Management, AI-related capital expenditures have accounted for 1.1 percent of the 1.6 percent GDP growth in the first half of 2025. Such intensive investment could prove unsustainable, and a slowdown could ripple through the broader economy and stock markets. Meanwhile, US importers are likely beginning to pass more of the costs of tariffs onto retail customers, driving up consumer prices. If new tariffs keep coming, that would sustain the inflation process going forward.
It is up to the IMF to present a convincing analysis of the economy’s vulnerability to concentration risk (dependence on AI related activities) and the likely delayed effects of rising tariffs, which boost the likelihood of mild stagflation in the near future, especially in the United States; it is also up to the Fund to advise countries to adopt policies to mitigate this risk. This could be a challenge, especially when major economies can point to decent economic performance so far this year and may feel complacent.
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Further reading
Sun, Oct 12, 2025
As the trade war resumes, China may be keeping one eye on Trump and one on the Supreme Court
New Atlanticist By Josh Lipsky
The US president’s leverage with Xi Jinping could be undercut by the Supreme Court's deliberations.
Tue, Oct 7, 2025
How a weaker US dollar can help debt-burdened African countries
New Atlanticist By Bart Piasecki
Trump’s drive to weaken the US dollar is having global side effects. For some African countries, it is helping to ease immediate fiscal pressures.
Tue, Sep 30, 2025
Is the US currency rescue for Argentina positive statecraft or reckless favoritism?
New Atlanticist By Martin Mühleisen
A twenty-billion-dollar US support package for Argentina announced last week provides crucial breathing room for President Javier Milei.
Image: The IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings kick off in Washington, DC on October 13, 2025. Photo by Katherine Golden/Atlantic Council.
