What to know about Trump’s war on drug trafficking from Venezuela
“What you’re doing right now—it’s not training.” This is what US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told US sailors and Marines on Monday aboard the USS Iwo Jima off the coast of Puerto Rico. His visit to the Caribbean came a week after US forces struck and sunk a boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking in the waters near Venezuela. While the US boat strike on September 2 has received a lot of media attention, less recognition has gone to how this operation fits within several partially overlapping US policies—toward the Maduro regime in Venezuela in particular and the Western Hemisphere more broadly. Below, our experts clarify what’s new, what’s notable, and what to expect next.
1. How is the US military’s role in the region changing?
The Trump administration’s actions to increase US military capability and presence in the Caribbean and Latin American region are decisive, send a very clear message, and, I believe, are long overdue. However, we shouldn’t be surprised by this. During the administration’s first term, it launched one of the largest US military operations in this region against drug cartels under the operational command and control of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which laid the groundwork for what we’re seeing in the second term.
In April 2020, US SOUTHCOM received Navy destroyers, Coast Guard cutters, surveillance aircraft, and Army units for this counternarcotics mission that continued into 2021. In his January 2025 inauguration speech, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to designate drug cartels and transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists, which took place in February. Trump also called for the total elimination of cartels and TCOs, and he is following through with his mandate. The designation unlocks new tools for US law enforcement and the US military to target these groups and their financial networks.
For decades the United States has been interdicting drug vessels in the Caribbean. As I have said many times, the United States can’t simply interdict its way out of this. Deadly drugs continue flooding into the United States and killing Americans. Venezuela is one of the largest humanitarian crises of our time, with over eight million Venezuelans having fled the country into Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries whose economies were greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and are having a really hard time supporting this continued increased migration flow.
Maduro, who stole the 2024 Venezuelan election from Edmundo González, is a bad actor aligned with US adversaries Iran, Russia, and China (known as the “Axis of Aggressors”) and the drug cartels and TCOs. With his close relations with Tehran, Moscow, and Beijing, Maduro facilitates relationships with Cuba and Nicaragua, perpetuating illegal activities close to the southern coast of the United States and destabilizing the wider region. Last year at US SOUTHCOM, we determined that the drug cartels/TCOs amassed over $310 billion in revenue in 2023, which is more than five times the combined defense budgets of the thirty-one nations in LAC. Also, the administration increased the bounty on Maduro to fifty million dollars, and it has said this is a war on narco-terrorists.
In order for US SOUTHCOM to be successful in this counternarcotics mission for Team USA, it needs persistent military capability and presence all the time—not just one or two times a year for a couple of weeks. The Western Hemisphere is the hemisphere we live in, and it has desperately needed our consistent and persistent attention for many years. While in uniform, I testified that the region needed an Economic Recovery Act similar to the Marshall Plan in 1948, due to the crime wave that ensued after the COVID-19 pandemic. The actions taking place today are getting after this deficit of US presence, and Team USA is on the field with their jerseys on, and strategically engaged in the region.
—Laura J. Richardson is a retired four-star general in the US Army who commanded SOUTHCOM from 2021 to 2024. She is on the Atlantic Council’s board of directors and the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center‘s advisory council..
2. Could US strikes in Venezuela be next?
We should take Trump at his word when he hints that the United States is evaluating the possibility of striking targets inside Venezuelan territory. It’s a bad time to be operating a drug smuggling business off the coast of the eastern state of Sucre, to be posted in a guerrilla encampment in western Táchira, or to be running a cocaine lab along the Colombian border in Zulia state. One big challenge for US military planners, however, is that Venezuela has a functional air defense system, which it has kept running with the help of Russian advisors. Any strikes in Venezuelan territory may have to first take out air defenses, which could further complicate US relations with Moscow at an already tense moment.
There is also the risk that any strikes on Venezuelan infrastructure or military assets could provoke an escalatory response from the Venezuelan armed forces. So far, the United States has carefully avoided striking any target that could destabilize the country or risk provoking an internal armed conflict. Last week, the USS Jason Dunham kept a cool head when two Venezuelan F-16s flew over the vessel twice in less than twenty-four hours, suggesting that—for now—the White House is interested in avoiding direct engagement with the Venezuelan military. That could change, but for now I think we’ll see continued saber rattling that appears aimed at signaling to disaffected elements of the Venezuelan armed forces that now is the time to rise up against strongman President Nicolás Maduro. The problem with this approach is that US-backed operations have failed to produce such cracks inside the Venezuelan government over the past twenty years.
All of this points to the big question: Is the United States looking to advance regime change, or is it looking to advance democracy at the same time as it advances energy, migration control, and other geopolitical interests? The past few weeks have seen a military buildup and mounting pressure, but as recently as July, Washington eased restrictions on Venezuela’s oil exports after negotiating a prisoner release. Even now, in spite of the tensions, the United States and Venezuela are cooperating on the president’s migration agenda. The US government is funding twice-weekly Immigration and Customs Enforcement deportation flights that take off directly from US military installations and land in Venezuela’s largest airport. All of this suggests that the White House is moving forward an “America first” approach that is focused on advancing US core interests while also taking transnational drug trafficking seriously. Careful targeting, clear communication, and a focus on the importance of restoring democracy through targeted pressure and strategic engagement will be crucial in the weeks to come.
—Geoff Ramsey is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center and former director of the Venezuela program at the Washington Office on Latin America.
3. How are US military operations affecting the wider Caribbean?
In the wake of the US deployment of naval assets to the region, most Caribbean leaders have issued statements for the region to remain a “zone of peace.” However, the region currently is far from peaceful. The Caribbean is a transit point for small arms and drugs, both of which fuel gang activity, homicides, and crime in many of the islands. In fact, some Caribbean countries have among the highest homicide rates in the Americas. Further, Maduro’s persistent aggressive antics on the border with Guyana—via naval, land, and air incursions—have dissipated the mirage that the Caribbean region remains peaceful. Therefore, the United States should work closely with Guyana to ensure that the country does not become a victim to any aggression from Maduro as he gets backed into a corner by current and future US operations.
Still, while a more aggressive approach toward counternarcotic operations might be warranted, ad-hoc operations will not provide long-term security in the Caribbean. What’s needed are sustained efforts backed by financial and technical assistance. Fortunately, the Trump administration and the US Congress have the tools at their disposal to do so through pending renewal of the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI). Increasing the budget of CBSI is a must. Presently, the proposed $88 million allocated to the Caribbean across thirteen islands barely puts a dent in stemming the movement of illegal guns and drugs. Further, continued diplomatic outreach to Caribbean leaders is needed to ensure that counternarcotic operations are a cooperative mechanism, ensuring that most governments come onboard. In addition to helping stem the flow of drugs in the region, US-Caribbean cooperation will have the added benefit of potentially isolating Maduro further from his regional allies.
—Wazim Mowla is the fellow and lead of the Caribbean Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
4. How can the United States declare victory in this operation?
Trump came to office promising to put an end to “forever wars” abroad, while also promising to take seriously the threat of transnational organized crime and drug trafficking, and to address it with US force if necessary. Thus far, that’s what this operation is seeking to achieve—and balance. The challenge for the White House is clear: What is a win in this counternarcotics operation and how could it be sustained? If the operation ratchets up to strikes inside Venezuela, then how is this done in a way to avoid further destabilization that could have cross-border impacts? With multiple armed groups operating in Venezuela and a military that has so far shown allegiance to Maduro, a US missile strike on drug labs, for example, could bring secondary ramifications. And would any strikes inside Venezuela be limited to only counternarcotics targets or could they include Venezuelan military installations?
The last major US military operation in Latin America came during Operation Just Cause to oust Panama’s Manuel Noriega over thirty-five years ago, but that was an operation where the US relied on precision bombs rather than long-range missile strikes. Success in this operation would likely involve long-term, significant ratcheting up of US military presence to halt drug smuggling operations at sea.
Maduro is clearly thinking of a plan B, one that involves sparking an internal armed conflict if this US operation goes beyond counternarcotics and attempts to remove him from power—through direct US actions, an internal uprising, or a combination of both. Venezuela’s militia may not number four million, as Maduro has claimed, but there are certainly enough fighters to fuel a years-long civil war that could accelerate outward migration and fuel instability in South America. In Colombia, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) guerrillas numbered just twenty thousand at their peak in the 1990s, and they unleashed havoc on the country. With that number they were able to threaten not just the Colombian countryside but the power centers in Bogotá and other major cities. That should be a cautionary tale for anyone who thinks that regime change in Venezuela will be quick or easy if it leaves out segments of the Venezuelan population.
So, what’s next? In the coming days, Maduro may reach out via his ongoing communication with the White House, potentially making offers around oil and critical minerals, or otherwise seeking to leverage Venezuela’s natural resources to strike a deal. If this happens, then the administration should proceed with caution and press for democratic reforms, the release of political prisoners, and an end to the persecution of opposition activists. Maduro is a serial abuser of dialogue, so any offers should be clearly weighed against past noncompliance. Of course, the focus of any kind of future talks should be on how to advance a peaceful, democratic solution—one based on credible commitments rather than false promises.
—Jason Marczak is vice president and senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
Further reading
Fri, Aug 29, 2025
Why are US warships heading toward Venezuela?
New Atlanticist By
Three Aegis guided-missile destroyers and several other US warships are headed to the waters near Venezuela. Two Atlantic Council experts explain why and what to expect next.
Wed, Mar 26, 2025
An ‘America first’ approach to Venezuela is taking shape
New Atlanticist By Geoff Ramsey
US tariff threats against countries importing Venezuelan oil seem geared toward extracting concessions from strongman leader Nicolás Maduro.
Wed, Aug 6, 2025
How the US and Colombia can tackle crime, migration, and fallout from Venezuela’s crisis
Issue Brief By Lucie Kneip, Geoff Ramsey
Despite differences in priorities and political approaches, opportunities exist for the US and Colombia to coordinate policy that promotes stability in Venezuela and the broader region.
Image: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth salutes US service members while on board the USS Iwo Jima, Sept. 8, 2025. (Photograph by US Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Aiko Bongolan)
