TRADE IN ACTION November 9, 2018
11 9 18 tile

US: In the 2018 Midterm elections, Democrats were able to gain control of the House Representatives for the first time in 8 years while Republicans were able to expand their majority hold of the Senate, creating a divided Congress. Overall, the results did not provide much clarity on how the electorate views the administration’s trade policies. President Trump announced the termination of trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for Mauritania on Jan. 1 for not making sufficient progress on ending forced labor practices.
USMCA: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on November 5, that US tariffs were not the reason Canada agreed to a new trade deal, countering previous remarks by President Trump. Additionally, North American aluminum associations joined forces in a letter to the leaders of the three nations to remove his tariffs on aluminum from Canada and Mexico before the three countries sign a new trade agreement by the end of the month.
China: On November 5, Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to lower tariffs, broaden market access and increase imports at the China International Import Expo (CIIE), a conference planned as a sign of goodwill amidst the US-China trade war. 
Iran: The US reinstated sanctions against Iran on November 5, but exempted 8 nations (China, India, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey) allowing them to continue to buy Iranian oil without consequences.

US-EU: After a delegation from the European Commission was in Washington on Oct. 23-26 to advance talks,  EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström will head to Washington next week to meet with USTR Lighthizer on Wednesday.
US-China: President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agree to talks at G-20 summit to be held on November 30 to December 1 in Buenos Aires. 
USMCA: US, Mexico and Canada will sign the USMCA deal on Nov. 30 on the sidelines of the G-20 summit.
US-Japan: The administration is also planning to hold a hearing about the trade talks with Japan in December. 
EU-Japan: The European Parliament’s international trade committee voted 25 in favor to 10 against on November 5, putting the ambitious EU-Japan trade deal to a final vote in the parliament’s full chamber set for December 13.


US Sanctions: Using a Coercive and Economic Tool Effectively 
By David Mortlock and Brian O’Toole 

In “US Sanctions: Using a Coercive Economic and Financial Tool Effectively” authors and Atlantic Council senior fellows David Mortlock and Brian O’Toole explain what sanctions are and why they are used. The authors assess the Trump Administration’s use of sanctions and outline the conditions under which sanctions are most effective. Finally, Mortlock and O’Toole provide specific recommendations on what steps the US government must take to ensure sanctions remain a key component of the national security toolkit. Read the full issue brief here

The Midterms: What Happens Next?
By Ashish Kumar Sen

Democrats captured the House of Representatives while Republicans strengthened their Senate majority in the US midterm elections on November 6. Ashish Kumar Sen asked Atlantic Council analysts, including senior fellows of the Global Business and Economics Program, what they believe are the policy implications of this outcome. Read what they had to say here.  

Fact Sheet: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Fact Sheet Supporting America’s Small and Medium-Sized Business, Office of the United States Trade Representative
Analysis: US Farmers Aren’t Checking Trump on Trade, Nathaniel Taplin, Wall Street Journal  
Opinion: Midterm Results Won’t Deter Trump on China Trade War, Doug Palmer, Politico
Opinion: The Biggest 2018 Midterm Loser: Trade Liberalization, Daniel W. Drezner, Washington Post 
Analysis: American Voters Just Sent a Surprising Message About the Trade War, Andrew Mayeda, Bloomberg
Analysis: Here’s What the US Election Results Mean for Trump’s Trade War With China, Nyshka Chandran, CNBC
Policy Brief: What Might a Trump Withdrawal from the World Trade Organization Mean for US Tariffs? Chad P. Bown and Douglas A. Irwin, Peterson Institute for International Economics 
Opinion: Conflict Between the US and China Is Not Inevitable , Financial Times 
Analysis: China Seeks Allies as Trump’s Trade War Mounts. It Won’t Be Easy. Keith Bradsher, New York Times
Opinion: Trump’s Trade War With China Matters More to the Market Than the Elections and It’s Not Going Well, Patti Domm, CNBC 
Analysis: Even Lobsters Can’t Escape Trump’s Trade War, Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg
Analysis: The Trade War Inside the Democratic Party, Keith Johnson, Foreign Policy
Opinion:  Wilbur ‘Killer’ Ross Isn’t Worried About the Trade Wars, Devin Leonard and Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg 
Analysis: Global Trade Tracker: Steady, But for How Long? Michelle Jamrisko, Chloe Whiteaker and Cedric Sam, Bloomberg
Analysis: The Enduring Benefits of Trade EU Deals With Developing Countries Show Gains On Both Sides , Financial Times
Opinion: When We Speak For Ourselves, We Flourish- and Our Status in the WTO Is No Exception,  Liam Fox, Gov.UK
News: WTO Upholds Japan’s Complaint Over India’s Safeguard on Steel Imports, Yuka Obayashi and Tom Miles, Reuters
StudyFinding the Right Balance across EU FTAs: Benefits and Risks for EU Economic Sectors, Policy Department for External Relations, European Parliament


Did you know… 
that at least 123 women will be in the next Congress after Tuesday’s midterm elections, breaking the 115th Congress’ record of 112?  More milestones as reported by Axios:
– 40 women of color who are headed to the House. (The current number is 38.) 
– The first female senator from Tennessee.
– The first female governors of South Dakota and Maine.
– Michelle Lujan Grisham is the first Democratic Latina elected as a governor.
– 33 congressional races featured two women facing off against each other, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.  

Did you know…
that according to the Washington Post, many policy issues such as tariffs and gun control that were heavily debated in the beginning of the year seemed to have been largely irrelevant to many voters in the lead up to the midterm elections? By October only a handful of rural counties seemed to still care about tariffs. Read the full article here.

Speech: Three Bridges to a Prosperous Future, International Monetary Fund 
Blog: When History Rhymes, Christine Lagarde, IMF Blog 
OpinionThe Bogus Backlash to Globalization, Charles Kenny, Foreign Affairs  
OpinionThe Dollar Can Defend its Global Reserve Role Against EU and China, Megan GreeneFinancial Times 
Analysis: The IMF: The World’s Controversial Financial Firefighter, Jonathan Masters, Council on Foreign Relations
Opinion: Using Technology To Accomplish All That International Trade Promises, David Mounts, Forbes
Blog: Social Business, Youth and Technology to Accelerate Climate Action to 1.5℃, Max Thabsio EdkinsThe World Bank
Opinion: Here’s What Central Asia Teaches Us About Inclusive Growth, Aleem Walji, Devex

News: A List of Firsts For Women In This Year’s Midterm Elections, Danielle Kurtzleben, NPR 
AnalysisHistory Echoes as Trump Heads to Armistice Day Centennial, Stewart M. Patrick,Council on Foreign Relations 
Analysis: The Midterms Mark A Turning Point In the Trump Presidency, David Remnick, The New Yorker
AnalysisWhat 2018 Elections Could Tell Us About The 2020 Presidential Map, Jessica Taylor, NPR 
PaperThe State Of Investment In Europe And The World, The European Political Strategy Centre, European Commission
Chart: China Can Nearly Meet Xi’s Import Target Without Doing Anything, Charlotte Yang, Caixin
Analysis: The Two-Gap Workforce Challenge, Thomas J. Donohue, US Chamber of Commerce

November 13: Defending Sovereignty and Information Space, Atlantic Council 
November 14: Cyber Risk Wednesday: The Human Element of Cybersecurity, Atlantic Council 
November 16: Understanding Russia’s Domestic Political Landscape, Atlantic Council 
November 28: The State of Ukraine’s Energy Sector, Atlantic Council
November 9:Economic Security as National Security: A Discussion with Dr. Peter Navarro, Center for Strategic & International Studies
November 13: World Order Without America? Brookings Institute
November 14: Central Asia’s Economic Picture, Center for Strategic & International Studies

Your Newsletter Team:

Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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