HEADLINES:
G20: Leader’s of the world’s largest economic powers gathered in Buenos Aires, Argentina for the Group of 20 summit on December 1st. However, the final statement dropped language from previous years to renounce protectionism. Argentine President Mauricio Macri and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping reached a trade agreement on the sidelines of the summit, set to increase trade between the two countries.
(Temporary) Trade War Truce: Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping of China announced a truce in the trade war to allow more time for negotiations by holding off on new tariffs for 90 days (starting December 1). This means that US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods will not rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1, from 10 percent currently. China agreed to purchase more U.S. agricultural, energy and other products. However, none of the commitments were agreed to in writing and many details still need to be determined. On December 5, Chinese officials said they are “confident in implementing” trade commitments made to the US “as soon as possible”, without giving details.
USMCA/NAFTA: President Trump is strong-arming Congress into approving USMCA, as he intends to formally notify Mexico and Canada of his plan to withdraw from the nearly 25-year-old NAFTA deal in six months. Consequently, Congress will have to choose between the USMCA or pre-NAFTA trade relations. The US is still working on a deal for Mexico and Canada to earn exemptions from steel and aluminum tariffs. Many see the removal of those duties as a crucial and necessary step before USMCA can be approved in Congress.
UPCOMING:
US-China: A delegation of Chinese officials is expected to visit Washington, possibly in mid-December.
EU-Japan: EU-Japan trade deal will be put to a final vote in the parliament’s full chamber set for December 13.
TRADE:
Official Announcement: USDA Announces 2019 Trade Missions to Expand Export Opportunities for U.S. Agriculture, United States Department of Agriculture
News: China Announces Punishments for Intellectual-Property Theft , Bloomberg
News: Trump Announces Chinese Rollback of Auto Tariffs, Quint Forgey and Doug Palmer, Politico
News: US Trade Deficit at Widest Level in 10 Years Matthew Rocco, Financial Times
Analysis: Trump’s China Truce Calms Markets, But He Chooses a Hard-Liner to Lead Talks, Alan Rappeport, New York Times
Analysis: Don’t Blame China Trade Truce Uncertainty, the Fed Undercuts the Market Again, Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes
Analysis: 6 Key Things Xi and Trump Discussed at G-20 Dinner, Teddy Ng, South China Morning Post
Opinion: Trump is Strong-Arming Congress Into Accepting the New NAFTA, The Economist
Opinion: Tariffs Aren’t Trump’s Only Trade War Weapon, Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg
News: China to ‘Immediately’ Implement Measures of Trade Truce with US, Al Jazeera
Opinion: Trump Undermines His Own Trade Truce With China, Adam Taylor, Washington Post
Interview: With White House Adviser Peter Navarro on US- China trade truce , Steve Inskeep, NPR
News: Trump, Self-Styled ‘Tariff Man,’ Issues China a Warning, Alan Rappeport, New York Times
Analysis: US-China Trade Truce Gives Both Sides Political Breathing Room, Keith Bradsher and Alan Rappeport, New York Times
News: German Car Bosses Optimistic After Meeting Trump, Deutsche Welle
FACTOID OF THE WEEK:
Did you know…
… that the US trade deficit reached a 10-year high in October at $55.5 billion?
The trade gap has continued to widen despite Trump’s punitive tariffs meant to reduce Chinese imports and force China to address unfair trade practices. A surge in imports resulted from American companies stocking up on Chinese goods ahead of the holidays to get ahead of another increase in US tariffs. Exports decreased largely because of a big drop in soybean shipments. Read more here.
GLOBALIZATION:
Analysis: Global Perspectives: G20 Leaders Summit, CIGI, SAIIA, SWP, SIIS, and CARI, Council on Foreign Relations
Analysis: Global Growth Cools, Leaving Scars of ’08 Unhealed, Peter S. Goodman, New York Times
Staff Discussion Note: Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion: New Mechanisms, New Evidence, Jonathan David Ostry, Jorge Alvarez, Raphael A. Espinoza and Chris Papageorgiou, IMF
News: Bulgaria Will Shun UN Migration Pact, Angel Krasimirov and Toby Chopra, Reuters
News:The US Got Its Own Section in the G20 Statement on Climate Change, Emily Stewart, Vox
News: France’s Deadly and Growing Protests, in 17 Pictures, Alex Ward and Kainaz Amaria, Vox
WHAT WE ARE READING:
Analysis: How George H.W. Bush Pushed the United States to Embrace Free Trade, Amanda Erickson, Washington Post
Radio: Trade War and Peace, Stacey Vanek Smith and Cardiff Garcia, Planet Money, NPR
Analysis: The World Makes Room for Trump, David Herszenhorn, Andrew Restuccia and Hans von der Burchard, Politico
Analysis: Brexit Vote: What Could Happen Next? Peter Barnes, BBC
Analysis: The Best Way Out of the Brexit Mess, The Economist
Blog: The Uneven Path Ahead: The Effect of Brexit on Different Sectors in the UK Economy,Jiaqian Chen, IMF Blog
Opinion: The Foreign Policy Brilliance of George H. W. Bush, Ivo H. Daalder and I. M. Destler, Foreign Affairs
Analysis: How to Avoid War Between America and China, Sulmaan Khan, Foreign Affairs
Big Read: OPEC: Why Trump Has Saudi Arabia Over a Barrel, David Sheppard, Financial Times
UPCOMING EVENTS:
December 13: Rising Populism and the Future of Europe, Atlantic Council. Please register with Alvaro Weis at AWeis@ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG
December 12: A Conversation on Financial Inclusion with World Bank CEO Kirstalina Georgieva, Council on Foreign Relations
December 12: A Conversation with Christine Lagarde, Council on Foreign Relations
December 13: Targeted Sanctions on Human Rights Abusers and Kleptocracies: Lessons Learned and Opportunities from the Global Magnitsky Sanctions, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Christina Gay, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Raina Hasan, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email mkasperek@AtlanticCouncil.org with your ideas and suggestions.
The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.
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