The issue of security guarantees for Ukraine has emerged in recent weeks as a key focus of diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s invasion and achieve a lasting peace in Eastern Europe. But while almost everyone appears to agree that security guarantees are an essential element of any peace deal, there is currently no consensus over what these guarantees should actually involve.
At present, the emerging picture of future security guarantees appears to have four key components. These include a sustained allied military presence in or near Ukraine, robust air defense support, long-term weapons supplies, and mechanisms to monitor any potential ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he wants NATO-style commitments that would bind guarantor states to defend Ukraine, and insists any guarantees should be ratified by participating governments. European nations are expected to take the lead in providing security guarantees, with the United States playing a crucial but as yet undefined supporting role.
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Much of the discussion over security guarantees has focused on the deployment of a military contingent to Ukraine in order to help enforce and monitor any ceasefire agreement. However, the potential composition and exact role of such a force remain unclear. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently told the Financial Times that Europe has a “pretty precise” plan in place to send troops to Ukraine, but other senior European officials have since suggested that her comments were premature.
Europe appears to be divided over the issue of sending troops to Ukraine. France and Britain have committed to leading what is being called a reassurance force, with others including Sweden, Denmark, Belgium, and Lithuania signalling their readiness to also contribute soldiers. In contrast, Poland, Italy, Spain, and the Czech Republic have rejected the idea of deploying troops to Ukraine, while Germany has so far adopted a skeptical stance.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has ruled out the presence of American soldiers in Ukraine. Instead, discussions are reportedly underway over the possible participation of private US military companies as part of a long-term peace plan for Ukraine. American contractors could potentially perform a number of functions including the strengthening of Ukraine’s air defenses.
The key question regarding the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil is whether they would be given a mandate to engage in combat operations. In other words, would European soldiers be allowed to fight back if attacked by Russia? Critics have noted that this is unlikely. Instead, they argue, any foreign troop contingent deployed to Ukraine would be largely symbolic with no meaningful military role.
International military involvement of some kind in the air and maritime domains may be more realistic. Ukrainian officials are hopeful that the country’s European partners will participate in air patrols to defend Ukraine against Russian drone and missile attacks. Allied countries may also contribute to the strengthening of Ukraine’s existing network of air defense systems. This could lead to significantly enhanced security over at least a portion of Ukraine’s skies, creating opportunities for the resumption of commercial flights and providing a safer environment for the civilian population.
Similar support in the Black Sea is also under discussion, with the Turkish navy expected to play a prominent role. With Russia’s Black Sea Fleet already weakened by Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, allied involvement could help safeguard maritime supply corridors and secure uninterrupted trade flows from Ukrainian ports. This would provide the country with an important economic boost and help ease the pressure on congested land routes via Poland and Romania.
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While Ukrainian officials will certainly welcome further talk of troops on the ground, air shields, and naval missions, any serious discussion of security guarantees must acknowledge that Western leaders are deeply reluctant to risk direct military confrontation with the Kremlin. With this in mind, Ukraine’s most realistic security strategy lies not in empty promises or symbolic deployments of foreign soldiers, but in strengthening the country’s own defense capabilities.
Kyiv’s top priorities in this context include securing the continued supply of US and European weapons, ongoing intelligence support, and increased international investment in the rapidly expanding Ukrainian defense industry. Integration into existing European security structures will be crucial, including full coordination of the Ukrainian military with foreign partners providing the aviation and naval components of any future security guarantees.
Greater cooperation between Ukrainian defense tech companies and their Western counterparts can also contribute to the process of strengthening security ties between Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Today’s Ukraine has unrivalled experience in drone warfare and numerous other aspects of the contemporary battlefield. This makes the country a strategic partner with much to offer its European neighbors.
At present, a strong Ukraine looks to be by far the most realistic deterrent against further Russian aggression. This will require extensive material support and binding long-term political commitments from Kyiv’s allies, but is unlikely to involve a major foreign military presence in Ukraine.
The benefits of backing Ukraine will be potentially far-reaching for Europe as a whole. A strengthened and integrated Ukrainian military can serve as a bastion of European security for years to come as the continent seeks to modernize its military and adapt to the new geopolitical realities of an isolationist United States and an expansionist Russia.
Elena Davlikanova is a senior fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis and Sahaidachny Security Center.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: Servicemen of 39th Separate Coastal Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kherson region. March 23, 2025. REUTERS/Ivan Antypenko
