Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the front lines this week to congratulate his troops on a counteroffensive that has reversed more than a year of Russian gains and thwarted Kremlin plans to encircle the strategically vital fortress belt cities of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. The success of Operation Vivaldi has showcased Ukraine’s mastery of drone warfare and confirmed the country’s continued ability to defeat the invading Russian army.
Beyond the battlefield, however, the outlook is far more favorable for the Kremlin. In recent months, it has become increasingly evident that Russia holds the upper hand in the air war against Ukraine. Putin now aims to exploit this advantage and break Ukrainian resistance by terrorizing the civilian population with a bombing campaign designed to disrupt every aspect of daily life and make much of the country unlivable.
Russia’s current dominance in the air reflects a number of converging factors. Since early 2026, Ukraine’s ability to protect against ballistic missile strikes has been severely eroded by the depletion of the country’s Patriot air defense interceptors. With Patriot interceptor stocks running low globally amid unprecedented usage during the US campaign against Iran, this has left Ukraine’s cities dangerously exposed to Russian ballistic missile attacks. The Kremlin is well aware of this vulnerability and has cranked up production while modifying its existing arsenal, leading to a series of record ballistic bombardments in recent months.
In parallel, Russia has also developed a new generation of jet drones that feature a range of upgraded performance characteristics and are more than two times faster than their propeller-driven predecessors, making them much more difficult to intercept. Ukrainian defense tech engineers are racing to develop solutions capable of countering the jet drone threat, but it may take months before suitable systems can be produced and deployed in sufficient quantities to neutralize Russia’s new terror weapon. In the meantime, dozens of deadly jet drones are penetrating Ukraine’s overstretched defenses and hitting targets across the country every single day.
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Russia’s current ascendancy in the air is transforming the security situation for Ukraine’s civilian population. Mounting ballistic missile strikes have led to a surge in the civilian death toll, with the number of people killed in July rising 70 percent compared to the previous year according to United Nations data. Meanwhile, relentless waves of daytime jet drone attacks are causing the breakdown of everyday life in Ukraine’s major cities with schools, offices, businesses, and public transport unable to operate.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population are nothing new, of course. Ever since the first days of the full-scale invasion, Russian forces have routinely targeted civilian infrastructure, while tens of thousands of Ukrainian residents are thought to have been killed during the capture of Mariupol in the initial stages of the war. In each of the past four wartime winters, Moscow has attempted to freeze Ukrainians into submission by bombing the country’s power grid. Nevertheless, most observers agree that the current campaign is on a different scale altogether.
The Kremlin appears to have abandoned any attempt to disguise its terror tactics and is now openly striking a wide variety of civilian targets. In recent days, Russian jet drones have hit the National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv along with hospitals, schools, supermarkets, fuel stations, internet data hubs, business centers, and one of the busiest bridges across the Dnipro River. Far from being indiscriminate, jet drone targets seem to be selected specifically in order to foster an all-pervasive sense of insecurity among the population. British journal The Economist has labeled these attacks a “terror campaign” aimed at exhausting the Ukrainian public and crippling ordinary life in the capital city.
In parallel, the Kremlin is seeking to destroy Ukraine’s economic potential to continue the war. The endless air raid alarms sparked by round-the-clock jet drone attacks bring business to a halt and cost Ukraine approximately $45 million per hour. A series of Russian ballistic strikes in recent months have devastated the country’s economically vital steel industry, with numerous major metallurgical plants forced to cease operations. In the south, Russian airstrikes on port infrastructure and maritime traffic have also led to the shutdown of Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports, which have traditionally served as the key gateway for Ukrainian agricultural and industrial exports headed to global markets.
Putin has further underlined his intentions by targeting Ukraine’s railways and ordering airstrikes close to border crossings connecting the country to its European neighbors. With most of Ukraine’s freight cargo transported by rail and with millions of Ukrainians relying on trains for wartime travel, Russia’s escalating attacks on the rail network represent a twin threat to the civilian population and to the Ukrainian economy.
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There are now fears that Russia’s terror bombing campaign will intensify significantly in the coming weeks. Ukrainian officials and analysts believe the Kremlin has stockpiled large quantities of ballistic missiles and jet drones, with plans in place for a dramatic increase in attacks as winter draws closer and temperatures begin to plummet. The goal of this escalation will be to break Ukrainian morale and create the conditions for Kyiv’s capitulation.
The Ukrainian public have earned an unrivaled reputation for resilience since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, but the coming winter will test this legendary endurance to the limit. As the cold season approaches, the country requires urgent international support to prevent a collapse.
Kyiv’s most pressing need is for more Patriot missile interceptors. With too few interceptors currently being produced, partner nations must dip into their own stocks to help defend Ukraine against Putin’s ballistic blitz. Financial support is also required to scale up production of Ukrainian interceptors capable of nullifying the drone jet threat.
Crucially, Kyiv’s partners must also find tens of billions of dollars to cover rapidly expanding gaps in the Ukrainian budget that could otherwise derail the war effort. This is a particularly unpopular request at a time when many European countries are facing worsening domestic financial situations of their own, but failure to act could have disastrous consequences that would be felt far beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Putin’s current terror campaign is the latest signal that he remains determined to extinguish Ukrainian statehood and revive Russia’s superpower status. If he succeeds in subjugating Ukraine, his entire war policy will be vindicated and he will personally control the two most powerful armies in Europe. This new geopolitical reality would dramatically undermine European security and necessitate a massive increase in defense spending that would dwarf the current cost of supporting Ukraine. It is therefore in Europe’s interests to dig deeper now and make sure the Ukrainians receive everything they need in order to survive the coming winter and bring the war home to Russia.
Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert service.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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Image: Ihor Malchevsky, 69, a deputy department head at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences, tries to evacuate an administrative building hit by a Russian jet-powered drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine, September 28, 2026. (REUTERS/Alina Smutko)