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EconoGraphics

Sep 17, 2018

Turkish Outbreak: Risk of Emerging Market Contagion?

By Christina Gay and Ole Moehr

With the strengthening of the US dollar in the wake of continued interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve and brewing pressures in a number of emerging market (EM), portfolio flows into EM countries slowed from $13.7 billion in July to just $2.2 billion in August. Companies and banks in both Argentina and Turkey borrowed heavily in dollar denominated debt while interest rates were low and are now faced with mounting debt burdens, which, if not backed by sufficient reserves puts them at risk for default if investors lose confidence. The Turkish lira has fallen over 40 percent in 2018. Its sharp decline in August raised concern of contagion to other markets, as the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand, and the Indian rupee have also come under pressure. This edition of the Econographic compares situation in Turkey with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, analyzes root causes of the current pressures in Turkey, and assesses the broader implications for EM economies.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Aug 8, 2018

JEEPA – Japan-EU Free Trade Agreement Leaves the US Out in the Cold

By Cecilia Pan and Ole Moehr

While President Trump is pursuing a protectionist trade agenda – halting negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and threatening trade wars against adversaries and allies – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been doing just the opposite. As part of Abenomics’ third arrow, the Prime Minister is forging global partnerships between Japan and other leading economies to foster economic growth. Case in point, the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) signed on July 17, 2018. This edition of the EconoGraphic will review this ambitious bilateral free trade agreement, assess its impact on the US economy, and explore the consequences of the United States’ retreat from its role as the global leader for free trade.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Jul 19, 2018

US Iran Sanctions Could SpOIL the Global Economy

By Ole Moehr

The Trump Administration’s “maximum pressure” approach against Iran to reduce Iranian crude oil exports to zero as soon as possible is expected to rattle markets and could undermine the credibility and effectiveness of US sanctions. This edition of the EconoGraphic outlines how re-imposed US sanctions against Iran will affect the global oil market, the price of oil, US consumers, and the American economy.

China
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Jun 22, 2018

There’s a New Tariff in Town: Implications of Trump’s Steel Tariffs

By Ole Moehr

Economists consider tariffs a tax on consumers. Case in point, President Trump’s former chief economic advisor Gary Cohn. He recently warned that the administration’s twenty-five percent tariff on steel and ten percent tariff on aluminum combined with threatened duties on Chinese goods could cancel out the 2017 tax cut. This edition of the EconoGraphic provides an overview of how the Trump Administration’s steel tariffs might impact the US economy.

Economy & Business
Trade and tariffs

EconoGraphics

Jun 4, 2018

GDPR’s Quest for World Domination

By Ole Moehr

On May 25, the European Union’s (EU) sweeping new data privacy regulation came into force. The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provides EU residents with more control and protection of their data.

Brazil
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

May 18, 2018

US Sanctions’ Global Impact – A Case Study of RUSAL’s Supply Chain

By Ole Moehr

On April 6, 2018, the Trump Administration imposed stiff economic sanctions on 37 Russian oligarchs, oligarch-owned companies, Russian government officials, and state-owned companies.

Economy & Business
Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Apr 12, 2018

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

By Ole Moehr, Zachary Coles, and Alexatrini Tsiknia

Africa Embraces the Promise of Free Trade

Africa
Economy & Business

EconoGraphics

Mar 20, 2018

Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency: Should OFAC Be Petrofied?

By Ole Moehr, Zachary Coles, and Alexatrini Tsiknia

Venezuela’s Cryptocurrency: Should OFAC be Petrofied? The short answer is no.

Economy & Business
Financial Sanctions and Economic Coercion

EconoGraphics

Feb 26, 2018

Are Italians giving the establishment the boot?

By Alexatrini Tsiknia and Ole Moehr

Italians go to the polls on March 4th to elect a new government. Under a new electoral system, the outcome is uncertain. The Global Business and Economics program looks at some key economic indicators that could influence the election.

Economy & Business
European Union

EconoGraphics

Feb 6, 2018

Secondary Sanctions: A First Glance

By Ole Moehr

This edition of our EconoGraphic blog explains the difference between primary and secondary sanctions, outlines how secondary sanctions work, and uses a case study to demonstrate how the United States employs secondary sanctions in the real economy.

China
Economy & Business

Content

EconoGraphics

Apr 21, 2022

Two years in: Assessing US and Euro area’s pandemic fiscal responses

By Jeff Goldstein

Policymakers should examine their country’s fiscal policy infrastructure to ensure both approaches can be efficiently utilized during a future crisis.

Economy & Business
Europe & Eurasia

Econographics

Apr 21, 2022

The North-South divide is growing. Can a new Bretton Woods help?

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

The growing divide is under the scanner as US Treasury Secretary Yellen and Colombian Finance Minister Restrepo both voiced a need to modernize the institutions.

Americas
China

Econographics

Apr 20, 2022

China to roll out its version of quantitative easing

By Hung Tran

China's new Financial Stability Law creates a new framework for furthering financial stability in the country. This has implications for the United States, which is undergoing fiscal tightening, as well as emerging markets, where portfolio capital has begun flowing outward.

China
East Asia

Econographics

Apr 12, 2022

Economic and financial multilateralism in disarray 

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

Multilateral development banks and multilateral financial institutions have grown in number. This could be a blessing and a curse.

Africa
Americas

Econographics

Apr 11, 2022

“Inequality starts at the top”: Voting reforms in Bretton Woods Institutions

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

Full democratization of BWIs is not realistic. A more pragmatic approach would work towards a “double majority” system.

Africa
Americas

Econographics

Apr 11, 2022

Democratic challenges at Bretton Woods Institutions

By Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou

Voting quotas at Bretton Woods Institutions continue reflecting the 1944 power structure, despite significant changes to the global economy.

Africa
Americas

Econographics

Mar 25, 2022

Beijing’s message to financial markets: We’re listening

By Daniel H. Rosen, Logan Wright

Chinese markets are in flux as they react to a domestic COVID outbreak, defaults by Chinese property developers, regulatory crackdowns against Chinese firms, and rising political risk associated with China’s alignment with Russia. The recent statement from the Financial Stability and Development Committee aims to stabilize this.

China
Economy & Business

Econographics

Mar 24, 2022

Can one statement fundamentally calm market volatility in China?

By Victor Shih

On March 16th China's Financial Stability and Development

China
Economy & Business

Econographics

Mar 22, 2022

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine threatens a global wheat crisis 

By Niels Graham and Inbar Pe'er

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has rattled global wheat markets. Both nations account for nearly a third of global wheat exports leaving importers scrambling

China
Macroeconomics

Econographics

Mar 18, 2022

US export controls aim to degrade Russia’s military

By Maia Nikoladze

As soon as the Russian military depletes current equipment, they will find it difficult to obtain critical technology for upgrading and maintaining aircrafts, ships, and weaponry used for waging an unjust war on Ukraine.

Conflict
Defense Technologies