Content

Issue Brief

Jan 31, 2022

What do we know about cyber operations during militarized crises?

By Michael Fischerkeller

This essay focuses on how cyber operations employed during militarized crises are likely to impact escalation management. Cyber operations intended as offramps in a crisis could have an outcome opposite than that intended. Given the absence of direct experience, policymakers must critically examine assumptions and claims that cyber operations can serve as de-escalatory crisis offramps.

Cybersecurity

In-Depth Research & Reports

Nov 8, 2021

Surveillance Technology at the Fair: Proliferation of Cyber Capabilities in International Arms Markets

By Winnona DeSombre, Lars Gjesvik, and Johann Ole Willers

Nation-state cyber capabilities are increasingly abiding by the “pay-to-play” model—both US/NATO allies and adversaries can purchase interception and intrusion technologies from private firms for intelligence and surveillance purposes. This paper analyzes active providers of interception/intrusion capabilities, as well as the primary arms fairs at which these players operate. The answers to these questions will allow policymakers to better understand the proliferation of cyber capabilities in the hands of irresponsible corporate actors that presents an urgent challenge to national and global security.

Arms Control Cybersecurity

Report

Sep 13, 2021

Cyber defense across the ocean floor: The geopolitics of submarine cable security

By Justin Sherman

The vast majority of intercontinental global Internet traffic—upwards of 95 percent—travels over undersea cables that run across the ocean floor. The construction of new submarine cables is a key part of the constantly changing physical topology of the Internet worldwide. However, this dependence is not matched by increased security, leaving our undersea cables—the core of the global internet—at risk.

Cybersecurity Europe & Eurasia

Issue Brief

Aug 26, 2021

Countering ransomware: Lessons from aircraft hijacking

By Simon Handler, Emma Schroeder, Frances Schroeder, and Trey Herr

Ransomware has plagued organizations for more than a decade, but the last three years have experienced a surge in both the number of incidents and the ransoms demanded. To more effectively counter ransomware, the US government should develop a strategy that draws on lessons learned from addressing a surge in aircraft hijackings through the late 1960s and early 1970s.

Cybersecurity Terrorism

Conflict, Risk, and Tech

Jul 15, 2021

A US-UK hacking probe offers a fresh approach against Russia

By Justin Sherman

The international collaboration underscores the importance of being carefully narrow about scoping cyberspace “red lines” in talks with the Russian government.

Cybersecurity Intelligence

Issue Brief

Jul 12, 2021

Reassessing RuNet: Russian internet isolation and implications for Russian cyber behavior

By Justin Sherman

This issue brief examines recent “RuNet” developments and explores how they could elevate national security risks for the United States and Europe by changing the internet landscape in Russia and potentially shifting Russian cyber behavior.

Cybersecurity Europe & Eurasia

Conflict, Risk, and Tech

Mar 24, 2021

How to reverse three decades of escalating cyber conflict

By Jason Healey and Robert Jervis

Cyber conflict has not yet escalated from a fight inside cyberspace to a more traditional armed attack because of cyberspace. In part, this is because countries understand there are some tacit upper limits to escalation above which the response from the offended country will be war. Unfortunately, this happy state may not last.

Cybersecurity Technology & Innovation

Issue Brief

Mar 1, 2021

A primer on the proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities

By Winnona DeSombre, Michele Campobasso, Dr. Luca Allodi, Dr. James Shires, JD Work, Robert Morgus, Patrick Howell O’Neill, and Dr. Trey Herr

Offensive cyber capabilities run the gamut from sophisticated, long-term disruptions of physical infrastructure to malware used to target human rights journalists. As these capabilities continue to proliferate with increasing complexity and to new types of actors, the imperative to slow and counter their spread only strengthens.

Arms Control Conflict

Report

Mar 1, 2021

Countering cyber proliferation: Zeroing in on Access-as-a-Service

By Winnona DeSombre, James Shires, JD Work, Robert Morgus, Patrick Howell O’Neill, Luca Allodi, and Trey Herr

The proliferation of offensive cyber capabilities (OCC) presents an expanding set of risks to states and challenges commitments to protect openness, security, and stability in cyberspace. Access as a Service firms offer various forms of “access” to target data or systems, and through these business practices are creating and selling OCC at an alarming rate. It is imperative that governments reevaluate their approach to countering the proliferation of OCC.

Arms Control Cybersecurity

Conflict, Risk, and Tech

Jul 22, 2020

Troubled vision: Understanding recent Israeli–Iranian offensive cyber exchanges

By JD Work and Richard Harknett

Reported Iranian intrusions against Israeli critical infrastructure networks and alleged Israeli actions against Iranian proliferation-associated targets pose substantial new challenges to understanding ongoing competition and conflict in the Middle East.

Cybersecurity Iran
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