Inflection Points

Inflection Points

A weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe, Inflection Points focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them.

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Inflection Points

Apr 25, 2020

Here’s how the U.S. could lead energy rethink post-COVID-19

By Frederick Kempe

U.S. role as the world’s leading oil and gas producer doesn’t feel as empowering as it recently did, with oil prices heading into negative territory for the first time ever this week. Yet there is an opportunity in the oil industry’s unprecedented crisis – and in the further months of market volatility that will come with it. This period presents a chance for the United States to forge a better and more sustainable path to global energy leadership than can be found even within the vast riches of U.S. shale.

Energy Transitions Renewables & Advanced Energy

Inflection Points

Apr 18, 2020

Here’s how the U.S. can win the post-COVID19 race to growth

By Frederick Kempe

The post-COVID19 race will be an epic contest among the world’s most significant economies, with generational and geopolitical consequences. Being first out the gate will be significant, and that is likely to be China. Yet history has taught the United States that it’s victory will be longest lasting if it is achieved alongside partners and allies.

China Coronavirus

Inflection Points

Apr 5, 2020

Trump lacks options in oil price war; Kissinger warns of “world on fire”

By Frederick Kempe

President Trump doesn’t have good options. He lacks easy leverage over the players, domestic and international, and he’s got even less control over the COVID —19 economic hit. In the end, it is more likely that a U.S. government bailout will save the industry, rather than a global market intervention.

Coronavirus Energy Markets & Governance

Inflection Points

Mar 28, 2020

COVID-19’s next target: fragile states and emerging markets

By Frederick Kempe

Developed countries – even as they act to save themselves – must shift far greater public health and economic attention to fragile states and emerging markets, where the hit from the virus is likely to be far more devastating, destabilizing, and enduring.

Coronavirus Crisis Management

Inflection Points

Mar 21, 2020

How the U.S. can avoid COVID-19’s geopolitical perils

By Frederick Kempe

We’re only in the opening scenes of this epic COVID-19 drama, which will continue without intermission. The Chinese rebound could prove to be a welcome twist in the plot. Imagine the far-happier ending, however, if the United States and its global allies manage to join forces globally even as they isolate socially.

China Coronavirus

Inflection Points

Mar 14, 2020

Why Trump should trigger NATO’s Article 5 vs. COVID-19

By Frederick Kempe

If NATO could bend Article 5 to combat a non-state terrorist actor striking the United States, why not also to combat COVID-19. Given current transatlantic divisions, there is far greater need now than after 9/11 for a symbolic gesture of unity.

Coronavirus European Union

Inflection Points

Mar 7, 2020

Coronavirus is already changing the world

By Frederick Kempe

The first returns are in regarding how the coronavirus episode might change the world. No doubt the virus is a curse, but it also could be a blessing if politicians and voters heed its lessons. As Winston Churchill said on the cusp of World War II, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Coronavirus Crisis Management

Inflection Points

Feb 29, 2020

Coronavirus special edition: Europe’s historic test amid expanding, global ripples

By Frederick Kempe

If the EU and its member states respond smoothly and in a coordinated fashion, the coming days could reinforce the collective value of the European Union. Should the EU appear ineffective as the virus spreads, that will color European attitudes for decades to come.

Coronavirus Crisis Management

Inflection Points

Feb 22, 2020

Global investors underestimate downside economic risks

By Frederick Kempe

Global investors are being overly complacent about downside economic risks, aggravated by but not limited to the growing impact of coronavirus. They are underestimating the forces that are changing the very nature of the world economy – a growing degree of “deglobalization” in the face of US-Chinese decoupling. At the same time, they are overestimating the power of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the global economic party going.

China Economy & Business

Inflection Points

Feb 18, 2020

Munich special edition: Is it time to worry about Germany?

By Frederick Kempe

It’s easy to understand why Germans defend the status quo, which has served them well over the past few decades. What’s unclear is how Germany will react with so many certainties shaken: the shape of the EU, relations with the U.S., the stability of German politics, and the durability of economic growth.

European Union Germany
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