Inflection Points

Inflection Points

A weekly column by Atlantic Council President and CEO Frederick Kempe, Inflection Points focuses on the global challenges facing the United States and how to best address them.

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Inflection Points

Mar 21, 2020

How the U.S. can avoid COVID-19’s geopolitical perils

By Frederick Kempe

We’re only in the opening scenes of this epic COVID-19 drama, which will continue without intermission. The Chinese rebound could prove to be a welcome twist in the plot. Imagine the far-happier ending, however, if the United States and its global allies manage to join forces globally even as they isolate socially.

China Coronavirus

Inflection Points

Mar 14, 2020

Why Trump should trigger NATO’s Article 5 vs. COVID-19

By Frederick Kempe

If NATO could bend Article 5 to combat a non-state terrorist actor striking the United States, why not also to combat COVID-19. Given current transatlantic divisions, there is far greater need now than after 9/11 for a symbolic gesture of unity.

Coronavirus European Union

Inflection Points

Mar 7, 2020

Coronavirus is already changing the world

By Frederick Kempe

The first returns are in regarding how the coronavirus episode might change the world. No doubt the virus is a curse, but it also could be a blessing if politicians and voters heed its lessons. As Winston Churchill said on the cusp of World War II, “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Coronavirus Crisis Management

Inflection Points

Feb 29, 2020

Coronavirus special edition: Europe’s historic test amid expanding, global ripples

By Frederick Kempe

If the EU and its member states respond smoothly and in a coordinated fashion, the coming days could reinforce the collective value of the European Union. Should the EU appear ineffective as the virus spreads, that will color European attitudes for decades to come.

Coronavirus Crisis Management

Inflection Points

Feb 22, 2020

Global investors underestimate downside economic risks

By Frederick Kempe

Global investors are being overly complacent about downside economic risks, aggravated by but not limited to the growing impact of coronavirus. They are underestimating the forces that are changing the very nature of the world economy – a growing degree of “deglobalization” in the face of US-Chinese decoupling. At the same time, they are overestimating the power of monetary and fiscal stimulus to keep the global economic party going.

China Economy & Business

Inflection Points

Feb 18, 2020

Munich special edition: Is it time to worry about Germany?

By Frederick Kempe

It’s easy to understand why Germans defend the status quo, which has served them well over the past few decades. What’s unclear is how Germany will react with so many certainties shaken: the shape of the EU, relations with the U.S., the stability of German politics, and the durability of economic growth.

European Union Germany

Inflection Points

Feb 9, 2020

Trump and two “black swans”

By Frederick Kempe

Coronavirus and the shooting down of the Iranian passenger jet are “black swan” events that expose the flaws of authoritarian governments in dealing with unanticipated crises. They also provide President Trump unforeseen opportunities to advance the two most significant foreign policy issues of his administration – changing China’s unfair trading practices and pushing back against Iran’s malign behavior.

China Iran

Inflection Points

Feb 1, 2020

The growing, global impact of Coronavirus

By Frederick Kempe

It’s already clear that the coronavirus impact, though too early to fully measure, will be significant on Chinese and global supply chains, markets and economies; on the legitimacy and the trust enjoyed by the Chinese Communist Party with its own people; and on Asian regional politics and US-Chinese relations, where trust already was in such short supply.

China Coronavirus

Inflection Points

Jan 26, 2020

Davos dispatch: Has China won?

By Frederick Kempe

2020 could mark a significant year for the emerging, generational clash between democratic and authoritarian capitalism.

China

Inflection Points

Jan 19, 2020

From Versailles to Davos: Confronting historic perils

By Frederick Kempe

What world leaders coming to Davos know is that history’s course is up for grabs again. Major power competition is heating up, inflamed by a systemic contest between democratic and state capitalism. The world is awash with uncertainty about how new technologies and rising environmental threats could remake our world. The international order of rules and institutions that the U.S. and its partners constructed after World War II is faltering and ill-equipped to navigate these challenges.

International Norms International Organizations
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