It’s hard to overstate the United States’ historic investment in Germany’s success—and its impact on Europe’s future.
Americans alongside allies defeated Imperial Germany in World War I and Nazi Germany in World War II, only thereafter to help rebuild and democratize West Germany, or the Federal Republic, laying the groundwork for its peaceful reunification in 1990 as both a NATO and European Union member.
It’s only with that as context that one hears the weight of likely next German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s election-night mention of the need for “independence” from Washington, even before the final vote results were in. It’s worth reading his full quote.
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” said Merz, one of the most authentic Atlanticists I’ve known. “I never thought I would have to say something like this on a television program. But after Donald Trump’s statements last week at the latest, it is clear that Americans, at least this part of the Americans, this administration, are largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
It’s also with an understanding of Germany’s centrality to European history over the past two centuries—both its worst and best parts—that one can fully digest Merz’s warning the day after the election that it is “five minutes to midnight” in Europe.
With that, Merz underscored the immediacy of the economic, security, and geopolitical challenges facing Germany and Europe.
Merz may be the most pro-business chancellor Germans have elected since World War II, but his Christian Democrats face the country’s near-zero growth with just 28.6 percent of the vote, their second worst outcome since the war. Their likely coalition partners, the Social Democrats, at 16.4 percent, scored their worst result since 1887, even worse than March 1933, when Adolf Hitler came to power.
The real winners this week were the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, which doubled its vote to 20.8 percent, and the far-left Die Linke, with 8.8 percent. With a third of all the votes in the Bundestag resting with the far right and the far left, they have the power to block the sort of constitutional changes Merz would need to spur the growth and defense spending Germany can only achieve through lifting its debt brake.
Are things as bad in the transatlantic relationship as Merz suggests?
One hopes not, and US President Donald Trump can change rhetoric and policy on a pfennig. However, it would be short-sighted for European leaders not to grasp the urgent need for greater self-reliance, particularly as the United States today voted against a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia on the third anniversary of its war of aggression on Ukraine—going against all the European allies and siding with Russia and its friends.
Is the clock ticking down as fast as Merz says on European security and economic threats?
Merz is a keen enough observer to know the severity of the situation. He’s also a good enough politician to realize that he’ll only have the leverage to address it if voters recognize the gathering dangers.
Most importantly, Merz knows that if he and his prospective coalition partners don’t act decisively now, those far-right and far-left numbers will grow, and German history shows us where that leads.
What Merz has identified is the historic moment. The coming months will determine how he rises to it.
Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on X: @FredKempe.
This edition is part of Frederick Kempe’s Inflection Points newsletter, a column of dispatches from a world in transition. To receive this newsletter throughout the week, sign up here.
Further reading
Sun, Feb 23, 2025
Germany shifts rightward: Our experts answer the big questions about the country’s election
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Our experts explain what the outcome of Germany’s elections will mean for policymakers in Berlin, Brussels, and Washington.
Tue, Feb 4, 2025
The next German chancellor must lead from the front, not the middle, on European security
New Atlanticist By Rachel Rizzo, James Batchik
From support for Ukraine to defense spending, German leaders would be wise to take the phrase Führung aus der Mitte permanently out of their vocabulary.
Wed, Feb 19, 2025
Germany’s economy has gone from engine to anchor. Here’s what the next chancellor faces.
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Revitalizing growth in Germany’s economy, which appears increasingly mired in stagnation, will demand urgent action from the next chancellor.
Image: Friedrich Merz, CDU federal chairman and CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader in the Bundestag, speaks during a press conference after the CDU executive committee meeting.