With the conflict ignited by the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel still ablaze, it is difficult to predict what decisions the players will make tomorrow—let alone in a week or a month. That makes it challenging for other nations impacted by the conflict to craft their foreign policy. What we can know in these early days are the early warning signs that could indicate particular actions from the major players, or illuminate the thinking of parties to the conflict and external stakeholders.

Based on my experience serving in the White House and private sector, and my conversations with insiders in Washington and across the region in recent days, here are the issues worth watching as this conflict evolves and foreign policy decisions must be made.

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Image: UN workers walk as aid trucks arrive at a UN storage facility as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in the central Gaza Strip October 21, 2023. REUTERS/Mohammed Salem