LONDON—Ten years after the Brexit referendum that took the United Kingdom out of the European Union, the overwhelming impression of a visit to today’s London is of a country with a huge divide between its people and its politicians.
During my recent visit, Andy Burnham, the social media–friendly mayor of Manchester, won a by-election that brought him into Parliament and allowed him to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership and top office. Starmer has now decided to go peacefully by resigning, and it seems there will not be a contested leadership election. Burnham is expected to become prime minister in the phenomenally short time of three weeks, by mid-July. This leaves him minimal time for developing both a team and policies suited for managing Britain’s post-Brexit slump.
Yet, if the past two years show anything, it is that Labour is as likely to engage in internecine warfare now as the Conservatives before it, with Labour colleagues just as responsible for Starmer’s political demise as any Tory. But Burnham will need clear party support if he is to provide the stability needed to address the key concerns of the British public.
Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has had six prime ministers, including David Cameron, who resigned the afternoon following the vote. Five of these were during the Conservative reign of 2016 to 2024—a sign of the party’s inability to reconcile the complex reality of leaving the European Union with its simplistic Brexit fever dream. In response, the British public elected Starmer in 2024. But Labour’s huge majority in Parliament was based on the support of only 33.7 percent of the electorate, a quirk of the country’s first-past-the-post voting system. Public support for Starmer and Labour was never that high and declined throughout his tenure.
Just as the Tories failed to match the public’s expectations for Brexit, now Labour has also failed to demonstrate that it can effectively tackle the public’s continuing concerns—or even that it understands them. According to recent polls by YouGov, Britons are mostly concerned about the cost of living and the economy. Also high on the list are the state of the National Health Service and illegal immigration. Burnham won the Makerfield by-election convincingly, despite challenges from two right-wing protest parties. But his campaign was short on policy proposals, with few indications of how he would deal with the severe economic choices facing the country. Moreover, being a mayor in the United Kingdom is far different from being the prime minister, given that budgets and services are often centralized across the country.
For some in Labour, the answer to Britain’s economic malaise is to rejoin the European Union. There is now little doubt that Brexit imposed a significant economic cost, reducing the country’s potential gross domestic product by as much as 6 percent, according to Bank of England data. But even though 55 percent of Britons now look favorably on rejoining the European Union, accession will be a lengthy and tortuous project. Political leaders cannot tell voters that a serious improvement in the economy must wait for the conclusion of a five-to-ten-year accession process. Voters want leadership now that can put Britain on a more prosperous track.
Of course, voters don’t always accept that hard choices must be made. The downward spiral of Starmer’s approval ratings began when his government decided to means-test winter fuel payments early in its tenure. Even though this was reversed the following year, Starmer’s credibility and popularity continued to decline. More recently, Starmer’s cabinet has split over defense spending, with Defence Secretary John Healey resigning, along with Armed Forces Minister Al Carns. The National Health Service continues to face significant budgetary challenges, with a nationwide deficit of £780 million, while energy prices in the United Kingdom are among the highest in Europe (and significantly more than in the United States).