In her new article in the Institute for Security and Development Policy, published on July 2, Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, draws up four scenarios on the future of Nato.
Wieslander writes that discussions about how to organize European security – in light of the Russian threat and doubts regarding the US commitment to NATO – are occurring on two dimensions: “The first relates to the US security presence in Europe: Will the United States stay or leave? The second is about the nature of burden-shifting from the US to Europe: Will it be modest or brusque?”
Drawing on these dimensions, she explores the following futures:
Future #1: More Europe in NATO—the moderate version
“The Alliance will remain US-led, but European allies will shoulder greater responsibility and deliver up to two-thirds of NATO’s combined operational capacity for collective defense.”
“Military leadership roles and structure would be reorganized to reflect the greater share of burden and influence that the capabilities would generate.”
Future #2: More Europe in NATO—the brutal version
“This is the future where burden-shifting is the main trend, but with a real risk of becoming burden-dumping if not managed appropriately.”
“This brutal future is the most likely scenario in the coming years, as it aligns with the rapid burden-shifting pushed by the Trump administration under its vision of NATO 3.0.”
Future #3: NATO narrows to Europe and Canada
“In this future, the United States decides to leave NATO, formally or informally.”
Is a future in which the United States leaves NATO likely?
“None of the Trump administration’s current documents guiding US foreign and security policy or military deployment in Europe hint at the possibility of the United States withdrawing from NATO. Changing NATO, yes. Leaving NATO, no.”
Future #4: NATO becomes part of the European Union
“In this future, the European Union becomes the alliance around which the defense of Europe is organized and NATO is dismantled. Such a development would be triggered by an American withdrawal from NATO.”
“The EU would have to build a strategic culture of resolve that is not yet in its DNA.”
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Read the full article here to find out more. It is available in both English and Swedish.
Further reading
Mon, Jul 6, 2026
A stronger Europe in NATO—the way forward
In-Depth Research & Reports By
This report analyzes what a stronger Europe in NATO means in practice, how European allies can take greater responsibility without weakening the cohesion of the Alliance, and what role Sweden can play.
Tue, Jan 27, 2026
How the Nordic-Baltic states became Europe’s reliable security engine
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Eight Northern European states are acting together early and turning solidarity into capabilities and delivery.
Tue, May 5, 2026
‘Zeitenwende’ is anchoring Germany’s role as a Baltic Sea Power
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The Merz government has been keen to emphasize that Germany is a trustworthy and long-term security provider in the region.