Scowcroft Center Commentary, Analysis, & Reports

The Global Foresight 2024 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2023, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results. 

Welcome to 2034: What the world could look like in ten years, according to nearly 300 experts  

To survey the future, we polled global strategists and foresight practitioners on our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next decade. Check out their forecasts on everything from the likelihood of war over Taiwan to the future of AI.

Russia’s growing dark fleet: Risks for the global maritime order

By Elisabeth Braw

Russia's dark fleet poses a significant threat to maritime security, forming the basis of Moscow's grayzone aggression against Western institutions.

Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption tracker

Implementing reforms to increase the speed of defense innovation and capability development has been an increasing priority for policymakers in Congress and the Department of Defense (DoD) in the past year.  Following the publication of the Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption’s interim report and final report, Congress and the DoD took actions to ensure defense […]

To fend off Russia in the Black Sea, the US and NATO need to help boost Allies’ naval power

By Gavin Clough

The absence of a credible and sustained allied naval presence across the Black Sea opens the door for Russia to disrupt commercial shipping in international waters.

Overstretched and undersupplied: Can the US afford its global security blanket?

By Kathryn Levantovscaia

The hollowing out of the broader US manufacturing base has made defense companies dependent on supply chains originating in, of all places, China.

Six ways for the US to put democracy back on the global agenda in 2024

By Patrick Quirk

As 2024 begins, the Biden administration must take urgent steps to put its pro-democracy rhetoric into action in key theaters around the world.

Navigating Sweden’s NATO membership: Insights for political and operational adaptation

By Viltaute Zarembaite, Christopher Skaluba, Ann Marie Dailey

Sweden is on the cusp of joining Finland as NATO's newest members, bridging a crucial gap in the region's security architecture and creating new opportunities for closer security cooperation. Once Sweden is in NATO, the Baltic Sea will be a geographically coherent strategic space—or, in more casual parlance, a "NATO lake."

Expanding NATO’s competitive mindset: Deterring and defending across physical and virtual domains

By Delharty Manson

In October 2023, the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security’s Forward Defense program, in partnership with NATO ACT, convened current and former practitioners for a private workshop on expanding NATO’s approach to multi-domain operations (MDO), identifying key challenges and opportunities to operationalizing MDO across the Alliance. This memo summarizes the workshop’s key takeaways and conclusions.

Evolving cooperative security approaches for tomorrow’s realities

By John T. Watts

US security cooperation, which are military aid activities led or executed by the US Department of Defense, is immensely valuable if done right and can help the United States achieve its goal from the 2022 National Security Strategy (NSS) by building a strong coalition of allies to confront shared challenges.

The Atlantic Council’s greatest hits of 2023

By Frederick Kempe

Here's the best of our efforts to further our mission to shape the global future together with allies and partners in 2023.