Scowcroft Center Research & Reports

Three worlds in 2035: Imagining scenarios for how the world could be transformed over the next decade

2024 was marked by increased climate shocks and collaboration of autocratic adversaries. What will the world look like in the next decade? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting three different scenarios for the future.

Global Foresight 2025

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our team of next-generation scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2025 and beyond. And our foresight practitioners imagine three different scenarios for the next decade.

The Global Foresight 2025 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2025

By Emily Milliken, Imran Bayoumi, Ginger Matchett, Srujan Palkar, Sydney Sherry

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsized impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Toplines: The United States and its allies must be ready to deter a two-front war and nuclear attacks in East Asia

By Markus Garlauskas

The “toplines” from Markus Garlauskus’ report on two emerging and interrelated deterrence challenges in East Asia with grave risks to US national security.

From Russia’s shadow fleet to China’s maritime claims: The freedom of the seas is under threat

By Elisabeth Braw

This report analyzes the deterioration of the global maritime order, focusing on rule violations in areas including maritime border alteration, harassment of civilian vessels, and disturbance of navigational tools

The next decade of strategic competition: How the Pentagon can use special operations forces to better compete

By Clementine G. Starling-Daniels, Theresa Luetkefend

Clementine G. Starling and Theresa Luetkefend discuss how the Department of Defense and Joint force should more effectively leverage Special Operations forces in strategic competition.

‘First, we will defend the homeland’: The case for homeland missile defense

By Robert Soofer with contributions from Kari Anderson, James McCue, Tom Karako, Mark J. Massa, Alyxandra Marine, and Jonathan Rosenstein

A comprehensive analysis of U.S. homeland missile defense, addressing policies, security challenges, and strategies to counter threats from North Korea, China, and Russia.

It’s (still) more expensive to rotate military forces overseas than base them there

By John R. Deni

In his previous term, President Donald Trump ordered the US Army to withdraw one-third of its troops based in Europe. The alternative to soldiers based in Germany or Poland is rotating US-based units through Europe on nine-month deployments—and new Army data confirms this is far costlier and harder on soldier morale than forward stationing.

How a new global defense bank—the ‘Defense, Security, and Resilience Bank’—can solve US and allied funding problems

By Rob Murray

A perennial problem for NATO is getting member states to meet their financial commitments, which include the pledge to spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense. A bank specifically focused on funding defense projects could offer a way out of the political impasse—and keep NATO technologically up to speed.