The Big Story

The Global Foresight 2023 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2022, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

The top 23 risks and opportunities for 2023

The war in Ukraine changed the world in 2022. How will it continue reshaping global affairs in 2023 and what else looms on the horizon? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting the near future.

Global Foresight 2023

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts identify the top risks and opportunities for 2023. Our foresight team spots “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2023 and beyond. And we share findings from our survey of global strategists and foresight practitioners on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade.

The Freedom and Prosperity Indexes: How nations create prosperity that lasts

By Dan Negrea, Matthew Kroenig

The inaugural Freedom and Prosperity Indexes show that democracies do indeed deliver. It’s time to reset the terms of the debate by letting the data do the talking. And the indexes have a lot to tell us. They reveal the most effective ways for governments to invest in their most important resource: their people.

How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures.

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine is a world-historical event, marking the final act of the post-Cold War period and the start of a new era, yet unwritten. The spectrum of possible outcomes ranges from a volatile new cold or hot war involving the United States, Russia, and China; to a frozen conflict in Ukraine; to a post-Putin settlement in which Russia becomes part of a revised European security architecture.

What are the risks and benefits of US/NATO military options in Ukraine? Our strategic risk calculator has answers.

By Tyson Wetzel, Barry Pavel

A strategic risk calculator for policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic to assess the possible risks and benefits of boosting their military assistance to the Ukrainian government.

After the insurrection: How domestic extremists adapted and evolved after the January 6 US Capitol attack

By Jared Holt

This report by the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab) provides an overview and analysis of the shifts observed in domestic extremist movements since the 2021 Capitol attack.

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2022

By Peter Engelke

Because it receives little attention in the press, the snow leopard does not appear significant enough to warrant much scrutiny as a driver of change and shaper of the future. Yet just like the real cat in the wild, the figurative snow leopard is something that could sneak up and vividly remind us that it exists.

Global Foresight 2022

The inaugural edition of a new annual report from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, home for the last decade to one of the world’s premier strategic foresight shops.

The top twelve risks and opportunities for 2022

By Mathew Burrows, Robert A. Manning

With ongoing vaccination challenges in much of the world and the worrying emergence of the Omicron variant, along with supply bottlenecks plus rising inflation and debt, the pandemic continues to exert its relentless push and pull on a beleaguered world.