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February 8, 2018

HEADLINES
This week was a busy week, with global leaders convening in Davos for the World Economic Forum.
Some highlights: Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned isolationism and warned against populism, Prime Minister Modi and Canada's Justin Trudeau made their cases for free trade, while US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned that more protectionist policies should be expected. President Trump addressed Davos earlier today, declaring that the U.S. is "open for business". UK's PM Theresa May outlined a "manifesto for change" in her Davos speech. 
In other news...
On Monday, January 22, right after the government’s recovery from a weekend-long shutdown, President Trump imposed tariffs on solar panels and washing machines under Section 201 which will have great impact on domestic consumer prices while also posing a threat to the switch to solar energy in the US.
Global: Japan and 11 other countries will officially be moving forward with the restructuring of TPP, without the US. However, in an interview wit CNBC, President Trump said that he would potentially be open to joining the pact again. On another note, Canadian Foreign minister Chrystia Freeland and Mexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo met in Toronto on January 22nd while the NAFTA negotiating team continued the sixth round of discussions in Montreal. The trade minister will arrive in Montreal for their discussion on Monday. Also next week: President Trump's first State of The Union address. The next round of talks on revising the U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement will be held Jan. 31-Feb. 1 in Seoul.  

SPOTLIGHT
Newsletter Tile
As Brexit negotiations forge on ahead, the problem of the Irish border remains pertinent and unsolved. The UK exiting the EU would challenge the free movement of goods and people previously enshrined in bilateral agreements between the two countries.

Ireland depends heavily on the UK to serve as a land bridge to EU exports, while simultaneously acting as an vital export destination for Northern Ireland. Many producers have expanded their supply chain to span across the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. Governments and private firms will have to work hard to mitigate any negative effects Brexit will have on these relationships.

It is unclear what a final Brexit deal with look like, but the Irish border will remain a hot-button issue. The stakes are high for both countries. More details are available in our latest EconoGraphic here


TRADE
Speech: President Trump to Davos: ‘America Is Open for Business’The White House
Analysis: Trump, in Davos Speech, Sticks to Script as He Declares America Open for Business, The New York Times 
Interview: Read President Trump's Full Remarks on Trade Deals to CNBC, CNBC News
News: Trump Imposes Tariff on Solar Imports, Eric Wolff, Politico
Analysis: The Winners and Losers in Trump’s Trade Crackdown, Bloomberg
Opinion: Battered in 2017, Trade may Face Trump’s Full Wrath in 2018, Joshua P. Meltzer, Brookings
News: US says China WTO Membership was a Mistake, Shawn Donnan, Financial Times
News: No Trade War With China—Yet, Nathaniel Taplin, The Wall Street Journal
Analysis: NAFTA, China, and the WTO: End of the Beginning, or Beginning of the End?, Edward Alden, Council on Foreign Relations
Report: Deepening NAFTA and Signing New Trade Agreements: A US Trade Strategy to Boost the Economy and Reduce the Trade Deficit, Frank Lavin, Hanna Deringer, and Fredrik Erixon, European Center for International Political Economy
Report: The Nafta Withdrawal Tax, Farmer for Free Trade 
Analysis: Terminating NAFTA: The National and State-by-State on Jobs, Exports, and Output, Joseph Francois and Laura Baughman, Trade Partnership Worldwide
InterviewCecilia Malmstrom on on-going/future EU Trade Deals, Reuters Davos
News: Commission Reports on Progress in EU-Mexico Trade Negotiations, European Commission 
Analysis: Meet the New Leaders on Global Trade, Bloomberg
Opinion: Defense — and Offense — Win Trade Championships, Earl Anthony Wayne, The Hill
News: Trans-Pacific Trade Deal to Go Ahead Without US, Robin Harding and Mark Odell, Financial Times
News: India’s Modi Claims Economic Protectionism Is Hurting Global Trade, Anant Vijay Kala and Rajesh Roy, The Wall Street Journal
Report: //medium.com/@JapanEmbDC/japan-is-invested-in-america-49e8c0517c81">Japan is “Invested” in America, Embassy of Japan in the USA, Medium
News: Three Ways that Britain Can Unlock an EU Trade Deal, George Parker and Henry Mance, Financial Times


TWEET/FACTOID OF THE WEEK


Did you know...
that the number of humans living in absolute poverty is about 10% of what is was 200 years ago?
1820: 94.4%
1870: 89.6%
1929: 75.9%
1970: 60.1%
1990: 36.91%
2015: 9.6%
Curious? Read more here.


GLOBALIZATION
Report: World Economic Outlook Update, January 2018, International Monetary Fund
StatementJack Ma: "I think Globalization cannot be stopped.", World Economic Forum 
Analysis: There is Nothing Virtual About Bitcoin’s Energy Appetite, Nathaniel Popper, The New York Times
News: IMF Sees a Global Boom That’s Overly Dependent on Easy Money, Greg Ip, The Wall Street Journal
Analysis: Why Driverless Cars May Mean Jams Tomorrow, The Economist
Video: Agile Governance in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, World Economic Forum
Video: A New Growth Paradigm for Emerging Economies, World Economic Forum 
AnalysisSecuring the Digital Transition, Carl Bildt, Project Syndicate
Analysis: Chinese Tech Companies Plan to Steal American Cloud Firms’ Thunder, The Economist
News: The U.S. Drops Out of the Top 10 in Innovation Ranking, Michelle Jamrisko and Wei Lu, Bloomberg
Analysis: A New Financial Geopolitics?, Foreign Affairs
Opinion: Davos 2018: The Liberal International Order is Sick, Martin Wolf, Financial Times

WHAT WE ARE READING
Blog Entry: Deterring Russian Hacking, Daniel Fried, Brian O'Toole, New Atlanticist
Analysis: Three German Economic Challenges with European Effect, Christine Lagarde, IMF Blog
OpinionThe Odd Man Out at Davos?, Ashish Kumar Sen, New Atlanticist
Analysis: What Will the EU Look Like After Brexit?, Valentina Romei, Financial Times
Analysis: In Germany, Social Democrats Hold Merkel’s Future in Their Hands, Jörn Fleck, Atlantic Council
Opinion: Imagining a Post-Merkel Germany, Jochen Bittner, The New York Times
Report: Europe is Back: Economic, Financial, Social and Technological Trends in a Changing World, Europe Political Strategy Centre
Analysis: Europe’s Economy: Three Pathways to Rebuilding Trust and Sustaining Momentum, Jacques Bughin, Eric Labaye, Sven Smit, Eckart Windhagen, Jan Mischke, and Sarah Forman, McKinsey & Company

UPCOMING EVENTS
January 26: What’s Next for Trump’s Regulatory Agenda: A Conversation with OIRA Administrator Neomi Rao, Brookings 
January 29: Modernizing Trade Rules: The TPP and Beyond, Brookings 
January 30: Trust and Estate Update, European American Chamber of Commerce New York 
January 30: The Trump Doctrine at One Year, Cato Institute
January 30: European Economic Challenges in the Age of Trump, American Enterprise Institute
February 2: Can an Internationally Competitive Tax System Protect Its Tax BaseIIEL Georgetown 

Your Newsletter Team:
Marie Kasperek, Associate Director, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council
Alexatrini Tsiknia, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council 
Zachary Coles, Intern, Global Business & Economics, Atlantic Council

Please send us suggested news stories, opinion pieces, publications, and upcoming events that you would like us to highlight! Email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with your ideas and suggestions.

The views expressed in this newsletter and linked external articles and content do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its sponsors.

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