July 19, 2018

On July 18, the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative in the South Asia Center, Global Energy Center, and Global Business & Economics Program co-hosted a panel discussion on the likelihood and effect of renewed US sanctions on Iran. The event featured five panelists: Anna Borschevskaya, Ira Weiner Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; Amos J. Hochstein, senior vice president of marketing at Tellurian Inc.; Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy; Brian O’Toole, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Business & Economics Program; and Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International. Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative, moderated.

The event began with a review of the state of play, comparing the United States’ present position with the lead-up to Iran sanctions in 2012. This transitioned into a discussion on the efficacy of renewed sanctions, focusing on the question of compliance for both Iran and the importers of its oil. A key theme throughout the panel was the potential duration of a sanctions regime. This contrasted the market’s short-term ability to supplement Iranian oil with spare capacity against its long-term sustainability challenges given increasing demand. Lastly, the speakers discussed the roles of regional key players, such as OPEC member states, Russia, and China in upholding or undermining US sanctions.