Germany has this week blamed Russia for a failed drone attack on Leipzig Airport that took place in early August. German investigators concluded that the attack on the airport, which serves as a hub for Ukrainian and NATO military aircraft, was carried out by professionals working for the Russian state.
Berlin’s decision to publicly point the finger at Moscow reflects growing alarm in European capitals as the Kremlin escalates its campaign of so-called “grey zone” aggression against Europe in an apparent bid to deter further support for Ukraine. “We do not consider ourselves at war, but we are the daily target of hybrid warfare,” German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt commented.
The attempted airport bombing in Leipzig was one of multiple recent incidents that indicate an intensification in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to intimidate Europe. In Slovakia, authorities foiled an attempted arson attack against a Ukrainian drone manufacturer. Estonian investigators are probing possible Russian involvement in a fire at premises used by a company supplying unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia was likely behind a blaze at a Polish factory supplying weapons to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said this week.
Reports of suspected Russian cyberattacks are also on the rise. Two Polish heating and power plants have been targeted in the past year, along with key civilian infrastructure in Sweden and Denmark. In late August, A Kremlin-linked group claimed responsibility for an unprecedented cyberattack on multiple Norwegian state digital platforms, just days after Norway unveiled a major new aid package for Ukraine.
In recent months, Russian violations of NATO airspace have become increasingly common. Russian drones now routinely cross into Romania, while a Russian cruise missile struck Polish farmland in late July, landing around one hundred kilometers from the border with Ukraine.
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Russia’s increasingly aggressive actions are raising concerns over exactly how far Vladimir Putin is prepared to go as he seeks to coerce Europe into abandoning Ukraine. In late August, CIA Director John Ratcliffe took the highly unusual step of visiting Moscow personally. While the details of this trip remain subject to much debate, multiple reports indicate that Ratcliffe warned his Kremlin counterparts against attacking NATO.
For now, Russia’s escalation appears calibrated to remain below the threshold that could trigger a military response. Despite rising tensions, many European officials assess that Putin does not want to provoke a direct military confrontation with NATO. Instead, they expect the Kremlin to expand its grey zone activities while focusing on coercion, subversion, and sabotage. This campaign aims to send a clear signal that continued support for Ukraine is putting European security at risk.
Amid the fallout from the Leipzig Airport attack, a chorus of European leaders have declared that they will not allow themselves to be bullied by Moscow and will continue backing Ukraine. “Attempts to intimidate Europe will fail,” commented EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas this week.
Others have acknowledged that Europe needs to do more to counter the Kremlin’s intimidation tactics. In a recent guest essay for Britain’s The Economist magazine, Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski warned that Europe must overcome its fear of further Russian escalation and finally stand up to Putin.
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Russia’s current escalation against Europe is not a sign of strength. On the contrary, it reflects Putin’s mounting desperation as he seeks to rescue his faltering invasion amid deadlock in Ukraine and growing problems on the home front.
The Russian army has struggled to advance on the Ukrainian battlefield throughout the first eight months of 2026, gaining minimal additional territory despite suffering record losses. At the same time, the Russian economy is showing increasing signs of strain, while Ukraine’s strategic bombing campaign has brought the invasion home to Russia and sparked the country’s biggest fuel crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
With little prospect of a decisive breakthrough on the battlefield, Putin is now looking to weaken the Ukrainian war effort by cutting the country’s European aid lifeline. Moscow wants to scare European citizens and convince them that military assistance to Kyiv is bringing the war closer to their own homes. In order for this strategy to succeed, Putin does not need European governments to abandon Ukraine altogether. Any hesitation can reduce the amount of support Ukraine receives, leaving the country increasingly vulnerable.
Russia’s current escalation is likely to continue in the coming months, with the boundary between hybrid warfare and conventional warfare set to become increasingly blurred. Indeed, a growing number of European officials and commentators are now calling for the term “hybrid warfare” to be retired, with critics arguing that it serves to downplay the severity of the Russian threat.
A direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO cannot be ruled out but remains unlikely. Instead, Europe should prepare to face mounting grey zone aggression including air space incursions, attacks on infrastructure, and other acts of sabotage as Putin attempts to intimidate Europe and deprive Ukraine of vital support.
Maksym Beznosiuk is a strategic policy analyst whose work focuses on Russia, Ukraine, and international security. He is an associate fellow at GLOBSEC. William Dixon is a senior associate fellow of the Royal United Services Institute and an associate fellow at GLOBSEC. He specializes in cyber and international security issues.
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The Eurasia Center’s mission is to enhance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values, and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia, and Central Asia in the East.
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