With President Donald Trump back in office, Africa watchers and policymakers throughout Africa are eager to know how the new US administration will approach relations with the continent as his second term begins. Between the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) scheduled to expire and South Africa hosting the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit, 2025 will be a defining year for Africa and many are rightfully looking forward to a year in which trade and finance will be front and center in wider US-Africa relations. Yet, while those elements of the relationship will certainly come into focus, on the US political front, these issues may be relegated to at least the second half of the year. Instead, the issue area that will likely impact US-Africa relations the most in the coming months is immigration.
In his first days in office, Trump has made it clear that immigration is at the top of his agenda. Since taking office on Monday, Trump has already issued a series of executive actions restricting US immigration, including an executive order declaring a national emergency on the southern border. Furthermore, one of the first votes of the 119th Congress was on the passage of the Laken Riley Act, a key immigration enforcement bill backed widely by Republicans—and also supported by some Democrats after a bruising election cycle. The United States’ policy focus of early 2025 is clear—and this likely means that US-Africa relations will be no exception. If the Trump administration’s first days are any indication, African leaders shouldn’t be surprised if relations with the United States are guided by immigration issues rather than trade and investment in the immediate months to come.
Previously, African leaders and policymakers did not need to be too concerned about US domestic immigration enforcement when it came to their wider relations with Washington. While the past decades have seen rising numbers of Africans migrating to the United States and obtaining legal permanent resident status, most came via legal channels, and immigrants from Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies have achieved some of the highest median household incomes in the country. In the past several years, however, there has been a sharp increase in the number of African migrants arriving at the southern US border, having made it across the Atlantic one way or another, and then joining more traditional routes overland to the United States. Toward the end of Trump’s first term, articles abounded stating that African migrants had become the new face of the US border crisis.
Historically, the numbers of African migrants arriving at the US border have been so low that they were classified as “other”. But this is no longer the case. Recently, as Europe’s economic outlook falters and European Union member nations increasingly crack down on migrants and asylum seekers, African migration to the United States is surging. The New York Times reported that “the number of Africans apprehended at the southern border jumped to 58,462 in the fiscal year 2023 from 13,406 in 2022,” with Mauritania, Senegal, Angola, and Guinea the largest sources of migration from Africa to the United States. These, of course, are only the reported numbers, and illegal migration, by definition, is not fully accounted for. And while the number of African migrants entering the United States each year still pales in comparison to that of Latin American migrants, they are no longer insignificant numbers. As refugee, asylum, and immigration systems are being revised, and if 2025 brings the unprecedented level of attention and focus on deportations that the political climate is forecasting, then it’s almost inevitable that African migrants will be affected by whatever immigration policies the new administration implements.
Deportations to African countries are nothing new, as US Immigration and Customs Enforcement have routinely carried out removal flights to the continent. What would be different is the scale and the political landscape around them. There is a very good chance that significant numbers of African migrants will be returned to their countries of origin as part of a broader push against illegal immigration. In addition to migrants without status, should Temporary Protected Status (a humanitarian parole program) be rescinded, Africans in the United States under the program (which covers Cameroon, Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan) would lose their work permits and protection from deportation. Any US mass deportation scheme is therefore bound to include African nationals.
As African governments await sit-downs with their new US counterparts in the departments of Treasury, State, and Commerce (as well as the US trade representative) to discuss AGOA and the G20, they may find that the US officials most eager to meet with them initially are from Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security, and US Customs and Border Protection.
As for Trump, his past comments on African migrants and the prevailing belief that he will take a more transactional approach toward the continent could mean that African governments that express reluctance to accept back migrants will face hurdles in future initiatives with the United States. Indeed, the first Trump administration sanctioned Eritrea, Guinea, and Sierra Leone for refusing to accept migrants deported from the United States.
The G20 Summit and AGOA renewal are rightfully at the forefront of every Africa watcher’s attention for 2025. Both offer unique, timely, and much-needed opportunities to relaunch US-African relations and commercial ties. But for the United States, domestic politics is king, and notably, reauthorization of AGOA was not included in Congress’s continuing resolution last month, despite a concerted effort by African diplomats and industry allies. In today’s Washington, there is a lack of political will for such a key piece of legislation on trade and investment with Africa, but when it comes to immigration policy, political will is omnipresent.
For better or worse, the focus of US policy in the early days of Trump’s second term will be on immigration, and this focus will almost certainly extend to how the United States approaches African nations. With rising numbers of African migrants in the United States, it is inevitable that the US immigration debate will have a significant impact on wider US-Africa relations.
The United States and Africa will get to trade and finance, but only after seeing what US immigration policy has in store for the relationship first.
Alexander Tripp is the assistant director of the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center.
The Africa Center works to promote dynamic geopolitical partnerships with African states and to redirect US and European policy priorities toward strengthening security and bolstering economic growth and prosperity on the continent.
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