This article is part of a series published by the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center and the GeoStrategy Initiative of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security exploring the nexus between US security and economic interests across Africa. The previous edition can be read here.
For most outside observers, knowledge of Madagascar begins and ends with vanilla beans, lemurs, and the hit animated film franchise of the same name. Strategic analysis of the island nation has often been just as surface level.
When protests brought down President Andry Rajoelina in October 2025, for instance, some commentators were quick to compare Madagascar’s political transition to coups in the Sahel. But such comparisons miss the mark and should not discourage the United States from engaging with the country.
On the contrary, this moment of political uncertainty calls for stronger engagement. Not least because—unbeknownst to most Americans—Madagascar boasts more than cute lemurs. It is also home to significant deposits of critical minerals, including nickel, cobalt, monazite, ilmenite, and other rare earth elements. And as geopolitical competition intensifies across Africa, its mineral wealth, combined with its strategic position in the western Indian Ocean, deserves far greater attention in Washington.
An island of untapped wealth—and strategic significance
Madagascar is the world’s fourth-largest island and home to nearly thirty million people. Located off the southeastern coast of Africa, it sits astride maritime routes linking the continent to the Middle East and Asia. Since its independence in 1960, the country has experienced four coups and periodic political upheaval, yet it has maintained long-standing relationships with Western governments and international investors.
Central to those ties is Madagascar’s critical mineral wealth—nickel, cobalt, and graphite—on which modern industrial economies increasingly depend. Add to this the fact that many of the country’s commercially viable deposits remain undeveloped and, so far, outside the orbit of US strategic competitors, and Madagascar’s strategic relevance is impossible to ignore.
Russia has ramped up its outreach
But the strategic implications of Madagascar’s resource wealth are often overshadowed by concerns about political instability and external competition. Such concerns flared up again in Western capitals when the military ousted the Malagasy administration in October 2025—and then surged further when interim President Michael Randrianirina dissolved the government in March, dismissing the entire cabinet and his prime minister.
Since then, Madagascar’s authorities have sought to reassure international partners1First person interview by the author, November 2025 of their intention to restore constitutional order, uphold the rule of law, and remain open to foreign investment. Still, this kind of political fragility—though not as pronounced as in Sahelian countries battling separatist groups and violent extremism—comes at a price. In Madagascar’s case, it has created openings for outside powers.
In July 2025, for instance, the Malagasy Civil Aviation Authority came under scrutiny for helping Iranians evade sanctions in connection with the purchase of Boeing aircraft. More alarming still, Russia has stepped up its engagement in troubling ways, including hosting Randrianirina in Moscow in February and providing weapons and training to his military. And while Afrobarometer data shows that the Malagasy public is not necessarily aligned with Moscow, recent flirtations with Russia by senior officials are raising questions about the country’s strategic direction.
Major mining concessions have not yet come into play. But the United States must keep a watchful eye on whether Malagasy assets fall under the influence of Russia or other adversaries, as such a shift could quietly reshape Madagascar’s alignment within global supply chains.
The US needs to stay in the game
So far, the United States and its partners have taken a measured approach. Rather than distancing themselves from Madagascar—as has occurred following coups in several Sahelian countries—Western governments have largely kept diplomatic channels open and continued deepening engagement.
The US administration’s approach of engaging African governments with which it has disagreements—as in the case of Mali—reflects a recognition that disengagement can inadvertently push fragile states toward adversaries—an outcome Washington is keen to avoid, particularly where critical minerals are at stake.
For the United States, deeper engagement with Madagascar offers a pragmatic path forward. Continued cooperation, particularly in defense and security, can serve as a hedge against competing powers seeking to expand their footprint and help create the conditions for responsible resource development.
Importantly, such engagement does not require major new commitments. Many of the necessary tools already exist within current US frameworks. Maritime domain awareness initiatives, key leader engagements, and targeted military information support activities could strengthen institutional relationships and improve situational awareness in the western Indian Ocean. A National Guard State Partnership Program, for instance, could help provide a steady, predictable cadence of engagement with US forces. Similarly, sustained defense cooperation could help narrow a persistent gap between regime-level priorities and the country’s broader need for institutional professionalism, economic stability, and resilience against external influence.
By supporting training, dialogue, and institutional capacity-building, the United States could also contribute to a more stable environment for both communities and investors in Madagascar—especially as local security dynamics can directly affect the viability of mining operations and public perceptions of foreign investment. In several cases, heavy-handed responses by local security forces to community protests near mining sites have exacerbated tensions, undermining both stability and economic development.
From afterthought to strategic priority
At a moment of intensifying geopolitical competition, modest US defense engagement in Madagascar is not optional—it is a strategic necessity. The right tools, applied consistently, can shape partner behavior, deny adversaries access, and reinforce a Western-aligned security architecture before competitors fill the vacuum.
With political instability set to remain a recurring feature of Madagascar’s political landscape, the United States cannot afford to treat democratic governance as a threshold condition for deeper engagement. Geopolitical competition, particularly over critical minerals, demands a more flexible approach. Given its resource wealth and maritime geography, the island nation must become a higher priority for US defense planners and economic policymakers alike.
Treating Madagascar as a curiosity—colorful, remote, and tangential to US interests—would risk overlooking an emerging arena of great power competition and ceding ground in critical mineral supply chains.
Maureen Farrell is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and vice president for global partnerships at Valar, a Nairobi-based strategic advisory and risk firm. She previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for African affairs and director for African affairs at the US National Security Council. Note: Valar has been contracted to provide professional services for a planned mining project in Madagascar.
Rose Lopez Keravuori is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center, an associate director at Strategia Worldwide, and chair of the board of advisors of GCR Group. She previously served as the director of intelligence at the US Africa Command.
The Africa Center works to promote dynamic geopolitical partnerships with African states and to redirect US and European policy priorities toward strengthening security and bolstering economic growth and prosperity on the continent.
The GeoStrategy Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, leverages strategy development and long-range foresight to serve as the preeminent thought-leader and convener for policy-relevant analysis and solutions to understand a complex and unpredictable world. Through its work, the initiative strives to revitalize, adapt, and defend a rules-based international system in order to foster peace, prosperity, and freedom for decades to come.
Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Madagascar's President Michael Randrianirina meet at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow, Russia, on February 19, 2026. Source: REUTERS/Alexander Zemlianichenko.