The GeoStrategy Initiative, housed within the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, serves to directly advance the Scowcroft Center’s core mission by developing sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and its allies and partners. Its competencies in long-range foresight and strategy development are vital assets to government and business leaders as they navigate a complex and unpredictable world. Through its work, the initiative strives to revitalize, adapt, and defend a rules-based international system in order to foster peace, prosperity, and freedom for decades to come.

The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

Practice areas

Strategy

Flyer for So what's the strategy? with Matthew Kroenig

Foresight

The new decade is in rapid flux and is characterized by geopolitical turbulence, economic complexity, technological disruption, demographic shifts and social interconnectedness. In this changing environment, we focus on identifying the key trends and risks which will fundamentally shape the future of humanity and global affairs. Our work encompasses a wide range of issues, from demography and urbanization to migration, power transitions and global governance, but is always driven by the principle that foresight is a key mindset for decision-making.

Technology and innovation

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is already underway. Technological development will fundamentally alter the global geopolitical landscape by changing governance structures, challenging human ingenuity and demanding innovative policy responses. Our team analyzes the political, socioeconomic, ecological, and security implications of emerging technologies, maps the evolution of innovation ecosystems and distills blueprints for entrepreneurship, in the Unites States and globally.

Geopolitics

The global power shift towards Asia, the United States’ relative decline and the emergence of transnational threats such as climate change are pulling at the threads of the post-World War II international system. Our team’s research discerns the outline of the dawning multipolar order by exploring power transitions, geopolitical shifts, and civil society movements. At the same time, we seek to challenge the assumptions which have been underpinning US foreign policy for the last 70 years and adapt them for current times.

Non-traditional security challenges

In the 21st century, the definition of security and its global architecture are changing under the pressure of transnational, non-traditional threats such as migration, climate change and inequality, in an unresponsive global governance system. GSI is reframing security policy paradigms by bringing into the fold cutting-edge issues such as environmental security, peacebuilding, resilience and illicit trade, and providing policy solutions for the international community, states and citizens.

Team

Experts

The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world.

Content

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

Global Foresight 2025

In this year’s Global Foresight edition, our experts share findings from our survey of global strategists on how human affairs could unfold over the next decade. Our team of next-generation scholars spot “snow leopards” that could have major unexpected impacts in 2025 and beyond. And our foresight practitioners imagine three different scenarios for the next decade.

Civil Society Climate Change & Climate Action

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

The Global Foresight 2025 survey: Full results

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Africa China

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

Six ‘snow leopards’ to watch for in 2025

By Emily Milliken, Imran Bayoumi, Ginger Matchett, Srujan Palkar, Sydney Sherry

Atlantic Council foresight experts spot the underappreciated phenomena that could have outsized impact on the world, driving global change and shaping the future.

Civil Society Climate Change & Climate Action

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

Welcome to 2035: What the world could look like in ten years, according to more than 350 experts

In the fall of 2024 after the outcome of the US presidential election, the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security surveyed the future, asking leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer our most burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Here are the full results.

Africa China

Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series

Feb 12, 2025

Three worlds in 2035: Imagining scenarios for how the world could be transformed over the next decade

2024 was marked by increased climate shocks and collaboration of autocratic adversaries. What will the world look like in the next decade? The Atlantic Council’s top experts brought their globe-spanning expertise to the task of forecasting three different scenarios for the future.

Africa China

In the News

Jan 22, 2025

Michta in 19FortyFive on why abandoning Europe would be a strategic mistake

On January 10, Andrew Michta, senior fellow in the GeoStrategy Initiative, was published in 19FortyFive on why abandoning Europe would be a strategic mistake for the United States. He argues that US geostrategic and national security interests are entangled with that of Europe’s and to allow allies in Europe to be “pulled into China’s orbit” […]

Europe & Eurasia National Security

New Atlanticist

Jan 10, 2025

How Trump can redefine the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation

By Christian Bjørn Følsgaard

The Biden administration began the platform for more than three dozen costal Atlantic countries to convene, but it can find new life under Trump.

Africa Americas

In the News

Jan 6, 2025

Warrick quoted in The Washington Post on the incoming presidential administration’s visa debate

On December 28, Thomas S. Warrick, director of the Future of DHS project at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, was quoted in The Washington Post on the discussion within the incoming Trump administration on H-1B visas, which allow highly-skilled immigrants to […]

Economy & Business Migration

In the News

Jan 3, 2025

Michta in 19FortyFive and RealClearDefense on connecting NATO funding and capabilities

On December 23, Andrew Michta, director and senior fellow of the GeoStrategy Initiative, published an article in 19FortyFive on connecting NATO funding and capabilities. He underlines that, while many NATO allies have increased their defense spending since 2014, the geopolitical threats facing the Alliance mean greater funding and forces are necessary. The piece was featured […]

Conflict Europe & Eurasia

In the News

Jan 3, 2025

Michta in 19FortyFive, RealClearDefense, and RealClearWorld on Russia’s imperial mindset

On January 1, Andrew Michta, director and senior fellow of the GeoStrategy Initiative, released a piece in 19FortyFive on how Russia’s imperial mindset led to its invasion of Ukraine. He argues that policymakers must recognize Russia as an empire to understand Moscow’s larger ambitions and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to the war in Ukraine […]

Conflict Europe & Eurasia