The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East has followed closely the evolving politics of Tunisia’s transition over the past three and a half years. Asked about this weekend’s election, our experts had a range of reactions. For our most recent news and analysis, please visit our Tunisia in Focus page.
Karim Mezran , Senior Fellow North Africa specialist
Tunisians should be proud of their progress in establishing of a functioning, pluralistic, and inclusive political system. The orderly conduct of free and fair elections both at the legislative level in October and at the presidential level with the completion of the first round yesterday are fundamental steps toward consolidating democracy. While the runoff could hold some surprises, polls suggest that Nidaa Tounes’ Beji Caid Essebsi will win against his main contender Moncef Marzouki. The results of this competition will determine the direction in which the Tunisian electorate will want its political system to take. That is, moving toward a modern, secular state strongly rooted in the nation’s Arab and Muslim identity and values.
Both the legislative and the presidential election results should be read within this framework. The eventual victory of Essebsi, by strengthening Nidaa’s position, would make the party more secure in its dealings with the other major force, the Islamist Ennahda party, and would facilitate negotiations for the formation of a coalition government between these two main forces. This cooperation would assure a much-needed period of political stability and good governance to the country.
Duncan Pickard , Nonresident Fellow North Africa specialist
The rules governing the Tunisian election are well established to guarantee a legitimate and credible presidential election. Laws and institutions are in place, and have been tested in two parliamentary elections, to prevent the kinds of tricks that the Ben Ali regime used to undercut the political process. With more than 5 million Tunisians on the voter register (the same that was used in the parliamentary elections), the reported turnout of more than 60 percent is impressive. The elections commission did well in enforcing rules that allowed presidential candidates to have equal media coverage, and level the playing field with regard to public funding.
The preliminary first round results of the presidential election are expected to be released Tuesday. If none of the twenty-seven candidates receive more than fifty percent of the vote, a runoff election will be held between the top two candidates within two weeks of the announcement of the final results. The open campaign period is particularly important because, despite some expectations, no “consensus candidate” emerged from the political parties. Some Tunisian politicians were arguing that the major parties—including Ennahdha, which does not have its own candidate in the race, should endorse one candidate for the sake of stability. Others argued that this would undercut popular choice. The open field makes it virtually certain that no candidate will win more than fifty percent of the vote in the first round.
Bassem Bouguerra , Nonresident Fellow Civil society, Security Sector Reform Expert
The most noticeable and regrettable absent element in in the presidential elections was the youth. Young voter turnout in the presidential elections was significantly less than in the parliamentary elections. According to a SIGMA Conceil, a Tunisian survey company, young voters voted mainly for the candidates who are expected to place third and fourth. Their study showed a clear correlation between age and vote for each candidate especially for the 88-year-old candidate Beji Caid Sebsi who enjoyed 62 percent of senior citizens’ votes and only 34 percent from young voters, ages 18 to 29.
The Tunisian Defense Minister Gazi Jribi told the press that the security institution learned from its mistakes during the parliamentary elections and took new cautious measures. These measures caused the late delivery of equipment to polling stations. It is also worth noting that polling stations in high-risk areas were scheduled to close early as a preventative measure.
IWatch, a Tunisian elections watchdog organization, stated in a press conference on November 23 that the military was present at 97 percent of the polling stations. Last week, the defense ministry announced the establishment of an interministerial National Intelligence Agency, tasked with gathering information, analyzing it, and providing tactical responses to security threats. Virtually every political party noted the establishment of this agency in their electoral campaign. However, none of the presidential candidates talked about security sector reform and the establishment of a democratic and accountable security institution.
Lara Talverdian , Assistant Director for Research Tunisia researcher
The international community has followed developments in Tunisia with great optimism. By the end of this year, with the presidential run-off concluded, Tunisians will have a fully elected government, and the democratic experiment will continue to be tested. Echoes of the political divisions that nearly derailed the transition last year reverberated throughout the campaign season, with frontrunner Essebsi positioning himself and his party, Nidaa Tounes, as an alternative to Islamism, and Marzouki, who came second, warning against a return to rule by the old elite.
Questions abound about the parliamentary coalitions and the makeup of the government. The international community should expect some political jockeying and uncertainty—all an inevitable, natural part of the political process that Tunisians must own. In light of the country’s promising yet fragile peace in a region gripped by volatile polarization, the country’s partners should commit to sustained diplomatic engagement, working with all Tunisian stakeholders—from the winners to the opposition to civil society—to support their national dialogue and a culture of negotiation and compromise in governance.
It is also a tremendously positive step that USAID recently reopened its mission in Tunisia after an absence of more than twenty years. With the region experiencing great tumult, it is in everyone’s interest to ramp up assistance to tackle Tunisia’s underlying economic and development challenges to maximize the country’s chances of becoming a stable, prosperous partner.
Image: Election workers at a counting centre in Tunis, November 24, 2014. Tunisians voted on Sunday to pick their first directly elected president, with the two major parties expecting a run-off as the final step in the North African state's transition to full democracy following a 2011 revolution. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
Tunisia had a momentous weekend, holding its first free and fair election for its head of state in its modern history. Sunday’s vote brings the country one step closer to consolidating its long-in-the-making democracy. While the elections commission does not plan to release preliminary results until tomorrow, most analysts believe that the twenty-plus candidate list virtually guarantees a runoff election in December. The vote took place peacefully, with an estimated turnout of more than 60 percent, though a notable absence of young voters. Reports from elections observers are expected to trickle in over the next few days, providing a clearer picture of the atmosphere, but so far, no major complaints have surfaced.