Veteran German diplomat Martin Kobler will replace UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon and take over mediating stalled Libyan peace talks in the coming days, the United Nations said on Wednesday. Leon is set to head a United Arab Emirates (UAE) diplomatic academy. Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported that the Spanish diplomat was first offered the post in June, commenting that this called into question his impartiality as the UN’s chief peacemaker. The UAE backs the internationally recognized government in Libya’s east. Leon denied any conflict of interest and is due to give his final briefing to the Security Council on Thursday. [Reuters, 11/4/2015]
EGYPT | LIBYA & THE MAGHREB | SYRIA & ITS NEIGHBORS | YEMEN & THE GULF | ECONOMICS
Egypt, Russia dismiss UK, US suggestion that bomb caused plane crash
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Wednesday there was a “significant possibility” the Russian jetliner that crashed in the Egyptian desert may have been brought down by a bomb, while British Prime Minister David Cameron said, “We cannot be certain that the Russian airliner was brought down by a terrorist bomb, but it looks increasingly likely that that was the case.” A US official briefed on the matter also said that Intercepted communications played a role in the tentative conclusion that the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) Egypt affiliate, Sinai State, planted an explosive device on the plane. Russia and Egypt dismissed the suggestion, with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev saying Thursday that it was too early to draw any conclusions about the causes of the crash, but ordered additional security measures. Alexander Neradko, head of Russian aviation agency Rosaviatsia, said he team investigating the crash will examine whether there was any explosive material onboard the plane. Egypt’s Civil Aviation Minister said investigators have found no evidence so far that an explosion brought down the plane, while Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said he was “somewhat surprised” by Cameron’s remarks. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Cameron agreed in a phone call Thursday on the need for “the tightest possible security” at the Sinai resort airport, London said. Meanwhile, the Sinai State dismissed in an audio message on Wednesday doubts that it had downed the plane, and said it would tell the world how it did so in its own time. As the investigation continues, all flights carrying British and Irish passengers home from Egypt were suspended on Wednesday, affecting around 20,000 British travellers. Egypt said on Thursday Britain’s decision to suspend flights was made without consulting Egyptian authorities, while Konstantin Kosachev, a senior member of Russia’s upper house of parliament, said Britain’s decision was motivated by London’s opposition to Russia’s actions in Syria. The White House Wednesday said it has no plans to update its flight advisory on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. No US airlines regularly operate out of Sinai and the Federal Aviation Administration has had a flight advisory for the area since March, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said. Follow The Guardian’s live on the story updates here. [AP, CNN, AFP, Reuters, Aswat Masriya, The Guardian, 11/5/2015]
Almost 3,000 candidates in second phase of parliamentary elections
The High Elections Committee (HEC) said in a press conference Thursday that 2,847 candidates will compete over 222 individual seats in the second phase of parliamentary elections scheduled for November 21-23. According to HEC spokesperson Omar Marwan, 28,204,225 voters are registered and nearly 15,000 judges will supervise over 12,000 local polling stations. The HEC will announce the final list of individual candidates on November 12 after all appeals are reviewed by the court. As campaigning begins, the Ministry of Religious Endowment renewed its warning against the use of worship places to campaign for elections, saying it would immediately revoke any preacher’s license if they use mosques to discuss parliamentary elections. Ayman Okeil, Director of the Maat Foundation and coordinator of the local-international joint observatory mission, said violations have already been documented as most candidates disregarded the dates set to start campaigning. Finally, the For the Love of Egypt (FLE), an alliance supportive of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, which won all sixty seats allocated to electoral lists in the first phase, said it will seek alliances with fellow member parties and independents to secure a parliamentary majority. [DNE, 11/5/2015]
Egypt court postpones Mubarak’s final trial over 2011 killing of protesters
Egypt’s Cassation Court on Thursday postponed to January 21 the final trial of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak over the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising that ended his 30-year rule. The court is to look into a second appeal on the verdict, in which charges against Mubarak were dismissed in November 2014 due to a lack of evidence. The original session was to be held at the Supreme Court House and not at the Police Academy, according to Cassation Court protocols, and is the highest and last judicial step possible in the case. The upcoming court decision cannot be reversed and the defendant must be present in person. The case was postponed due to Mubarak’s absence, which Cairo security authorities apologized for in a letter sent to the court, stating that Mubarak is still recovering from a thigh fracture and needs ongoing medical attention for kidney and blood problems. [DNE, AMAY, Reuters, 10/5/2015]
For more in-depth Egypt news, please visit EgyptSource
Forces holding Libya oil fields threaten to cut off exports
On Wednesday, the forces that control most of Libya’s oil fields threatened to cut off exports if foreign companies do not start wiring payments to the internationally recognized government in the country’s east. Foreign companies have thus far paid the Central Bank in Tripoli, which is controlled by militias who back the rival western government. The internationally recognized government recently set up its own Central Bank and National Oil Company. Ali al-Hassi, spokesman for the Oil Fields Guard, said that foreign companies must transfer funds to the new authorities. [AP, 11/4/2015]
NATO ready to assist Libya, but not militarily
NATO is ready to help the Libyan government, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in response to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s call to “finish the job” in Libya. Stoltenberg said that NATO is ready to support the reconstruction of armed forces, but he made clear that this would not involve major military operations. In an interview on the eve of a visit to London, Sisi said that NATO countries that had participated in the operation to oust Qaddafi should step up their support to Libya today. [ANSAmed, 11/4/2015]
Tunisian lawmakers suspend membership in ruling party, threatening split
Thirty lawmakers from Tunisia’s ruling Nidaa Tounes party suspended their membership on Wednesday over what they called attempts by President Beji Caid Essebsi’s son to control the party over the authority of the executive committee. It is a further sign of infighting between two camps within Nidaa Tounes party, which is at risk of splitting up and losing its lead position in the parliament to Islamist party rival Ennahda. Insiders say Nidaa Tounes is now divided into two wings, one led by the Tunisian president’s son Hafedh Caid Essebsi and the other by Mohsen Marzouk, a former leftist activist and the party’s secretary general. The members have said they will resign officially if there is no meeting of the executive committee within the week. [Reuters, AFP, TAP, Tunisia Live, 11/4/2015]
Russia sent missile systems to Syria, personnel force grows to 4,000
Russia sent anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria to back up its air campaign, commander of the Air Force Viktor Bondarev said in an interview. “We sent not just fighter planes, strike aircraft, and helicopters but also anti-aircraft rocket systems,” Bondarev said. He added that Russia made the decision to bring missile systems to Syria because “we took into account every possible threat … There could be various force majeure situations. Let’s imagine a military plane is hijacked and taken to a neighboring country and air strikes are aimed at us. And we have to be ready for this.” This news comes as Moscow’s military force in Syria has grown to about 4,000 personnel. [AFP, Reuters, 11/5/2015]
Pentagon welcomes advance by ISIS-fighting allies in Syria
A coalition including Syrian Arab groups regained territory in northeastern Syria from Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) militants, a US military spokesman said, calling it an encouraging success. The fighters, who are from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its Syrian Arab Coalition subgroup, regained 87 square miles near the town of al-Hawl, US military spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said. The group “conducted an attack … driving ISIL back,” Warren said. “This is not a large tactical action … [but] we are encouraged by what we saw.” The spokesman said the operation had pitted more than a thousand friendly forces against several hundred enemies in the vicinity after heavy US air strikes had cleared the way. [AFP, 11/5/52015]
Rebels seize military base in western Hama
Armed opposition factions have overrun a military base in the western countryside of Hama province after heavy clashes with Syrian regime troops. Rebel fighters seized Tal Othman base and the nearby village of Janabra, activist Mustafa Abu Arab said. The strategic hill was the Assad regime’s first line of defense in securing loyalist villages in the Ghab Plain. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights reported mid-morning Thursday that the Islamist Jund al-Aqsa group and other rebel factions had taken “full control of large parts of Morek,” a town seized by regime forces in October 2014 after eight months of heavy clashes. The monitoring group also reported the “death and injury of dozens of regime forces members” and said it had received “confirmed information of human losses in the ranks of Jund al-Aqsa.” [NOW, Syrian Observer, 11/5/2015]
Water crisis leaves Damascus residents thirsty
Areas of Damascus and its countryside are facing of a shortage of potable water after the city’s network was destroyed during fighting between regime forces and Syrian opposition factions as they battled for control of the Barada River. Different regions in Damascus are experiencing shortages of drinking water, except for al-Maliki and some pro-regime neighborhoods, such as Mezzeh 86, which relies on water from wells that are decades old. The western and eastern countryside of the capital has faced water shortages and pollution after an explosion rocked the Barada water network between the villages of Ayn al-Fijeh and Deir Qanoun. Activists reported that the water pollution has resulted in high rates of jaundice and cholera in the villages and cities of the western countryside. Doctors and field hospitals struggle to treat the ill due to shortages of vaccines and medication. [Syrian Observer, 11/5/2015]
Kurdish rebels end unilateral ceasefire declaration
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebels fighting Turkey for autonomy ended a temporary unilateral ceasefire they had declared a month ago in their bid to reduce tensions ahead of Turkey’s November 1 election. A statement from a Kurdish umbrella organization said Thursday that the rebels had ended the ceasefire, citing the government’s “war policy” and “ongoing attacks.” Sixteen people were killed in clashes with the military in southeastern Turkey on Thursday, lifting this week’s death toll to almost forty in the mainly Kurdish area. One police officer was killed on Thursday during an operation against outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in the Silvan district of southeastern Diyarbakır province, where a curfew had been declared. [AP, 11/5/2015]
Turkey agrees access to Cyprus army zone graves in search for missing
Turkey has agreed to allow access to graves in military zones in war-split Cyprus in a major breakthrough to a decades-old search for persons missing in past conflict, a team working under UN auspices said on Thursday. Turkey formally agreed to let exhumation teams inspect thirty known suspected burial sites in closed military areas in northern Cyprus, the Committee For Missing Persons (CMP) said in a statement released through the UN peacekeeping mission in Nicosia. Access would be given over a three-year period. More than 2,000 Greek and Turkish Cypriots disappeared in a 1974 war and intercommunal violence on the island over the decade prior to that. [AP, Reuters, 11/5/2015]
Former Iraqi Environment Minister jailed for corruption
Former Iraqi Environment Minister Sargon Lazar Slewa was sentenced to two years in prison for corruption and ordered to pay some $280,000 to the state, the judiciary said Thursday. Slewa, a Christian who served in former premier Nuri al-Maliki’s government, was tried on charges “related to corruption,” a judicial statement said. Widespread public anger over corruption and poor services led to weeks of protests earlier this year, pushing Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announce a series of reforms aimed at streamlining the government and combating graft. While officials such as Slewa are periodically punished for graft, more powerful politicians who have allegedly engaged in far greater corruption remain at large. [AFP, 11/5/2015]
For more in-depth Syria news and analysis, please visit SyriaSource.
Saudi and Yemeni UN ambassadors optimistic for Yemen peace talks
The Saudi and Yemeni ambassadors to the United Nations said Wednesday that they are optimistic over peace talks between the Yemeni government and Shia Houthi rebels scheduled for mid-November after weeks of preparations. Saudi Ambassador Abdallah al-Mouallimi and Yemen’s Ambassador Khalid Alyemany, after meeting members of the Yemeni community, said that the talks will focus on implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2216 that requires the rebels to withdraw from all areas they have seized and lay down arms captured in months of fighting. Alyemany said the agenda for the talks, likely to be held in Geneva, should be completed by the end of this week. At UN-brokered peace talks in Geneva on June 19, the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels failed to agree on even a temporary ceasefire. However, Alyemany is more hopeful about the success of upcoming peace talks. “We will be very flexible in the withdrawal process.” [NYT, 11/4/2015]
Yemeni government returns to Riyadh to find solution to Aden security situation
In an interview on Wednesday, Vice President and Yemeni Prime Minister Khaled Bahah said that Aden is not a suitable headquarters for the Yemeni government, as the cabinet has now returned to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Prime Minister Bahah added that the increased presence of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) requires further critical analysis of how to best resolve the security situation in Aden and elsewhere. He also said that the Yemeni government was concerned that al-Qaeda would make further inroads in Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt, expecting a “big confrontation” between the government and these extremist groups soon. However, Prime Minister Bahah added that government’s one-month stay in Aden had seen good results, despite the city’s failing infrastructure and concerning security situation. [Al Masdar (Arabic), 11/5/2015]
UN warns of flooding from Cyclone Chapala
While the United Nations is reporting that Cyclone Chapala is expected to weaken significantly over the next twelve hours, the immediate concern remains the welfare of an estimated 1 million people at risk from expected flooding in the two governorates of Shabwah and Hadramawt, where the storm’s impact is expected to be most severe. The Shabwah and Hadramawt governorates have a combined population of about 1.9 million people, 76 percent of whom are already in need of humanitarian assistance. Three deaths and thirty-four injuries have been reported so far. Since a conflict broke out between Houthi rebels and pro-government forces, backed by Saudi airstrikes, it is estimated that 21.1 million people, 80 percent of Yemen’s population, require some form of humanitarian protection or assistance. [UN News Centre, 11/5/2015]
Qatar seeks to deepen US ties
Qatar is hoping big investment and trade deals with the United States will help restore its position as a Middle East power broker after charges of World Cup graft, labor abuse, and links to militants damaged its standing. The country also wants to reverse what it sees as waning US interest in Gulf Arab states and ensure US rapprochement with Iran does not shift it from the center of Middle East politics. Despite Qatari concerns, Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken said the US partnership with Qatar was “absolutely essential and fundamental” to the US strategy in the region. [NYT, 11/4/2015]
Bahrain jails five for reported Iran-linked militancy
Five Bahrainis were convicted of conspiring with Iran to carry out attacks inside Bahrain, sentenced to life imprisonment, and stripped of their citizenship, said Bahrain’s Public Prosecutor. Bahrain accused Iran of trying to foment unrest among its majority Shia population, a claim that Iran denies. On Wednesday, the Interior Ministry said it had arrested forty-seven members of a group it said had communicated with members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with the aim of carrying out attacks on banks and public buildings. Last month, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Iran a day after the Gulf Arab state said its security forces had discovered a large bomb-making factory and had arrested a number of suspects linked to the Revolutionary Guard. [Reuters, 11/5/2015]
Amnesty says Syrian government profits from forced disappearances
Syria’s government is profiting from money charged to families of people trying to find individuals who have been forcibly disappeared, Amnesty International said in a report on Thursday. The international rights organization said the Syrian state is benefiting from an “insidious black market in which family members desperate to find out the fates of their disappeared relatives are ruthlessly exploited for cash.” Nearly 60,000 civilians are believed to have been “disappeared” since Syria’s conflict began in 2011. Some people reported paying tens of thousands of dollars to try to find their relatives, according to Amnesty. Analysts say that since the start of the conflict, Syria’s economy has contracted by more than half, making forced disappearances a source of revenue for the government at a time of economic difficulty. [AFP, BBC, Washington Post, 11/5/2015]
Saudi Oil Minister says no need to cut energy subsidy
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Wednesday that the kingdom does not need to reduce its energy subsidies. He said slashing domestic energy assistance is a measure for “when you are in dire need, and fortunately Saudi Arabia isn’t today in such dire need.” He also rejected the notion that Saudi Arabia’s low domestic energy prices constitute a subsidy, because petrol and electricity are sold for more than the cost of production. Last week, Naimi said the government was studying the possibility of increasing domestic energy prices. Analysts said this was most likely to occur via small increases in petrol prices and a rise in power costs for industrial, corporate, and other large-scale users. [WSJ, Reuters, 11/4/2015]
Iraq seeking $6 billion from IMF, World Bank
The Iraqi government is expected to begin discussions this month with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this month to secure a $6 billion loan to help finance its budget deficit, according to government economic advisor Mazhar Mohammed Saleh. In July, the IMF approved a $1.24 billion emergency loan for Iraq. Iraq’s draft budget is due to be sent to the parliament’s finance committee by the end of this week, according to committee member Jabbar Ebadi. “The whole month of November may be devoted to discussions on next year’s budget, after which, the draft budget will be put to vote by the parliament in December,” he said. The Iraqi government may also issue local bonds worth $6.2 billion next year to help finance the budget deficit. [Zawya, 11/5/2015]
Yemen Central Bank agrees to support sagging currency
Yemen’s Central Bank has reached an agreement with commercial banks to try to support the currency. The official exchange rate of the rial has been fixed at around 214 to the dollar since 2010. Yemen’s civil war, however, has led to a hard currency shortage that pushed the free market rate down to about 270 per dollar last month from 243 in September. On Wednesday, sources said the free market rebounded to around 247 per dollar in response to the agreement between the central and commercial banks. Under the deal, commercial banks will provide merchants with dollars to cover their import needs and stop speculating on the rial. It is unclear whether the central and commercial banks will have enough hard currency to satisfy demand and support the rial in the long term. [Reuters, 11/4/2015]
Egypt changes wheat farmers’ subsidy system
Egypt will start buying local wheat from farmers at the average global price starting next season, marking a change in the way it subsidizes its wheat growers. In previous years, Egypt annually fixed a local procurement price for Egyptian wheat above global prices in an attempt to encourage farmers to grow the crop. But the high price led to smuggling in which foreign wheat, mostly Russian, is sold to the government and falsely labeled as Egyptian wheat. Under the new system, the government will directly subsidize wheat farmers by granting each of them 1,300 Egyptian pounds ($161.89) per feddan at a maximum of twenty-five feddans per farmer. In other news, Egypt’s foreign currency reserves increased to $16.415 billion in October from $16.335 billion the previous month, according to the Central Bank of Egypt.[Reuters, 11/5/2015]
EGYPT
Egypt, Russia dismiss UK, US suggestion that bomb caused plane crash
British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Wednesday there was a “significant possibility” the Russian jetliner that crashed in the Egyptian desert may have been brought down by a bomb, while British Prime Minister David Cameron said, “We cannot be certain that the Russian airliner was brought down by a terrorist bomb, but it looks increasingly likely that that was the case.” A US official briefed on the matter also said that Intercepted communications played a role in the tentative conclusion that the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) Egypt affiliate, Sinai State, planted an explosive device on the plane. Russia and Egypt dismissed the suggestion, with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev saying Thursday that it was too early to draw any conclusions about the causes of the crash, but ordered additional security measures. Alexander Neradko, head of Russian aviation agency Rosaviatsia, said he team investigating the crash will examine whether there was any explosive material onboard the plane. Egypt’s Civil Aviation Minister said investigators have found no evidence so far that an explosion brought down the plane, while Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said he was “somewhat surprised” by Cameron’s remarks. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Cameron agreed in a phone call Thursday on the need for “the tightest possible security” at the Sinai resort airport, London said. Meanwhile, the Sinai State dismissed in an audio message on Wednesday doubts that it had downed the plane, and said it would tell the world how it did so in its own time. As the investigation continues, all flights carrying British and Irish passengers home from Egypt were suspended on Wednesday, affecting around 20,000 British travellers. Egypt said on Thursday Britain’s decision to suspend flights was made without consulting Egyptian authorities, while Konstantin Kosachev, a senior member of Russia’s upper house of parliament, said Britain’s decision was motivated by London’s opposition to Russia’s actions in Syria. The White House Wednesday said it has no plans to update its flight advisory on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. No US airlines regularly operate out of Sinai and the Federal Aviation Administration has had a flight advisory for the area since March, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said. Follow The Guardian’s live on the story updates here. [AP, CNN, AFP, Reuters, Aswat Masriya, The Guardian, 11/5/2015]
Almost 3,000 candidates in second phase of parliamentary elections
The High Elections Committee (HEC) said in a press conference Thursday that 2,847 candidates will compete over 222 individual seats in the second phase of parliamentary elections scheduled for November 21-23. According to HEC spokesperson Omar Marwan, 28,204,225 voters are registered and nearly 15,000 judges will supervise over 12,000 local polling stations. The HEC will announce the final list of individual candidates on November 12 after all appeals are reviewed by the court. As campaigning begins, the Ministry of Religious Endowment renewed its warning against the use of worship places to campaign for elections, saying it would immediately revoke any preacher’s license if they use mosques to discuss parliamentary elections. Ayman Okeil, Director of the Maat Foundation and coordinator of the local-international joint observatory mission, said violations have already been documented as most candidates disregarded the dates set to start campaigning. Finally, the For the Love of Egypt (FLE), an alliance supportive of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, which won all sixty seats allocated to electoral lists in the first phase, said it will seek alliances with fellow member parties and independents to secure a parliamentary majority. [DNE, 11/5/2015]
Egypt court postpones Mubarak’s final trial over 2011 killing of protesters
Egypt’s Cassation Court on Thursday postponed to January 21 the final trial of former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak over the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising that ended his 30-year rule. The court is to look into a second appeal on the verdict, in which charges against Mubarak were dismissed in November 2014 due to a lack of evidence. The original session was to be held at the Supreme Court House and not at the Police Academy, according to Cassation Court protocols, and is the highest and last judicial step possible in the case. The upcoming court decision cannot be reversed and the defendant must be present in person. The case was postponed due to Mubarak’s absence, which Cairo security authorities apologized for in a letter sent to the court, stating that Mubarak is still recovering from a thigh fracture and needs ongoing medical attention for kidney and blood problems. [DNE, AMAY, Reuters, 10/5/2015]
For more in-depth Egypt news, please visit EgyptSource
LIBYA & THE MAGHREB
German to take up UN Libya post; Leon denies conflict of interest in new post
Veteran German diplomat Martin Kobler will replace UN Special Envoy Bernardino Leon and take over mediating stalled Libyan peace talks in the coming days, the United Nations said on Wednesday. Leon is set to head a United Arab Emirates (UAE) diplomatic academy. Britain’s Guardian newspaper reported that the Spanish diplomat was first offered the post in June, commenting that this called into question his impartiality as the UN’s chief peacemaker. The UAE backs the internationally recognized government in Libya’s east. Leon denied any conflict of interest and is due to give his final briefing to the Security Council on Thursday. [Reuters, 11/4/2015]
Forces holding Libya oil fields threaten to cut off exports
On Wednesday, the forces that control most of Libya’s oil fields threatened to cut off exports if foreign companies do not start wiring payments to the internationally recognized government in the country’s east. Foreign companies have thus far paid the Central Bank in Tripoli, which is controlled by militias who back the rival western government. The internationally recognized government recently set up its own Central Bank and National Oil Company. Ali al-Hassi, spokesman for the Oil Fields Guard, said that foreign companies must transfer funds to the new authorities. [AP, 11/4/2015]
NATO ready to assist Libya, but not militarily
NATO is ready to help the Libyan government, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in response to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s call to “finish the job” in Libya. Stoltenberg said that NATO is ready to support the reconstruction of armed forces, but he made clear that this would not involve major military operations. In an interview on the eve of a visit to London, Sisi said that NATO countries that had participated in the operation to oust Qaddafi should step up their support to Libya today. [ANSAmed, 11/4/2015]
Tunisian lawmakers suspend membership in ruling party, threatening split
Thirty lawmakers from Tunisia’s ruling Nidaa Tounes party suspended their membership on Wednesday over what they called attempts by President Beji Caid Essebsi’s son to control the party over the authority of the executive committee. It is a further sign of infighting between two camps within Nidaa Tounes party, which is at risk of splitting up and losing its lead position in the parliament to Islamist party rival Ennahda. Insiders say Nidaa Tounes is now divided into two wings, one led by the Tunisian president’s son Hafedh Caid Essebsi and the other by Mohsen Marzouk, a former leftist activist and the party’s secretary general. The members have said they will resign officially if there is no meeting of the executive committee within the week. [Reuters, AFP, TAP, Tunisia Live, 11/4/2015]
SYRIA & ITS NEIGHBORS
Russia sent missile systems to Syria, personnel force grows to 4,000
Russia sent anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria to back up its air campaign, commander of the Air Force Viktor Bondarev said in an interview. “We sent not just fighter planes, strike aircraft, and helicopters but also anti-aircraft rocket systems,” Bondarev said. He added that Russia made the decision to bring missile systems to Syria because “we took into account every possible threat … There could be various force majeure situations. Let’s imagine a military plane is hijacked and taken to a neighboring country and air strikes are aimed at us. And we have to be ready for this.” This news comes as Moscow’s military force in Syria has grown to about 4,000 personnel. [AFP, Reuters, 11/5/2015]
Pentagon welcomes advance by ISIS-fighting allies in Syria
A coalition including Syrian Arab groups regained territory in northeastern Syria from Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) militants, a US military spokesman said, calling it an encouraging success. The fighters, who are from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its Syrian Arab Coalition subgroup, regained 87 square miles near the town of al-Hawl, US military spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said. The group “conducted an attack … driving ISIL back,” Warren said. “This is not a large tactical action … [but] we are encouraged by what we saw.” The spokesman said the operation had pitted more than a thousand friendly forces against several hundred enemies in the vicinity after heavy US air strikes had cleared the way. [AFP, 11/5/52015]
Rebels seize military base in western Hama
Armed opposition factions have overrun a military base in the western countryside of Hama province after heavy clashes with Syrian regime troops. Rebel fighters seized Tal Othman base and the nearby village of Janabra, activist Mustafa Abu Arab said. The strategic hill was the Assad regime’s first line of defense in securing loyalist villages in the Ghab Plain. The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights reported mid-morning Thursday that the Islamist Jund al-Aqsa group and other rebel factions had taken “full control of large parts of Morek,” a town seized by regime forces in October 2014 after eight months of heavy clashes. The monitoring group also reported the “death and injury of dozens of regime forces members” and said it had received “confirmed information of human losses in the ranks of Jund al-Aqsa.” [NOW, Syrian Observer, 11/5/2015]
Water crisis leaves Damascus residents thirsty
Areas of Damascus and its countryside are facing of a shortage of potable water after the city’s network was destroyed during fighting between regime forces and Syrian opposition factions as they battled for control of the Barada River. Different regions in Damascus are experiencing shortages of drinking water, except for al-Maliki and some pro-regime neighborhoods, such as Mezzeh 86, which relies on water from wells that are decades old. The western and eastern countryside of the capital has faced water shortages and pollution after an explosion rocked the Barada water network between the villages of Ayn al-Fijeh and Deir Qanoun. Activists reported that the water pollution has resulted in high rates of jaundice and cholera in the villages and cities of the western countryside. Doctors and field hospitals struggle to treat the ill due to shortages of vaccines and medication. [Syrian Observer, 11/5/2015]
Kurdish rebels end unilateral ceasefire declaration
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) rebels fighting Turkey for autonomy ended a temporary unilateral ceasefire they had declared a month ago in their bid to reduce tensions ahead of Turkey’s November 1 election. A statement from a Kurdish umbrella organization said Thursday that the rebels had ended the ceasefire, citing the government’s “war policy” and “ongoing attacks.” Sixteen people were killed in clashes with the military in southeastern Turkey on Thursday, lifting this week’s death toll to almost forty in the mainly Kurdish area. One police officer was killed on Thursday during an operation against outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants in the Silvan district of southeastern Diyarbakır province, where a curfew had been declared. [AP, 11/5/2015]
Turkey agrees access to Cyprus army zone graves in search for missing
Turkey has agreed to allow access to graves in military zones in war-split Cyprus in a major breakthrough to a decades-old search for persons missing in past conflict, a team working under UN auspices said on Thursday. Turkey formally agreed to let exhumation teams inspect thirty known suspected burial sites in closed military areas in northern Cyprus, the Committee For Missing Persons (CMP) said in a statement released through the UN peacekeeping mission in Nicosia. Access would be given over a three-year period. More than 2,000 Greek and Turkish Cypriots disappeared in a 1974 war and intercommunal violence on the island over the decade prior to that. [AP, Reuters, 11/5/2015]
Former Iraqi Environment Minister jailed for corruption
Former Iraqi Environment Minister Sargon Lazar Slewa was sentenced to two years in prison for corruption and ordered to pay some $280,000 to the state, the judiciary said Thursday. Slewa, a Christian who served in former premier Nuri al-Maliki’s government, was tried on charges “related to corruption,” a judicial statement said. Widespread public anger over corruption and poor services led to weeks of protests earlier this year, pushing Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announce a series of reforms aimed at streamlining the government and combating graft. While officials such as Slewa are periodically punished for graft, more powerful politicians who have allegedly engaged in far greater corruption remain at large. [AFP, 11/5/2015]
For more in-depth Syria news and analysis, please visit SyriaSource.
YEMEN & THE GULF
Saudi and Yemeni UN ambassadors optimistic for Yemen peace talks
The Saudi and Yemeni ambassadors to the United Nations said Wednesday that they are optimistic over peace talks between the Yemeni government and Shia Houthi rebels scheduled for mid-November after weeks of preparations. Saudi Ambassador Abdallah al-Mouallimi and Yemen’s Ambassador Khalid Alyemany, after meeting members of the Yemeni community, said that the talks will focus on implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2216 that requires the rebels to withdraw from all areas they have seized and lay down arms captured in months of fighting. Alyemany said the agenda for the talks, likely to be held in Geneva, should be completed by the end of this week. At UN-brokered peace talks in Geneva on June 19, the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels failed to agree on even a temporary ceasefire. However, Alyemany is more hopeful about the success of upcoming peace talks. “We will be very flexible in the withdrawal process.” [NYT, 11/4/2015]
Yemeni government returns to Riyadh to find solution to Aden security situation
In an interview on Wednesday, Vice President and Yemeni Prime Minister Khaled Bahah said that Aden is not a suitable headquarters for the Yemeni government, as the cabinet has now returned to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Prime Minister Bahah added that the increased presence of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) requires further critical analysis of how to best resolve the security situation in Aden and elsewhere. He also said that the Yemeni government was concerned that al-Qaeda would make further inroads in Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt, expecting a “big confrontation” between the government and these extremist groups soon. However, Prime Minister Bahah added that government’s one-month stay in Aden had seen good results, despite the city’s failing infrastructure and concerning security situation. [Al Masdar (Arabic), 11/5/2015]
UN warns of flooding from Cyclone Chapala
While the United Nations is reporting that Cyclone Chapala is expected to weaken significantly over the next twelve hours, the immediate concern remains the welfare of an estimated 1 million people at risk from expected flooding in the two governorates of Shabwah and Hadramawt, where the storm’s impact is expected to be most severe. The Shabwah and Hadramawt governorates have a combined population of about 1.9 million people, 76 percent of whom are already in need of humanitarian assistance. Three deaths and thirty-four injuries have been reported so far. Since a conflict broke out between Houthi rebels and pro-government forces, backed by Saudi airstrikes, it is estimated that 21.1 million people, 80 percent of Yemen’s population, require some form of humanitarian protection or assistance. [UN News Centre, 11/5/2015]
Qatar seeks to deepen US ties
Qatar is hoping big investment and trade deals with the United States will help restore its position as a Middle East power broker after charges of World Cup graft, labor abuse, and links to militants damaged its standing. The country also wants to reverse what it sees as waning US interest in Gulf Arab states and ensure US rapprochement with Iran does not shift it from the center of Middle East politics. Despite Qatari concerns, Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken said the US partnership with Qatar was “absolutely essential and fundamental” to the US strategy in the region. [NYT, 11/4/2015]
Bahrain jails five for reported Iran-linked militancy
Five Bahrainis were convicted of conspiring with Iran to carry out attacks inside Bahrain, sentenced to life imprisonment, and stripped of their citizenship, said Bahrain’s Public Prosecutor. Bahrain accused Iran of trying to foment unrest among its majority Shia population, a claim that Iran denies. On Wednesday, the Interior Ministry said it had arrested forty-seven members of a group it said had communicated with members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with the aim of carrying out attacks on banks and public buildings. Last month, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Iran a day after the Gulf Arab state said its security forces had discovered a large bomb-making factory and had arrested a number of suspects linked to the Revolutionary Guard. [Reuters, 11/5/2015]
ECONOMICS
Amnesty says Syrian government profits from forced disappearances
Syria’s government is profiting from money charged to families of people trying to find individuals who have been forcibly disappeared, Amnesty International said in a report on Thursday. The international rights organization said the Syrian state is benefiting from an “insidious black market in which family members desperate to find out the fates of their disappeared relatives are ruthlessly exploited for cash.” Nearly 60,000 civilians are believed to have been “disappeared” since Syria’s conflict began in 2011. Some people reported paying tens of thousands of dollars to try to find their relatives, according to Amnesty. Analysts say that since the start of the conflict, Syria’s economy has contracted by more than half, making forced disappearances a source of revenue for the government at a time of economic difficulty. [AFP, BBC, Washington Post, 11/5/2015]
Saudi Oil Minister says no need to cut energy subsidy
Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Wednesday that the kingdom does not need to reduce its energy subsidies. He said slashing domestic energy assistance is a measure for “when you are in dire need, and fortunately Saudi Arabia isn’t today in such dire need.” He also rejected the notion that Saudi Arabia’s low domestic energy prices constitute a subsidy, because petrol and electricity are sold for more than the cost of production. Last week, Naimi said the government was studying the possibility of increasing domestic energy prices. Analysts said this was most likely to occur via small increases in petrol prices and a rise in power costs for industrial, corporate, and other large-scale users. [WSJ, Reuters, 11/4/2015]
Iraq seeking $6 billion from IMF, World Bank
The Iraqi government is expected to begin discussions this month with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this month to secure a $6 billion loan to help finance its budget deficit, according to government economic advisor Mazhar Mohammed Saleh. In July, the IMF approved a $1.24 billion emergency loan for Iraq. Iraq’s draft budget is due to be sent to the parliament’s finance committee by the end of this week, according to committee member Jabbar Ebadi. “The whole month of November may be devoted to discussions on next year’s budget, after which, the draft budget will be put to vote by the parliament in December,” he said. The Iraqi government may also issue local bonds worth $6.2 billion next year to help finance the budget deficit. [Zawya, 11/5/2015]
Yemen Central Bank agrees to support sagging currency
Yemen’s Central Bank has reached an agreement with commercial banks to try to support the currency. The official exchange rate of the rial has been fixed at around 214 to the dollar since 2010. Yemen’s civil war, however, has led to a hard currency shortage that pushed the free market rate down to about 270 per dollar last month from 243 in September. On Wednesday, sources said the free market rebounded to around 247 per dollar in response to the agreement between the central and commercial banks. Under the deal, commercial banks will provide merchants with dollars to cover their import needs and stop speculating on the rial. It is unclear whether the central and commercial banks will have enough hard currency to satisfy demand and support the rial in the long term. [Reuters, 11/4/2015]
Egypt changes wheat farmers’ subsidy system
Egypt will start buying local wheat from farmers at the average global price starting next season, marking a change in the way it subsidizes its wheat growers. In previous years, Egypt annually fixed a local procurement price for Egyptian wheat above global prices in an attempt to encourage farmers to grow the crop. But the high price led to smuggling in which foreign wheat, mostly Russian, is sold to the government and falsely labeled as Egyptian wheat. Under the new system, the government will directly subsidize wheat farmers by granting each of them 1,300 Egyptian pounds ($161.89) per feddan at a maximum of twenty-five feddans per farmer. In other news, Egypt’s foreign currency reserves increased to $16.415 billion in October from $16.335 billion the previous month, according to the Central Bank of Egypt.[Reuters, 11/5/2015]